2000—2020年中国人口老龄化时空演变及影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.05.20220367

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2000、2010和2020年三次人口普查数据，应用指数增长和Tobit回归模型分析2000—2020年中国地级及以上行政区人口老龄化时空格局、区域差异以及影响因素，结果表明：①中国人口老龄化空间分布以“胡焕庸线”为明显分界，“胡焕庸线”西北半壁老龄化程度显著低于东南半壁；②年轻型、成年型区域不断减少，老年型区域呈现大幅度空间扩张，其中老年型Ⅱ期“核心-外围”分布特征明显，老年型Ⅲ期呈现近“L”形结构；③老龄化速度空间差异特征显著，2000—2010年快速老龄化区域主要分布于新疆、内蒙古、甘肃、黑龙江、四川等省份，2010—2020年则主要分布于黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、甘肃、内蒙古等省份；④20年间，资源型城市、省会城市老龄化率逐渐高于非资源型、非省会城市；⑤基期人口年龄结构是影响人口老龄化的主导性因素，经济因素对人口老龄化有双向影响，地形起伏度、净迁移率、自然增长率等因素与老龄化率负相关。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 城市尺度, 时空分异, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the data of three population censuses in 2000, 2010 and 2020, the spatio-temporal pattern, regional differences and influencing factors of population aging in cities at and above the prefecture level in China are analyzed by using exponential growth and Tobit Regression Model. The results show that:①The spatial distribution of population aging in China is clearly divided by the "Hu line", and the degree of aging in the northwest half of the "Hu line" is significantly lower than that in the southeast half; ②The young type and adult type areas continue to decrease, and the elderly type area shows a large spatial expansion. Among them, the "core periphery" distribution characteristics of the elderly type Ⅱ are obvious, and the elderly type Ⅲ presents a near L-shaped structure; ③There are significant spatial differences in the speed of aging. From 2000 to 2010, the rapid aging areas were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Heilongjiang, Sichuan and other provinces, while from 2010 to 2020, they were mainly distributed in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other provinces; ④ In the past 20 years, the aging degree of resource-based cities and provincial capital cities is gradually higher than that of non-resource-based and non-provincial capital cities; ⑤The age structure of the population in the base period is the dominant factor affecting population aging. Economic factors have a two-way impact on population aging. Topographic relief, net migration rate, natural growth rate and other factors are negatively correlated with the aging rate.

Key words: population aging, urban scale, spatiotemporal differentiation, China

邬林果, 武荣伟, 杨德刚. 2000—2020年中国人口老龄化时空演变及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(5): 163-176.

Linguo WU, Rongwei WU, Degang YANG. Spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors of population aging in China from 2000 to 2020[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(5): 163-176.

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年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重/%	老龄人口/万	老龄化率/%
2000	资源型	38 358.49	30.85	2 561.87	6.68
2000	非资源型	85 986.29	69.15	6 370.45	7.29
2010	资源型	39 462.19	29.59	3 497.44	8.86
2010	非资源型	93 912.13	70.41	8 402.10	8.95
2020	资源型	38 499.39	27.31	5 406.46	14.04
2020	非资源型	102 472.37	72.69	13 657.74	13.33

年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重/%	老龄人口/万	老龄化率/%
2000	资源型	38 358.49	30.85	2 561.87	6.68
2000	非资源型	85 986.29	69.15	6 370.45	7.29
2010	资源型	39 462.19	29.59	3 497.44	8.86
2010	非资源型	93 912.13	70.41	8 402.10	8.95
2020	资源型	38 499.39	27.31	5 406.46	14.04
2020	非资源型	102 472.37	72.69	13 657.74	13.33

年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重%	老龄人口/万	老龄化率/%
2000	省会	22 377.13	18.00	1 707.81	7.63
2000	非省会	101 967.64	82.00	7 124.51	6.99
2010	省会	26 628.13	19.96	2 387.73	8.97
2010	非省会	106 746.20	80.04	9 511.81	8.91
2020	省会	32 339.86	22.94	4 126.52	12.76
2020	非省会	108 631.90	77.06	14 937.68	13.75

年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重%	老龄人口/万	老龄化率/%
2000	省会	22 377.13	18.00	1 707.81	7.63
2000	非省会	101 967.64	82.00	7 124.51	6.99
2010	省会	26 628.13	19.96	2 387.73	8.97
2010	非省会	106 746.20	80.04	9 511.81	8.91
2020	省会	32 339.86	22.94	4 126.52	12.76
2020	非省会	108 631.90	77.06	14 937.68	13.75

变量类型		指标名称（符号）	指标说明	数据来源
被解释变量		老龄化率（AGPOP）	65岁及以上人口比例	中国人口普查分县资料
解释变量	人口因素	净迁移率（MI）	净迁移人数/户籍人口总数	城市统计年鉴
		自然增长率（NGR）	自然增长人口/年平均人口	城市统计年鉴
		55~65岁人口占总人口比例（APA）	前一时期55~65岁人口/总人口	中国人口普查分县资料
	自然环境因素	地形起伏度（RDLS）	最高海拔与最低海拔的差值与地表切割深度的综合表现	采用窗口分析等方法提取栅格尺度的地形起伏度
	经济因素	人均GDP（PGDP）	人均国内生产总值	城市统计年鉴
	经济因素	城镇居民人均可支配收入（UDPI）	各地级市城镇居民人均可支配收入	各省统计年鉴
	社会因素	平均受教育年限（EDU）	15岁及以上人口的平均受教育年限	中国人口普查分县资料