Abstract:

Promoting the coupling and interaction between rural digitalization and high-quality agricultural development is the only way to realize the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. On the basis of deconstructing the coupling and coordination mechanism of rural digitalization and high-quality agricultural development, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of the coupling and coordination of rural digitalization and high-quality agricultural development in 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021 by using the coupling coordination degree model, Moran index, spatial Markov chain and BP neural network. The results show that: ① The index of rural digitalization and agricultural high-quality development is on the rise, but the overall development level is relatively low, and there is huge room for improvement, showing significant spatial divergence with an "east-high,west-low" pattern. ② The coupling coordination degree of the system is gradually optimized, and the transformation from mild dislocation to basic coordination is realized. ③ On the whole, the coupling coordination degree of the system shows a significant positive spatial correlation and the spatial correlation weakened, and the spatial difference shows an expanding trend. The local spatial structure is stable. The probability of low level upward transfer of system coupling coordination degree increases significantly with the passage of time. ④ Rural digitalization is the fundamental driving force of system coupling and coordination, and the level of economic development, urbanization and government intervention have a more obvious role in promoting the central and western regions.

Key words: rural digitalization, high-quality development of agriculture, coupling coordination, spatio-temporal evolution, BP neural network

摘要：

推动乡村数字化与农业高质量发展的耦合互动，是实现农业农村现代化的必由之路。在解构乡村数字化与农业高质量发展耦合协调机理的基础上，运用耦合协调度模型、莫兰指数、空间Markov链和 BP神经网络等方法，剖析2011—2021年中国30个省域乡村数字化与农业高质量发展耦合协调的时空演化特征及其驱动因素。结果表明：①乡村数字化与农业高质量发展指数虽呈上升态势，但整体发展水平偏低，有较大提升空间，且二者空间分异明显，呈现“东高西低”的分异格局。②系统耦合协调度逐渐优化，实现了由轻度失调向基本协调的转变。③系统耦合协调度整体上呈现出显著的空间正相关性，但空间关联性有所减弱，空间差异呈逐步扩大的变化趋势；局部空间结构保持稳定。系统耦合协调度随时间推移从低水平向上转移的概率显著提高。④乡村数字化是系统耦合协调度优化的根本动力，经济发展水平、城镇化水平与政府干预对中部和西部地区的推动作用更明显。

关键词: 乡村数字化, 农业高质量发展, 耦合协调度, 时空演化, BP神经网络