Identification of the evolutionary stages of China's ports of entry system since the reform and opening-up and analysis of its opening features

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.12.2021960

Abstract

Abstract:

The ports of entry system is the spatial distribution and combination of a series of ports of different sizes and functions within a certain geographical area. Based on the data of port opening years from 1979-2019, this paper adopted Bai-Perron structural breakpoint test and Markov chain quantification to quantitatively divide the evolution stages of China's ports of entry system since the reform and opening-up, and analyzed the opening characteristics of each stage of the ports of entry system by considering the port opening time, type and policy factors. The results show that :(1) considering the spatio-temporal attributes of the opening of the ports of entry system, the Bai-Perron structural breakpoint test is used to identify five structural breakpoints in the evolution of the Chinese ports of entry system since the reform and opening-up, and the evolution process is further modified into five evolutionary stages by using the spatial changes of Markov chain transfer states. (2) Markov chain transfer matrix shows that the opening level of China's ports of entry system has fluctuated and increased since the reform and opening-up, and there is a significant convergence club in space, and the spatial pattern of the centralized opening is further strengthened.(3)Since the reform and opening-up, the evolution of China's ports of entry system has been characterized by significant openness in stages and has gone through five stages: "point-like opening along the coast, T-shaped opening along the coast, T-shaped opening along the river, belt-like opening of inland and border ports, full opening of airports, and all-round Multi-level and three-dimensional opening-up".

Key words: ports of entry system, spatio-temporal evolution, Bai and Perron's multiple structural breaks test, Markov chains, China

摘要：

口岸体系是一系列规模和功能不同的口岸在一定地域范围内的空间分布与组合。基于1979—2019年口岸开放年份的数据，对改革开放以来中国口岸体系演化阶段进行定量划分，综合考虑口岸开放时间、类型及政策因素分析各阶段口岸体系的开放特征。结果表明：（1）综合考虑口岸体系开放的时空属性，采用Bai-Perron结构断点检验法识别出改革开放以来中国口岸体系演化过程存在5个结构性断点，进一步利用马尔科夫转移类型的空间变化将演化过程修正为5个演化阶段。（2）马尔科夫转移概率矩阵显示，改革开放以来中国口岸体系开放水平波动上升，在空间上存在显著的趋同俱乐部，集中开放的空间格局进一步强化。（3）改革开放以来中国口岸体系演化阶段性轴线开放特征显著，开放特征存在“沿海沿边点状开放—沿海沿江T形开放—内陆与沿边口岸带状开放—航空口岸全面开放—全方位多层次立体化开放”的演化过程。

关键词: 口岸体系, 时空演化, Bai-Perron结构断点检验, 马尔科夫链, 中国

Zenglin HAN, Fan CAO, Jianke GUO, Fuxiang LI. Identification of the evolutionary stages of China's ports of entry system since the reform and opening-up and analysis of its opening features[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(12): 78-88.

韩增林, 曹凡, 郭建科, 李富祥. 改革开放以来中国口岸体系演化阶段识别及其开放特征分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(12): 78-88.

Figures/Tables 5

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断点	系数数量	残差平方和	对数-似然	Schwarz^* 准则	LWZ^*准则
估计断点年份：			1985、1992、1998、2007、2013
0	1	236 694.40	－235.73	8.75	8.80
1	3	40 004.05	－199.28	7.15	7.30
2	5	19 908.27	－184.98	6.64	6.89
3	7	11 006.58	－172.83	6.23	6.58
4	9	8 111.26	－166.57	6.10	6.57
5	11	6 303.26	－161.40	6.03	6.60

断点	系数数量	残差平方和	对数-似然	Schwarz^* 准则	LWZ^*准则
估计断点年份：			1985、1992、1998、2007、2013
0	1	236 694.40	－235.73	8.75	8.80
1	3	40 004.05	－199.28	7.15	7.30
2	5	19 908.27	－184.98	6.64	6.89
3	7	11 006.58	－172.83	6.23	6.58
4	9	8 111.26	－166.57	6.10	6.57
5	11	6 303.26	－161.40	6.03	6.60

t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	1979—1984年					t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	1985—1991年
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ
Ⅰ	326	0.926	0.071	0.006	0.000	0.000	Ⅰ	299	0.930	0.067	0.003	0.000	0.000
Ⅱ	35	0.000	0.800	0.171	0.029	0.000	Ⅱ	51	0.000	0.980	0.020	0.000	0.000
Ⅲ	3	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	Ⅲ	12	0.000	0.917	0.083	0.000	0.000
Ⅳ	3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.333	Ⅳ	3	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
Ⅴ	1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	Ⅴ	3	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333	0.333
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	1992—1997年					t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	1998—2006年
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ
Ⅰ	263	0.931	0.073	0.000	0.000	0.000	Ⅰ	244	0.947	0.053	0.000	0.000	0.000
Ⅱ	93	0.000	0.925	0.075	0.000	0.000	Ⅱ	105	0.000	0.914	0.076	0.000	0.000
Ⅲ	6	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.333	0.000	Ⅲ	11	0.000	0.091	0.909	0.000	0.000
Ⅳ	5	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	Ⅳ	5	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000
Ⅴ	1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	Ⅴ	3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	2007—2012年					t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	2013—2019年
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ
Ⅰ	230	0.974	0.026	0.000	0.000	0.000	Ⅰ	224	0.969	0.036	0.000	0.000	0.000
Ⅱ	111	0.000	0.973	0.027	0.000	0.000	Ⅱ	114	0.009	0.921	0.070	0.000	0.000
Ⅲ	18	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	Ⅲ	26	0.000	0.192	0.769	0.038	0.000
Ⅳ	6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.833	0.167	Ⅳ	2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
Ⅴ	3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.667	Ⅴ	2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	1979—1984年					t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	1985—1991年
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ
Ⅰ	326	0.926	0.071	0.006	0.000	0.000	Ⅰ	299	0.930	0.067	0.003	0.000	0.000
Ⅱ	35	0.000	0.800	0.171	0.029	0.000	Ⅱ	51	0.000	0.980	0.020	0.000	0.000
Ⅲ	3	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	Ⅲ	12	0.000	0.917	0.083	0.000	0.000
Ⅳ	3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.333	Ⅳ	3	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
Ⅴ	1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	Ⅴ	3	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333	0.333
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	1992—1997年					t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	1998—2006年
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ
Ⅰ	263	0.931	0.073	0.000	0.000	0.000	Ⅰ	244	0.947	0.053	0.000	0.000	0.000
Ⅱ	93	0.000	0.925	0.075	0.000	0.000	Ⅱ	105	0.000	0.914	0.076	0.000	0.000
Ⅲ	6	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.333	0.000	Ⅲ	11	0.000	0.091	0.909	0.000	0.000
Ⅳ	5	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	Ⅳ	5	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000
Ⅴ	1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	Ⅴ	3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	2007—2012年					t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	2013—2019年
t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	t_i/t_(i+1)	n_t	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ
Ⅰ	230	0.974	0.026	0.000	0.000	0.000	Ⅰ	224	0.969	0.036	0.000	0.000	0.000
Ⅱ	111	0.000	0.973	0.027	0.000	0.000	Ⅱ	114	0.009	0.921	0.070	0.000	0.000
Ⅲ	18	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	Ⅲ	26	0.000	0.192	0.769	0.038	0.000
Ⅳ	6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.833	0.167	Ⅳ	2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
Ⅴ	3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.667	Ⅴ	2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

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