对外直接投资对我国外贸高质量发展的影响研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.10.20222485

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建外贸高质量发展三级指标体系测算2006—2019年我国外贸发展水平，采用系统GMM回归方法实证检验对外直接投资对我国外贸高质量发展影响的动态效应。研究发现：第一，当期与上一期OFDI均能显著促进我国外贸高质量发展；第二，不同经济区域的回归结果表明，东部地区和西部地区当期与上一期OFDI对我国外贸高质量发展的影响显著为正；中部地区OFDI的促进作用主要体现在上一期；东北地区OFDI的促进作用主要体现在当期；第三，是否为“一带一路”省份的回归结果表明，“一带一路”省份当期和上一期OFDI均能显著促进外贸高质量发展，而非“一带一路”省份OFDI的促进效应仅体现在上一期；第四，“一带一路”倡议实施前，中国31省OFDI对外贸高质量发展的影响仅体现在上一期，“一带一路”倡议实施后31省当期与上一期OFDI均具有显著促进效应；第五，通过检验影响机制发现，当期和上一期OFDI均能通过经济发展质量的传导机制促进外贸高质量发展，上一期OFDI通过逆向技术溢出和劳动力成本促进外贸高质量发展。

关键词: OFDI, 外贸高质量发展, “一带一路”, 系统GMM

Abstract:

China's economy has changed from high-speed growth to a high-quality development stage, foreign trade plays a crucial role in high-quality economic development. Constructs a three-level evaluation system for the development of foreign trade, calculates the foreign trade of high-quality development level from 2006 to 2019, and empirically tests the dynamic effect of outward foreign direct investment on the high-quality development of China's foreign trade by systematic GMM, research find: First of all, current and previous OFDI can significantly promote the high-quality development of foreign trade; Secondly, the regression results of different economic regions show that the current and last period OFDI of eastern and western regions has a significantly positive impact on the high-quality development of foreign trade, central region was mainly reflected in the last period, northeast mainly reflected in the current period; Thirdly, OFDI of the "Belt and Road" provinces can significantly promote the high-quality development of foreign trade in both the current and the last period, while OFDI of non-provinces only promotes in the last period; Fourthly, before implementation of the "Belt and Road", China's OFDI of 31 provinces only had an impact on the high-quality development of foreign trade in the last period, after implementation both current period and the last period had a significant promotion effect; Fifthly, it is found that both current and last period OFDI of promote the high-quality development of foreign trade through the transmission mechanism of the quality of economic, last period OFDI can promote the high-quality development of foreign trade through reverse technology spillover and labor cost.

Key words: OFDI, high-quality development of foreign trade, "the Belt and Road", system GMM

程显宏, 杨珺涵, 姜国刚. 对外直接投资对我国外贸高质量发展的影响研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(10): 83-99.

Xianhong CHENG, Junhan YANG, Guogang JIANG. Research on the influence of outward foreign direct investment on the high-quality development of Chinese foreign trade[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(10): 83-99.

图/表 9

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	来源
外贸高质量发展基础A	贸易环境基础A₁	全要素生产率A₁₁	SFA计算
		贸易政策不确定性A₁₂	Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
		经济政策不确定性A₁₃	Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
		互联网用户数A₁₄	国家统计局
	人力资源禀赋基础A₂	劳动力资源禀赋A₂₁	世界银行
	人力资源禀赋基础A₂	高等院校入学率（占总人数的百分比）A₂₂	世界银行
外贸高质量发展结构B	服务贸易规模和竞争力B₁	服务贸易对外贸易依存度B₁₁	WTO数据库
		服务贸易竞争力指数（TC）B₁₂
		显性比较优势（RCA）B₁₃
		服务贸易外贸市场占有率B₁₄
	工业制成品贸易规模和竞争力B₂	工业制成品对外贸易依存度B₂₁	中经网
		工业制成品竞争力指数（TC）B₂₂
		工业制成品外贸市场占有率B₂₃
	高科技产品贸易规模和竞争力B₃	高科技产品对外贸易依存度B₃₁	中经网
		高科技产品竞争力指数（TC）B₃₂
		高科技产品外贸市场占有率B₃₃
外贸高质量发展潜力C	外贸发展科研基础C₁	研究与实验发展经费支出C₁₁	中经网
		研究与试验发展人员全时当量C₁₂
		国内上市公司总数C₁₃
		普通高等学校数C₁₄
	外贸发展科研潜力C₂	技术合作捐助C₂₁	世界银行
		支付知识产权使用费C₂₂
		非居民专利申请量C₂₃
		发明专利申请数C₂₄	中经网
		高校国外发表科技论文数C₂₅	中经网
外贸高质量发展环境D	国内发展环境D₁	科技进步贡献率D₁₁	中国科技统计年鉴
	国内发展环境D₁	中国经济增长D₁₂（GDP增长）	世界银行
	世界发展环境D₂	世界经济增长D₂₁（GDP增长）	EPS数据库
		世界各国政策和制度评估（CPIA）贸易评级D₂₂	EPS数据库
		目前有效的区域贸易协定累积D₂₃(按生效年份计算)	WTO数据库

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	来源
外贸高质量发展基础A	贸易环境基础A₁	全要素生产率A₁₁	SFA计算
		贸易政策不确定性A₁₂	Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
		经济政策不确定性A₁₃	Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
		互联网用户数A₁₄	国家统计局
	人力资源禀赋基础A₂	劳动力资源禀赋A₂₁	世界银行
	人力资源禀赋基础A₂	高等院校入学率（占总人数的百分比）A₂₂	世界银行
外贸高质量发展结构B	服务贸易规模和竞争力B₁	服务贸易对外贸易依存度B₁₁	WTO数据库
		服务贸易竞争力指数（TC）B₁₂
		显性比较优势（RCA）B₁₃
		服务贸易外贸市场占有率B₁₄
	工业制成品贸易规模和竞争力B₂	工业制成品对外贸易依存度B₂₁	中经网
		工业制成品竞争力指数（TC）B₂₂
		工业制成品外贸市场占有率B₂₃
	高科技产品贸易规模和竞争力B₃	高科技产品对外贸易依存度B₃₁	中经网
		高科技产品竞争力指数（TC）B₃₂
		高科技产品外贸市场占有率B₃₃
外贸高质量发展潜力C	外贸发展科研基础C₁	研究与实验发展经费支出C₁₁	中经网
		研究与试验发展人员全时当量C₁₂
		国内上市公司总数C₁₃
		普通高等学校数C₁₄
	外贸发展科研潜力C₂	技术合作捐助C₂₁	世界银行
		支付知识产权使用费C₂₂
		非居民专利申请量C₂₃
		发明专利申请数C₂₄	中经网
		高校国外发表科技论文数C₂₅	中经网
外贸高质量发展环境D	国内发展环境D₁	科技进步贡献率D₁₁	中国科技统计年鉴
	国内发展环境D₁	中国经济增长D₁₂（GDP增长）	世界银行
	世界发展环境D₂	世界经济增长D₂₁（GDP增长）	EPS数据库
		世界各国政策和制度评估（CPIA）贸易评级D₂₂	EPS数据库
		目前有效的区域贸易协定累积D₂₃(按生效年份计算)	WTO数据库

成分	初始特征值			旋转载荷平方和
成分	总计	方差百分比	累积 /%	总计	方差百分比	累积 /%
1	20.752	69.172	69.172	17.415	58.051	58.051
2	3.136	10.452	79.624	4.571	15.238	73.289
3	2.049	6.830	86.454	2.981	9.935	83.225
4	1.595	5.316	91.770	1.945	6.485	89.709
5	1.241	4.138	95.908	1.859	6.198	95.908

成分	初始特征值			旋转载荷平方和
成分	总计	方差百分比	累积 /%	总计	方差百分比	累积 /%
1	20.752	69.172	69.172	17.415	58.051	58.051
2	3.136	10.452	79.624	4.571	15.238	73.289
3	2.049	6.830	86.454	2.981	9.935	83.225
4	1.595	5.316	91.770	1.945	6.485	89.709
5	1.241	4.138	95.908	1.859	6.198	95.908

变量	变量描述	样本数	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
Highd	外贸高质量发展，指标体系计算获得	434	0.564	0.833	－0.636	1.901
lnOFDI	各省对外直接投资存量，取对数	434	11.990	2.217	4.605	16.814
lnGDP	各省人均GDP，取对数	434	10.495	0.613	8.717	12.009
lnPop	劳动力禀赋，各省人口总数，取对数	434	8.099	0.856	5.652	9.352
lnStruct	第三产业与第二产业增加值之比，取对数	434	0.017	0.4042	－1.643	0.694
lnOpen	各省进出口总额与其GDP 之比值，取对数	434	2.880	0.975	0.237	5.142
lnRail	各省铁路总里程，取对数	434	7.893	0.784	5.595	9.535
lnCpi	各省居民消费价格指数，取对数	434	4.632	0.018	4.581	4.701
lnGss	各省高校师生比，取对数	434	2.854	0.066	2.601	3.061
lnNfdi	OFDI逆向技术溢出，取对数	434	9.014	2.088	1.659	13.524
lnWage	劳动力成本，取对数	434	1.495	0.494	0.416	2.814
Stfp	经济发展质量，以各省全要素生产率代替	434	1.555	0.740	0.070	2.900