Abstract:

Africa, as one of the regions with significant political instability in the world today, experiences ongoing armed conflicts that have a serious impact on the peace and stability of the region and the international situation. Based on data from three types of armed conflict points in the 54 countries of Africa, a study was conducted on the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of armed conflicts in Africa from 1989 to 2021, using statistical analysis, kernel density, average center, and hotspot analysis methods. The results are as follows:(1)From 1989 to 2021, armed conflicts in Africa showed a trend of increase, decrease, and then increase again, exhibiting an overall "U-shaped" development pattern. At the same time, the number of conflicts is on the rise, with the hierarchy of conflict types being state armed conflicts > one-sided violent armed conflicts > non-state armed conflicts;(2)The spatial distribution characteristics revealed by kernel density analysis show that armed conflict outbreak points in Africa roughly form a "three" pattern from North Africa to South Africa. The main concentration of armed conflict outbreaks is along the Mediterranean coast, the region around 10° north and south latitude that crosses the equator, and the southern region of Africa;(3)The migration of armed conflict centers in Africa is mainly concentrated in the central region of Africa, intersected by the equator. The migration path of the centers includes the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic;(4)In terms of the distribution of hotspots and cold-spots, the high concentration of armed conflicts in Africa is mainly found in the central region, the northern part of North Africa, and the northern part of East Africa. The relatively low-conflict areas are mainly located in the western part of West Africa, the southern part of Central Africa, the southern part of East Africa, and South Africa.

Key words: volatility, armed conflict, temporal and spatial patterns, evolutionary features, Africa

摘要：

非洲作为当今世界政局动荡的地区之一，纷争不断的武装冲突对地区和国际局势的和平稳定带来明显的影响和冲击。以非洲54个国家的三类武装冲突点数据为基础，综合运用统计分析法、核密度、平均中心及热点分析等方法，对非洲1989—2021年武装冲突的时空分布格局特征进行研究。结果发现：（1） 1989—2021年非洲武装冲突呈现先增后减再增加的趋势，总体呈“U”形发展格局，同时其冲突总量处于上升状态，且存在国家武装冲突＞单方面暴力武装冲突＞非国家武装冲突的局面。（2） 核密度空间分布特征方面，从北非到南非大致呈现出“三”字形的分布特征，武装冲突爆发点主要集中在地中海沿岸、南北纬10°区域及非洲南部地区。（3） 非洲武装冲突中心位置主要集中在赤道穿过的非洲中部地区，中心迁移路径则为刚果（金）-乍得-南苏丹-中非共和国。（4）冷热点分布情况显示，非洲武装冲突总量的热点高集聚区主要集中在非洲中部、北非北部及东非北部地区，相对冷点区域主要分布在西非西部、中非南部、东非南部及南非地区。

关键词: 局势动荡, 武装冲突, 时空格局, 演变特征, 非洲