Temporal and spatial evolution of trade relations between China and other G20 countries from the perspective of decoupling

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.11.2021729

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the trade data between China and other G20 countries from 2001 to 2019, this paper analyzed the evolution of bilateral trade pattern, analyzed the interdependence of bilateral trade by using trade intensity index and HM index, and analyzed the trade decoupling situation between China and other G20 countries by using decoupling model and catch-up decoupling model.The results show that: (1) China and other G20 countries show asymmetric trade interdependence. China's trade intensity with other G20 countries is greater than that with China, while other G20 countries are more dependent on China's market;(2) The trade decoupling relationship between China and other G20 countries has changed from weak negative decoupling to expansionary negative decoupling. The trade sensitivity has decreased first and then increased. It has experienced four evolution stages: weak negative decoupling, expansionary negative decoupling, relative decoupling I and expansionary negative decoupling;(3) The United States and South Korea have achieved absolute catch-up with Japan, and most countries have achieved relative catch-up with Japan and Saudi Arabia. China's economic and trade relations with other G20 countries tend to be negatively decoupled for a long time.The "relative decoupling" of China's economic and trade relations with other G20 countries exists objectively, but it will not be "fully decoupled".China should deepen cooperation in low sensitivity areas with trade decoupled countries, tap the potential of cooperation with trade connected countries, and actively build a "decoupled discourse system" with "adjustment of interaction and dependence" as the core.

Key words: trade relations, trade dependence, decoupling, China, G20 countries

摘要：

基于2001—2019年中国与其他G20国家贸易数据分析双边贸易格局演变，利用贸易强度指数和HM指数剖析双边贸易相互依赖程度，利用脱钩模型和追赶脱钩模型分析中国与其他G20国家贸易脱钩态势。研究表明：①中国与其他G20国家呈非对称贸易相互依赖，中国对其他G20国家贸易强度大于其他G20国家对中国贸易强度，而其他G20国家对中国的市场依赖度更高；②中国与其他G20国家贸易脱钩关系从弱负脱钩转变为扩张性负脱钩，贸易敏感性先降后增，经历了弱负脱钩、扩张性负脱钩、相对脱钩Ⅰ、扩张性负脱钩4个演变阶段；③美韩实现对日本的绝对追赶，大部分国家实现对日本和沙特阿拉伯的相对追赶，中国与其他G20国家经贸关系长期上趋于负脱钩。中国与其他G20 国家经贸关系“相对脱钩”是客观存在的，但并不会“全面脱钩”。中国应当深化同贸易脱钩国家的低敏感性领域合作，挖掘同贸易连接国家的合作潜力，积极构建以“互动关系与依赖关系调整”为核心的“脱钩”话语体系。

关键词: 贸易关系, 贸易依赖, 脱钩, 中国, G20国家

Na LI, Yuejing GE, Wei HU, Yu HUANG, Yanzheng LI, Li YE. Temporal and spatial evolution of trade relations between China and other G20 countries from the perspective of decoupling[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(11): 13-29.

李娜, 葛岳静, 胡伟, 黄宇, 李彦征, 冶莉. 基于脱钩视角的中国与其他G20国家贸易关系时空演变[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(11): 13-29.

Figures/Tables 10

Tab.1 Decoupling scale of economic and trade cooperation level

脱钩状态		脱钩内涵	D_it	△G	△C
负脱钩	扩张性负脱钩	双方同向增长，且G20对中国贸易增速更高	$[1, + ∞)$	>0	>0
负脱钩	弱负脱钩	双方同向增长，且中国对G20贸易增速更高	$(0,1)$	>0	>0
连接	相对脱钩Ⅰ	中国对G20贸易增速，G20对中国贸易减速	$(- ∞, 0)$	<0	>0
连接	相对脱钩Ⅱ	中国对G20贸易减速，G20对中国贸易增速	$(- ∞, 0)$	>0	<0
脱钩	强脱钩	双方同向减速，且G20对中国贸易减速更快	$[1, + ∞)$	<0	<0
脱钩	弱脱钩	双方同向减速，且中国对G20贸易递减更快	$(0,1)$	<0	<0

Tab.1 Decoupling scale of economic and trade cooperation level

脱钩状态		脱钩内涵	D_it	△G	△C
负脱钩	扩张性负脱钩	双方同向增长，且G20对中国贸易增速更高	$[1, + ∞)$	>0	>0
负脱钩	弱负脱钩	双方同向增长，且中国对G20贸易增速更高	$(0,1)$	>0	>0
连接	相对脱钩Ⅰ	中国对G20贸易增速，G20对中国贸易减速	$(- ∞, 0)$	<0	>0
连接	相对脱钩Ⅱ	中国对G20贸易减速，G20对中国贸易增速	$(- ∞, 0)$	>0	<0
脱钩	强脱钩	双方同向减速，且G20对中国贸易减速更快	$[1, + ∞)$	<0	<0
脱钩	弱脱钩	双方同向减速，且中国对G20贸易递减更快	$(0,1)$	<0	<0

Tab.2 Catching up types of common trading partners to im portant trading partners

追赶类型	中国出口贸易增长差距	G20出口贸易增长差距	追赶脱钩弹性系数	追赶效果
绝对追赶	<0	<0	$0 < D i t * < 1$	G20伙伴国出口贸易增长追赶效果更佳
绝对追赶	<0	<0	$D i t * > 1$	中国出口贸易增长追赶效果更佳
相对追赶Ⅰ	>0	<0	$0 < D i t * < 1$	G20伙伴国出口贸易增长追赶效果优于中国追赶效果
相对追赶Ⅱ	<0	>0	$D i t * > 1$ ， $0 < D i t * < 1$	中国出口贸易增长追赶效果优于G20伙伴国
未追赶	>0	>0	$D i t * > 1$ ， $0 < D i t * < 1$	中国出口贸易增长的差距较大
未追赶	>0	>0	$D i t * > 1$	G20伙伴国出口贸易增长差距较大

Tab.2 Catching up types of common trading partners to im portant trading partners

追赶类型	中国出口贸易增长差距	G20出口贸易增长差距	追赶脱钩弹性系数	追赶效果
绝对追赶	<0	<0	$0 < D i t * < 1$	G20伙伴国出口贸易增长追赶效果更佳
绝对追赶	<0	<0	$D i t * > 1$	中国出口贸易增长追赶效果更佳
相对追赶Ⅰ	>0	<0	$0 < D i t * < 1$	G20伙伴国出口贸易增长追赶效果优于中国追赶效果
相对追赶Ⅱ	<0	>0	$D i t * > 1$ ， $0 < D i t * < 1$	中国出口贸易增长追赶效果优于G20伙伴国
未追赶	>0	>0	$D i t * > 1$ ， $0 < D i t * < 1$	中国出口贸易增长的差距较大
未追赶	>0	>0	$D i t * > 1$	G20伙伴国出口贸易增长差距较大

Fig.1 Changes in trade volume between China and G20，2001-2019

Fig.2 Top 10 G20 countries in China's foreign trade in 2019

Fig.3 Trade intensity index between China and G20 countries， 2001-2019

Fig.4 HM index of China and G20 countries from 2001 to 2019

Fig.5 Spatiotemporal evolution of two-way trade links decoupling between China and G20 from 2001 to 2019

Fig.6 Spatial pattern of trade decoupling between China and G20 countries

Tab.3 Initial stages of trade development between China and G20 countries

发展阶段	进出口贸易范围/亿美元	普通贸易伙伴国	重要贸易伙伴国
初级程度	0.48~17.21	拉脱维亚、立陶宛、斯洛伐克、马耳他、斯洛文尼亚、卢森堡、保加利亚、塞浦路斯、克罗地亚、爱沙尼亚、葡萄牙、罗马尼亚、捷克、希腊、爱尔兰、土耳其、奥地利、匈牙利、波兰、丹麦、南非、阿根廷	沙特阿拉伯
进阶程度	20.67~75.93	芬兰、墨西哥、瑞典、印度、西班牙、巴西、比利时、印度尼西亚、加拿大、法国、意大利、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、荷兰、英国、德国、韩国、美国	日本

Fig.7 Catching up results of general trading partners to important trading partners in G20 from 2001 to 2019

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