中国城市科技人才分布的时空格局及影响因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.08.20240726

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科技人才是国家科技创新资源最重要的组成部分，合理的科技人才分布关系到我国创新型国家战略目标的实现，对推动新质生产力发展至关重要。本文构建了人才流动的多维动因分析框架，运用空间统计分析和地理探测器方法，剖析中国城市科技人才分布的时空特征及其影响因素的交互作用。研究结果发现：①中国城市科技人才规模分布表现出极不均衡性，西部城市呈现出不稳定的减弱态势。②东中部与西部城市科技人才分布的密度存在较大差距，并呈现扩大趋势，形成“东强中西弱”和以五大城市群为核心的分布格局。③科技人才分布呈现显著的正空间自相关性，由高-高型集聚城市组成的科技人才集聚区以及由低-低型集聚城市组成的人才流失区正对其相邻城市产生同质化影响，而部分省会城市和核心城市所构建“中心-外围”的人才聚集格局正面临瓦解。④科技人才分布的时空格局是多种因素共同作用的结果。其中，影响较大的是职业需求、创新环境与研发投入，影响因子间有显著的双因子增强作用，但各维度影响因子的交互作用有较大差异。研究揭示了科技人才分布的时空格局及与“四位一体”人才流动机制的关系，为推动合理有序的城市科技人才政策制定提供了理论和实证依据。

关键词: 科技人才, 时空特征, 空间集聚, 地理探测器

Abstract:

Scientific and technological talents are the most important component of national scientific and technological innovation resources. Reasonable and orderly talent distribution is related to the achievement of China's innovative national strategic goals and is crucial for promoting the development of new quality productivity. This article establishes a multidimensional analysis framework for talent mobility, using spatial statistical analysis and geographic detectors to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the flow of science and technology talents in Chinese cities and the spatial heterogeneity of their influencing factors. The research results found that: ①The scale distribution of scientific and technological talents shows extreme imbalance, and western cities show an unstable weakening trend.②There is a significant gap in the distribution density of scientific and technological talents between the eastern, central, and western cities, and there is a trend of expansion, forming a distribution pattern of "strong in the east and weak in the west" and centered around the five major urban agglomerations. ③The flow of scientific and technological talents shows a significant positive spatial autocorrelation. The inflow areas of scientific and technological talents composed of high high agglomeration cities and the outflow areas of talents composed of low low agglomeration cities are having a homogenized impact on their neighboring cities, while the "center periphery" talent aggregation pattern constructed by some provincial capitals and core cities in the west is facing disintegration. ④The spatial and temporal pattern of the flow of technological talents is the result of multiple factors working together. Among them, the factors that have a significant impact are career demand, innovation environment, and R&D investment. There is a significant dual factor enhancement effect among the influencing factors, but the interaction between the influencing factors in each dimension varies greatly. The study reveals the spatiotemporal pattern of the flow of scientific and technological talents and their relationship with the "four in one" talent flow mechanism, providing theoretical and empirical basis for promoting the rational and orderly formulation of urban scientific and technological talent policies.

Key words: technological talents, spatiotemporal characteristics, spatial aggregation, geographic detector

刘勤, 刘澄浩, 王光辉. 中国城市科技人才分布的时空格局及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(8): 183-196.

Qin LIU, Chenghao LIU, Guanghui WANG. Analysis of the spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors of the scientific and technological talents distribution in Chinese cities[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(8): 183-196.

图/表 7

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方面	维度	变量	解释
政策环境特征	创新环境	X1	省级以上开发区数/个
	创新环境	X2	人均发明专利授权数/（件/人）
	科技投入	X3	地方财政一般预算内科学研究支出/万元
城市经济特征	经济水平	X4	人均GDP/元
	产业结构	X5	产业高级化系数
	成本支出	X6	人均全社会零售总额/（元/人）
	成本支出	X7	平均住宅价格/（元/m²）
城市品质特征	区位自然条件	X8	海拔/m
	区位自然条件	X9	地形坡度/°
	基础设施条件	X10	城市建设用地占比/%
	基础设施条件	X11	城市建成区路网密度
	公共服务保障	X12	每万人医院（卫生）床位数量/（床/每万人）
		X13	建成区绿化覆盖率/%
		X14	普通高等学校数/所
个体需求	个人生活	X15	在岗职工平均收入/（元/人）
个体需求	职业需求	X16	规模以上工业企业数/个

方面	维度	变量	解释
政策环境特征	创新环境	X1	省级以上开发区数/个
	创新环境	X2	人均发明专利授权数/（件/人）
	科技投入	X3	地方财政一般预算内科学研究支出/万元
城市经济特征	经济水平	X4	人均GDP/元
	产业结构	X5	产业高级化系数
	成本支出	X6	人均全社会零售总额/（元/人）
	成本支出	X7	平均住宅价格/（元/m²）
城市品质特征	区位自然条件	X8	海拔/m
	区位自然条件	X9	地形坡度/°
	基础设施条件	X10	城市建设用地占比/%
	基础设施条件	X11	城市建成区路网密度
	公共服务保障	X12	每万人医院（卫生）床位数量/（床/每万人）
		X13	建成区绿化覆盖率/%
		X14	普通高等学校数/所
个体需求	个人生活	X15	在岗职工平均收入/（元/人）
个体需求	职业需求	X16	规模以上工业企业数/个

作用维度	指标维度	指标	科技人才流动率
作用维度	指标维度	指标	q 统计值	p 值
政策环境特征	创新环境	X1	0.435^***	0.000
	创新环境	X2	0.643^***	0.000
	人才政策	X3	0.705^***	0.000
城市经济特征	经济水平	X4	0.450^***	0.000
	产业结构	X5	0.360^***	0.000
	成本支出	X6	0.497^***	0.000
	成本支出	X7	0.504^***	0.000
城市品质特征	区位自然条件	X8	0.197^***	0.000
	区位自然条件	X9	0.152^***	0.000
	基础设施条件	X10	0.477^***	0.000
	基础设施条件	X11	0.036^***	0.100
	公共服务保障	X12	0.483^***	0.000
		X13	0.181^***	0.025
		X14	0.466^***	0.000
个体需求	个人生活	X15	0.243^***	0.048
个体需求	职业需求	X16	0.722^***	0.000

作用维度	指标维度	指标	科技人才流动率
作用维度	指标维度	指标	q 统计值	p 值
政策环境特征	创新环境	X1	0.435^***	0.000
	创新环境	X2	0.643^***	0.000
	人才政策	X3	0.705^***	0.000
城市经济特征	经济水平	X4	0.450^***	0.000
	产业结构	X5	0.360^***	0.000
	成本支出	X6	0.497^***	0.000
	成本支出	X7	0.504^***	0.000
城市品质特征	区位自然条件	X8	0.197^***	0.000
	区位自然条件	X9	0.152^***	0.000
	基础设施条件	X10	0.477^***	0.000
	基础设施条件	X11	0.036^***	0.100
	公共服务保障	X12	0.483^***	0.000
		X13	0.181^***	0.025
		X14	0.466^***	0.000
个体需求	个人生活	X15	0.243^***	0.048
个体需求	职业需求	X16	0.722^***	0.000