Abstract:

Urban shrinkage is a process-phenomenon-problem comprehensive concept of the continuous outflow and factor outflow effect coupling of development factors such as population, capital, factories and enterprises, which has brought great impact on the traditional "growth scenario simulation" urbanization development model. The specific impact and its internal mechanism have become the key scientific problems to be solved in the high-quality development of new urbanization and the practice of urban regional planning in the new era. Based on this, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the three provinces of Northeast China based on the comparative inductive analysis method (shrinking cities and non-shrinking cities, different development stages and different development types of shrinking cities). The results show that: (1) The urbanization development of shrinking cities in the three northeast provinces has the characteristics of stage, type and spatial heterogeneity, and there is an obvious shrinking effect of urbanization; the urbanization level and its subsystem urbanization level show the development and evolution characteristics of "non-shrinking cities > shrinking cities, early-shrinking cities > late-shrinking cities > mid-shrinking cities, resource-dependent shrinking cities > comprehensive shrinking cities > siphon-type shrinking cities > location-constrained shrinking cities, axis + core-periphery"; (2)Shrinking cities are due to the relative or absolute decline of their own "development capacity", and inhibits the driving force of urbanization development—hinder the convergence of population and raw materials in surrounding radiation rural areas, and reduce urban input-output efficiency in the process of urbanization, making its urbanization development grow slowly and showing the above-mentioned development characteristics. However, it also leads to the paper's reflection on whether the existing urbanization level and its measurement methods based on "growth simulation" are used in shrinking cities.

Key words: shrinking cities, urbanization, shrinking effect, action mechanism, the three provinces of Northeast China

摘要：

城市收缩是一个人口、资本、企业等发展要素不断外流，以及要素外流-效应耦合的过程、现象相统一的综合概念，给基于增长的传统城镇化发展模式带来了极大的冲击。城市收缩影响城市化的过程和内在作用机理，成为新时期新型城镇化、城市高质量发展，及城市-区域规划实践中需解决的关键性科学问题。基于对收缩城市与非收缩城市、收缩城市不同发展阶段，以及不同发展类型分组的归纳比较，以东北三省为案例展开了实证分析。结果表明：（1）东北三省收缩城市城镇化发展具有阶段性、类型性和空间分布异质性特征，存在明显的城镇化收缩效应；城镇化总体水平及其子系统城镇化水平呈现出“非收缩城市>收缩城市、收缩初期城市>收缩后期城市>收缩中期城市、资源依赖型收缩城市>综合型收缩城市>虹吸型收缩城市>区位制约型收缩城市”的发展演化特征，且呈现“轴带+核心-外围”的格局；（2）收缩城市源于自身发展势能的相对或绝对下降而对城镇化发展动力产生抑制作用，包括阻碍城镇化过程中城市对周边地区人口、原材料的汇聚作用，降低城市投入产出效率等，使其城镇化发展缓慢，进一步引发了对现有基于“增长情景模拟”的城镇化水平及其测度方法是否适用于收缩城市的反思。本研究为东北三省等收缩型城市较为集中的地区提供了城市化发展的新视角，可为东北振兴、东北三省区域一体化和收缩型城市城镇化的高质量发展提供参考与借鉴。

关键词: 收缩城市, 城镇化, 收缩效应, 作用机理, 东北三省