Abstract: Based on the geopolitical perspective, this thesis analyzes the factors of the "color revolution" that occurred in the former Soviet Union at the beginning of this century, and deems that the United States had a certain degree of subjective selectivity for the "color revolution" in accordance with its geostrategic pattern. Domestic economic, political and social contradictions are also the background of the “color revolution”. Based on the dynamic analysis of the geopolitical pattern of Central Asia and combined with the situation of the five Central Asian countries, the dual dimensions of time and space are used to evaluate the possibility of the future "color revolution" in Central Asia. We draw two conclusions from the analysis: (1) The likelihood of a "color revolution" in Central Asia is relatively low in the short term, but there is possibility in the long run.(2) Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are likely to be stable in the future. Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan should be alert to the outbreak of the "color revolution".

Key words: color revolution, Central Asia, influence factors, possibility

摘要： 基于地缘政治视角，分析本世纪初发生在原苏联地区“颜色革命”的诱发因素，认为美国根据其地缘战略格局对“颜色革命”发生地存在一定程度的主观选择性，国家内部经济、政治、社会等层面的矛盾也同样作为发生背景。在中亚地缘格局动态分析的基础上，结合中亚五国形势，从时间和空间双重维度对中亚地区未来发生“颜色革命”的可能性进行识别与评判，得出1) 整体来看，中亚近期内爆发“颜色革命”可能性较小，但从长远来看不能掉以轻心。2)土、乌未来稳定可期，塔、吉、哈需谨防“颜色革命”卷土重来。

关键词: “颜色革命”, 中亚地区, 影响因素, 可能性