Abstract:

New urbanization is a people-oriented sustainable urbanization,however, the integration of the agricultural transfer population into urban life is often thwarted by social isolation and institutional exclusion. This paper analyzes the formation mechanisms of settlement intentions of agricultural migrants, and divides social capital into relational social capital and institutional social capital. Based on data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this paper employs a Probit model, instrumental variables, and KHB mediation effect analysis to empirically probe the impact of social capital. The findings indicate that the settlement intentions of the agricultural transfer population are significantly influenced by the social capital in both in-migration and out-migration areas. Relational and institutional social capital in the in-migration area markedly bolsters settlement intentions, while the same forms of social capital in the out-migration area substantially dampen them. The accumulation of social capital among agricultural transfer directly shapes their settlement intentions through identity formation. To advance the urban assimilation of the agricultural transfer population, the paper suggests prioritizing the development of local social ties and the safeguarding of public rights and interests to foster the accumulation of their social capital.

Key words: social capital, settlement intentions, probit model, identity

摘要：

新型城镇化是“以人为本”的可持续城镇化，但社会隔离和制度排斥阻碍了农业转移人口进城定居的进程。基于社会资本理论，将社会资本分为迁入地和户籍地的关系型社会资本和制度型社会资本，利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据，采用Probit模型、工具变量法、KHB中介效应分析方法，实证检验了不同类型的社会资本对农业转移人口定居意愿的影响机制。研究发现，农业转移人口的定居意愿受到迁入地和户籍地社会资本的双重作用，迁入地社会资本能够显著提升定居意愿，而户籍地社会资本则会显著降低定居意愿。此外，农业转移人口社会资本的本地积累也会通过影响其身份认同进而影响其定居意愿。因此，有序推动农业转移人口进城定居需要从农业转移人口的本地社会关系构建入手，并保障其集体权益与社会权益，从多方面促进农业转移人口社会资本的积累，促进他们与城市社会的融合。

关键词: 社会资本, 定居意愿, Probit模型, 身份认同