Spatial differentiation and evolution of the global foreign direct investment

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.10.20240420

Abstract

Abstract:

Foreign direct investment(FDI) plays a crucial role in promoting regional division of labor and cooperation, building global industrial and supply chains, and shaping the global economic landscape. This paper uses kernel density estimation, center of gravity, and exploratory spatial data analysis methods, to explore the temporal changes, hierarchical distribution, spatial and temporal patterns and agglomeration patterns of global FDI from 2009 to 2021. The results show that: ① The scale of global FDI is fluctuating and growing, with obvious hierarchical characteristics and agglomeration effects. The gap in investment scale between countries and regions is increasingly narrowing, and the degree of concentration of foreign investment towards medium scale is gradually deepening. ② Global FDI has formed three major concentration regions in Europe, North America, and East Asia. The overall pattern of global FDI balance shows the interweaving trend of two-way investment between developed economies and investment from developed economies to developing economies, with developed economies being the main regions with FDI deficits. The global FDI pattern has undergone spatial restructuring, with the Mediterranean and its surrounding areas as the distribution center, and the center of FDI has shifted towards the southeast direction over time. ③ The global distribution of OFDI and IFDI exhibit spatial agglomeration characteristics and dependence, with similar agglomeration patterns and dynamic evolution. Western Europe and North America have become high-value clusters and hotspots for IFDI and OFDI, while Africa is the main low-value cluster and cold spot region. A comprehensive understanding of the spatial differentiation of global FDI and its evolution process is of great significance for the in-depth understanding of the development direction of economic globalization in the new era, optimizing and clarifying the strategic layout of China's OFDI, and promoting the sustained development of economic globalization.

Key words: economic globalization, foreign direct investment, investment pattern, exploratory spatial data analysis

摘要：

外商直接投资在推动区域分工协作、构建全球产业链供应链以及塑造全球经济格局中发挥着关键作用。本文运用核密度估计、空间重心测度和探索性空间数据分析等方法，探究2009—2021年全球外商直接投资的规模特征、空间格局及其集聚形态。研究发现：①全球外商直接投资的规模在波动中增长，等级特征和集聚效应明显。国家和地区间投资的规模差距日益缩小，外商直接投资向中等规模集中的程度逐渐加深。②全球外商直接投资形成欧洲、北美和东亚三大投资集中区域，投资差额格局总体呈现出发达经济体间的双向投资与发达经济体向发展中经济体投资的交织态势，投资逆差国（地区）以发达国家（地区）为主。全球外商直接投资格局经历空间重构，其分布重心以地中海及其周边区域为主，且外商直接投资重心随时间向东南方向偏移。③全球OFDI和IFDI分布均呈现空间集聚特征和空间依赖性，两者集聚形态较为相似且均处于动态演化中。西欧和北美为外商直接投资流入和流出的高值集聚区和热点区域，非洲是主要的低值集聚区域和冷点区域。全面认知全球外商直接投资空间分异及其演化规律，对于深入理解新时期经济全球化发展方向、优化中国对外投资战略布局具有重要意义。

关键词: 经济全球化, 外商直接投资, 投资格局, 探索性空间数据分析

Xiquan ZHAO, Wei CHEN. Spatial differentiation and evolution of the global foreign direct investment[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(10): 17-30.

赵晞泉, 陈伟. 全球外商直接投资的空间分异及其演化特征[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(10): 17-30.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1 Temporal evolution of global FDI scales

Fig.2 Kernel density estimations of global FDI scales

Fig.3 Temporal evolution of FDI scales in global regions

Fig.4 Evolution of distribution pattern of global FDI

Fig.5 Evolving patterns of global IFDI and OFDI balance

Fig.6 Evolution of gravity centers of global FDI

Fig.7 LISA clusters of global FDI scales

Fig.8 Cold and hot spots patterns of Global FDI Stocks

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