Effects of population and impervious surface changes on water resource consumption in Lancang-Mekong River Basin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.11.2021737

Abstract

Abstract:

The uneven development in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB) makes the changes in population and impervious surface more complex, thus affecting the economic and social targets of river water resource allocation in the trans-boundary basin. This study employed remote sensed images and LandScan database to obtain impervious surface and population data, then constructed decoupling model to explore the decoupling relationship of population and impervious surface in LMRB from 1995 to 2015. Results showed: ①Impervious surface expansion intensity is bigger than population growth intensity in basin and national level. There is a spatial dislocation between the growth intensities of population and impervious surface in provincial level. ②At the basin level, the whole basin is weakly decoupled. At the national level, Thailand changes from weakly decoupled to strongly decoupled, while the other five countries remained weakly decoupled but the gap between population and impervious surface growth decreases. At the provincial level, LMB experiences the process from "weak decoupling" to "weak decoupling and strong decoupling" with the reasonable provinces increasing. ③Population growth and impervious surface expansion accelerates industrial-domestic water consumption of the basin. In China, Lao's and Myanmar parts of the basin, population growth is the leading factor to industrial-domestic water consumption increasing, while impervious surface expansion dominates in Vietnam. In Thailand and Cambodia parts of basin, the effect of the two factors on industrial-domestic water consumption diminish.Basin countries should strengthen cooperation to coordinate the relationship between population and impervious surface, and adjust their water use plans and industrial structures for a better development.

Key words: Lancang-Mekong River Basin, population, impervious surface, decoupling model, spatial scale, water resource

摘要：

澜沧江-湄公河流域国家间发展不平衡，加剧了人口和不透水面变化的复杂性，影响跨境流域水资源分配的经济目标和社会目标。运用遥感影像和LandScan数据库提取流域不透水面和人口数据，通过构建强度差异指数、脱钩指数模型，从多空间尺度探究流域1995—2015年人口和不透水面的变化及脱钩类型，并分析两个要素对流域内工业-生活用水量的影响。结果表明：①流域层面和国家层面不透水面扩张强度高于人口增长强度，省域层面人口和不透水面配置存在空间错位现象。②流域尺度下，人口和不透水面关系始终是弱脱钩型；国家尺度下，泰国部分由弱脱钩变为强脱钩，其余五国一直是弱脱钩型，但人口与不透水面增速差距减小；省级尺度下，各省（市）经历了“弱脱钩”为主到“弱脱钩、强脱钩”为主的变化过程，脱钩合理型的省（市）增加。③人口增长和不透水面扩张加快了流域工业-生活用水消耗，在流域的中国部分、老挝部分、缅甸部分，人口增长是工业-生活用水量增长的主导因素，在越南部分不透水面扩张则是主导因素，在泰国部分和柬埔寨部分，人口和不透水面对用水量的影响强度较弱。流域各国应当加强合作，协调人口与不透水面的规模和增速，调整用水计划和产业结构，促进流域的可持续发展。

关键词: 澜沧江-湄公河流域, 人口, 不透水面, 脱钩模型, 空间尺度, 水资源

Ping HONG, Xuezhong JIANG. Effects of population and impervious surface changes on water resource consumption in Lancang-Mekong River Basin[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(11): 43-56.

洪萍, 蒋雪中. 澜沧江-湄公河流域人口与不透水面变化对水资源消耗的影响分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(11): 43-56.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1 The map of Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Tab. 1 Standard for decoupling relationship between population and impervious surface

脱钩类型	$V p o p %$	$V l a n d %$	$E p l$	状态
强负脱钩	+	－	（－∞，0）	人口增加，不透水面减少；欠合理
弱负脱钩	－	－	（0，0.8）	二者均减少，但不透水面减少更快；合理
扩张负脱钩	+	+	（1.2，+∞）	二者均增长，但人口增长更快；合理
扩张连接	+	+	（0.8，1.2）	二者均增长，增速相近；合理
衰退连接	－	－	（0.8，1.2）	二者均减少，减速相近；合理
强脱钩	－	+	（－∞，0）	人口减少，不透水面增加；欠合理
弱脱钩	+	+	（0，0.8）	二者均增长，不透水面扩张速度较快；欠合理
衰退脱钩	－	－	（1.2，+∞）	二者均减少，不透水面减速相对较快；欠合理

Tab. 1 Standard for decoupling relationship between population and impervious surface

脱钩类型	$V p o p %$	$V l a n d %$	$E p l$	状态
强负脱钩	+	－	（－∞，0）	人口增加，不透水面减少；欠合理
弱负脱钩	－	－	（0，0.8）	二者均减少，但不透水面减少更快；合理
扩张负脱钩	+	+	（1.2，+∞）	二者均增长，但人口增长更快；合理
扩张连接	+	+	（0.8，1.2）	二者均增长，增速相近；合理
衰退连接	－	－	（0.8，1.2）	二者均减少，减速相近；合理
强脱钩	－	+	（－∞，0）	人口减少，不透水面增加；欠合理
弱脱钩	+	+	（0，0.8）	二者均增长，不透水面扩张速度较快；欠合理
衰退脱钩	－	－	（1.2，+∞）	二者均减少，不透水面减速相对较快；欠合理

Tab.2 PGDI and ISEDI of 6 countries in Lancang-Mekong River Basin in different periods

涉及地区	PGDI			ISEDI
涉及地区	1995—2005	2005—2015	1995—2015	1995—2005	2005—2015	1995—2015
中国部分	2.65	1.45	2.13	0.60	1.48	1.04
柬埔寨部分	0.05	4.95	2.27	0.64	0.88	0.70
老挝部分	0.41	3.56	1.85	0.88	1.51	1.29
缅甸部分	0.03	11.74	5.31	3.24	1.65	3.43
泰国部分	1.02	2.87	0.81	0.77	1.18	0.98
越南部分	1.39	3.34	2.33	3.05	0.17	1.00
平均值	0.93	4.65	2.45	1.53	1.14	1.41

Fig.2 The distribution of PGDI and ISEDI in Lancang-Mekong River Basin during 1995-2015

Tab.3 Decoupling of population and impervious surface in Lancang-Mekong River Basin from 1995 to 2015

流域国家	1995—2005年				2005—2015年
流域国家	人口变化率/%	不透水面变化率/%	脱钩系数	脱钩类型	人口变化率/%	不透水面变化率/%	脱钩系数	脱钩类型
中国部分	11.14	59.95	0.185 9	弱脱钩	5.19	232.17	0.022 4	弱脱钩
柬埔寨部分	0.22	63.64	0.003 5	弱脱钩	17.69	139.04	0.127 3	弱脱钩
老挝部分	1.73	87.62	0.019 7	弱脱钩	12.70	237.92	0.053 4	弱脱钩
缅甸部分	0.11	322.94	0.000 3	弱脱钩	41.93	259.71	0.161 5	弱脱钩
泰国部分	4.29	77.26	0.055 6	弱脱钩	－10.26	185.22	－0.055 4	强脱钩
越南部分	5.83	304.84	0.019 1	弱脱钩	11.94	26.53	0.450 1	弱脱钩

Fig.3 The spatial distribution of decoupling relationship between population and impervious surface in Lancang-Mekong River Basin provinces

Fig.4 The distribution of industrial-domestic water consumption in Lancang-Mekong River Basin in 2005 and 2015

Fig. 5 Regression analysis of industrial-domestic water consumption with impervious surfaces and population

Fig.6 The efficiency of the population and impervious surface on industrial-domestic water in 6 countries

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