21世纪海上丝绸之路港口贸易韧性发展与中国战略响应

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.08.20230243

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以21 世纪海上丝绸之路沿线53个港口为研究对象，选取2008—2019年港口集装箱吞吐量数据，从抵抗力和恢复力两个维度测度港口贸易韧性发展水平，运用标准差椭圆等方法研究沿线港口贸易韧性分布格局与时空演化规律。结果表明：①海上丝绸之路沿线港口贸易韧性表现良好，恢复力远高于全球港口平均水平，整体韧性上升态势明显。②沿线港口贸易韧性的分布格局总体呈现西北-东南方向，东西方向延伸差异比南北方向差异更为显著，在时空演化上表现为分布更加分散，空间差异逐渐减小。③中国各港口在三次冲击中韧性值差异显著，整体呈现稳中向好的发展态势。基于研究结论，提出中国港口发展的战略响应对策：将韧性发展纳入港口高质量发展评价体系，强化与重要战略港口的差异化合作策略，响应世界航运和贸易重心东移的行业趋势，加快形成内外循环相互促进的港口发展新格局。

关键词: 21世纪海上丝绸之路, 港口贸易韧性, 战略响应, “一带一路”倡议

Abstract:

Taking 53 ports along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road as the research object, container throughput data of ports from 2008 to 2019 were selected to measure the port trade resilience and analyze the characteristics from two dimensions of resistance and resilience. The results show that: ①The resilience of ports along the Maritime Silk Road is good, and the resilience is much higher than the global average level of ports, and the overall resilience is obviously on the rise.②The overall pattern of port trade resilience along the route presents a northwest southeast direction, with more significant differences in east-west extension compared to north-south direction. In terms of spatial-temporal evolution, the distribution is more dispersed, and spatial differences continue to decrease.③In the three shocks, the resilience values of Chinese ports differ significantly, and the overall development trend is stable and good. According to the research conclusions, policy suggestions are put forward: incorporating resilient development into high-quality port development evaluation system, strengthen differentiated cooperation strategies with important strategic ports, respond to the industry trend of the world shipping and trade center moving eastward, and Accelerate the forming a new port development pattern in which internal and external circulation promote each other.

Key words: 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, port trade resilience, strategic response, the Belt and Road Initiative

蒋自然, 黎晨晟, 庞金萍, 朱华友. 21世纪海上丝绸之路港口贸易韧性发展与中国战略响应[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(8): 1-13.

Ziran JIANG, Chensheng LI, Jinping PANG, Huayou ZHU. Port trade resilience development along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and China's strategic response[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(8): 1-13.

图/表 8

表1 研究区港口

Tab.1 Ports in the research area

地区	港口
非洲	苏丹港、亚历山大港、德班港、拉各斯港
中东	杰贝阿里港、迪拜港、达曼港
欧洲	里斯本港、鹿特丹港、阿尔赫西拉斯港、巴塞罗那港、萨沃纳港、威尼斯港、卡拉拉港、卡塔尼亚港、热那亚港、圣彼得堡港、伊斯坦布尔港、伊兹密尔港、不来梅港、汉堡港、安特卫普港
东亚	大连港、天津港、青岛港、上海港、深圳港、广州港、宁波舟山港、厦门港、台中港、基隆港、高雄港、香港港、釜山港、东京港
东南亚	丹绒柏勒巴斯港、新加坡港、曼谷港、林查班港、仰光港、海防港、胡志明港、雅加达港、关丹港、巴生港、槟城港、马尼拉港、卡拉奇港、西哈努克港
南亚	孟买港、加尔各答港、科伦坡港

图1 2007—2019年全球港口集装箱吞吐量增长率

Fig.1 Growth rate of global port container throughput from 2007 to 2019

图2 2008—2019年三次冲击中港口贸易韧性值注：基于自然资源部标准地图网站下载的审图号为GS（2016）1667 号的标准地图制作，底图无修改，以下地图同。

Fig.2 Port trade resilience in three shocks from 2008 to 2019

表2 2008—2019年港口贸易韧性分区域描述统计

Tab.2 Statistical description of port trade resilience in subregions from 2008 to 2019

地区	港口数量/个	最大值	最小值	平均值	标准差
非洲	4	10.83	－4.27	1.51	3.81
中东	3	30.13	－29.46	0.22	10.94
欧洲	15	8.58	－27.75	0.40	4.09
东亚	14	28.38	－16.66	0.65	4.50
东南亚	14	10.94	－8.35	0.96	2.92
南亚	3	6.47	－5.14	0.67	2.79

图3 2008—2019年区域港口贸易韧性值

Fig.3 Regional port trade resilience from 2008 to 2019

图4 2008—2019年沿线港口贸易韧性标准差椭圆

Fig.4 Ellipse of the standard deviation of trade resilience of ports along the Belt and Road from 2008 to 2019

图5 沿线港口抵抗力和恢复力象限分布

Fig.5 Quadrant distribution of resistance and resilience of ports along the line

图6 2008—2019年中国各港口贸易韧性值

Fig.6 Trade resilience of ports in China from 2008 to 2019

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