Abstract:

The Yangtze River Delta is the region with the most active population flow in my country. Floating population's settlement intention determines the process of citizenization and the quality of new urbanization. Based on the data from the 2017 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey and related statistics, this study used the exploratory spatial data analysis, geographically weighted regression model, and systematic cluster analysis to examine the spatial pattern of the floating population's settlement intention and the spatial variation of the factors influencing such intention in ??the Yangtze River Delta. The following results were obtained: (1) The overall settlement intention of the floating population in the Yangtze River Delta is not high, And the proportion of floating population with settlement intention is about 37.91%; Shanghai and Hefei metropolitan areas are the two highlands suitable for settlement intention. (2) The educational level, proportion of the output value of secondary industry in the inflow area, housing price growth rate, and price-to-income ratio in the inflow area have a significant positive effect on the settlement intention of floating population; cross-provincial mobility, rent-to-income ratio, and employee status exert an inhibitory impact on such an intention. The influence degree of each index have obvious spatial heterogeneity. (3) The Yangtze River Delta is divided into four major influencing zones: floating population's settlement intention in the central and northern parts of Anhui are significantly affected by economic factors and flow characteristics; the central and northern parts of Jiangsu are dominated by ??housing factors; in Shanghai and southern Jiangsu, this intention is mainly influenced by multiple factors; finally, Zhejiang and southern Anhui are dominated by the factors of human capital. Finally, according to the heterogeneous characteristics of the factors affecting the floating population's settlement intention in different regions of the Yangtze River Delta, the paper puts forward differentiated suggestions on floating population services and management from the aspects of management system, public services, employment and housing security.

Key words: floating population's settlement intention, spatial differentiation, GWR, the Yangtze River Delta

摘要：

基于2017年流动人口动态监测数据，综合运用探索性空间数据分析、地理加权回归模型及系统聚类分析方法，探索长三角一体化地区流动人口居留意愿的空间分布格局，重点剖析居留意愿影响因素的空间分异特征。研究发现：（1）长三角地区流动人口居留意愿总体水平不高，具有居留意愿的流动人口比例仅约37.91%，上海和合肥都市圈为居留意愿的两大高地；（2）受教育水平、流入地二产产值占比、流入地房价增长率、房价收入比对居留意愿整体产生显著提升作用，跨省流动、房租收入比、雇员身份对居留意愿整体表现为显著抑制作用，各指标的影响程度均具有明显的空间异质性；（3）长三角可划分为流动人口居留意愿的四大影响区，分别为皖中皖北经济及流动特征主导区、苏中苏北住房因素主导区、上海及苏南多因素复杂作用区和浙江及皖南人力资本因素主导区。最后，针对长三角不同地区流动人口居留意愿影响因素的异质性特征，从管理制度、公共服务、就业与住房保障等方面提出差异化的流动人口服务与管理建议。

关键词: 流动人口居留意愿, 空间分异, 地理加权回归, 长三角地区