Analysis of the spatio-temporal pattern changes and influencing factors of the migrants' settlement intention in resource-based cities in China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.11.20240192

Abstract

Abstract:

The settlement intention of the floating population is an important demographic geography issue influencing the transformation and development of resource-based cities in China. Based on the dynamic monitoring survey data of migrant populations from 2012 to 2018, this study employs a binary logistic regression model to systematically analyze the temporal and spatial evolution patterns of the floating population's settlement intention and its influencing factors in 126 resource-based cities. The research results show that: ① In terms of temporal evolution, from 2012 to 2018, the settlement intention of the floating population in resource-based cities shows a fluctuating upward trend. with significant differences between types, exhibiting a hierarchical pattern of "recession type cities>mature type cities>regenerative type cities>growth type cities", with the most significant increases in settlement intention observed in growing and regenerating cities; ② Regarding spatial patterns, the settlement intention of the floating population's in resource-based cities evolved from an initially "fragmented and dispersed" distribution to a "higher in the north and lower in the south" gradient pattern, with the spatial differentiation continuing to expand; ③ The analysis of influencing factors indicates that both individual characteristics of migrant populations and urban characteristics shape settlement decisions, with noticeable type-specific heterogeneity. Individual factors have a universal impact on all types of cities, while the impact strength of urban characteristics varies depending on the stage of urban development. Among individual factors, married, healthy filing, high education level, high family income level, long floating time, and the floating population in the province have a high settlement intention. In terms of urban characteristics, the per capita GDP is high, the urban rent is low, and the number of hospitals is large, so the floating population has a higher settlement intention.

Key words: floating population, settlement intention, resource-based cities, spatio-temporal difference, China

摘要：

流动人口居留意愿是影响中国资源型城市转型发展的重要人口地理学议题。本研究基于2012—2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据，利用二元Logistic回归模型，系统分析126个资源型城市流动人口居留意愿的时空演变规律及其影响因素。研究发现：①时序演变上，2012―2018年资源型城市流动人口居留意愿呈波动上升趋势，但不同城市类型存在显著差异，表现为“衰退型>成熟型>再生型>成长型”的层级特征，其中，成长型和再生型城市居留意愿增幅最为显著；②空间格局上，资源型城市流动人口居留意愿由初期“破碎离散”分布逐渐演化为“北高南低”的梯度格局，且空间分异特征持续扩大；③影响因素分析表明，流动人口个人特征和城市特征共同塑造流动人口居留决策，但存在明显的类型异质性，个人因素对所有类型城市均具有普适性影响，而城市特征的影响强度则因城市发展阶段不同而具有差异性。在个人因素中，已婚、健康建档、受教育程度高、家庭收入水平高、流动时间长，以及省内流动的流动人口居留意愿高，在城市特征上，人均GDP高、城市房租低和医院数量越多，流动人口居留意愿越高。

关键词: 流动人口, 居留意愿, 资源型城市, 时空变化, 中国

Yanru CHEN, Xiaoman LIU, Xiaolong LUO, Zongni GU. Analysis of the spatio-temporal pattern changes and influencing factors of the migrants' settlement intention in resource-based cities in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(11): 86-97.

陈艳如, 刘晓曼, 罗小龙, 顾宗倪. 中国资源型城市流动人口居留意愿时空格局变化及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(11): 86-97.

Figures/Tables 6

Fig.1 Classification and distribution map of resource-based cities in China

Tab.1 Sample size of floating population

年份	126个资源型城市	成长型	成熟型	衰退型	再生型
2012	25 938	6 661	13 133	2 913	3 231
2014	35 988	8 279	19 191	4 399	4 119
2015	38 558	9 280	20 318	4 120	4 840
2016	28 440	7 560	14 720	3 040	3 200
2018	19 681	4 802	10 477	1 931	2 471

Fig.2 Change of migrants’ settlement intention in resource-based cities in China from 2012 to 2018

Fig.3 Spatial patterns of resource-based cities migrant’s settlement intention in China during 2012-2018

Tab. 2 Regression results of factors affecting the migrant willingness

解释变量		126个城市		成长型		成熟型		衰退型		再生型
解释变量		系数B	EXP(B)	系数B	EXP(B)	系数B	EXP(B)	系数B	EXP(B)	系数B	EXP(B)
基本属性	性别（男）	－0.010	1.010	－0.087	0.917	0.012	1.012	0.084	1.088	0.063	1.065
	流动时长	0.062^***	1.064	0.079^***	1.083	0.056^***	1.058	0.055^***	1.056	0.062^***	1.064
	流动范围（跨省）	0.723^***	2.062	0.724^***	2.063	0.811^***	2.249	0.546^***	1.727	0.478^***	1.613
	婚姻状况（未婚）	0.657^***	1.928	0.502^***	1.652	0.727^***	2.069	0.548^***	1.730	0.652^***	1.920
	是否健康建档（否）	0.356^***	1.428	0.333^***	1.395	0.323^***	1.381	0.565^***	1.760	0.262^*	1.299
受教育程度（未上过学）	小学/初中	－0.153	0.858	－0.190	0.827	－0.286	0.751	0.243	1.275	－0.094	0.911
	高中/中专	0.157^**	1.171	0.147	1.158	－0.019	0.981	0.623^*	1.865	0.324	1.383
	大学本科/专科	0.614^***	1.849	0.485^*	1.625	0.444^*	1.559	0.811^**	2.250	0.700	2.014
	研究生	1.140^**	3.127	20.354	691 170 054	0.241	1.273	19.693	356 973 604	2.373^*	10.729
家庭月收入（X<0.5万）	[0.5万，0.75万)	－0.160^***	1.174	0.296^***	1.345	0.075	1.077	0.080	1.084	0.292^*	1.339
	[0.75万,1万)	0.406^***	1.500	0.480^***	1.617	0.325^***	1.384	0.335	1.397	0.750^***	2.116
	[1万,2万)	0.485^***	1.623	0.345^*	1.412	0.524^***	1.688	0.499^**	1.647	0.643^***	1.902
	[2万, $∞$ )	0.980^***	2.663	1.430^**	4.177	1.205^***	3.337	0.417	1.517	0.145	1.156
城市区位（西部）	东部	－0.004	0.996	—	—	－0.133	0.875	－0.125	0.882	－0.362	0.696
	中部	0.112	1.118	—	—	0.284^**	1.328	－0.379	0.6841	0.976	2.654
	东北	0.365^***	1.441	1.146^***	3.146	－0.373^***	1.452	－0.477	0.620	－0.055	0.947
人均GDP对数		0.235^***	1.265	0.458	1.581	0.237^***	1.267	－0.008	0.992	0.578^**	1.782
城市房租		－0.022^**	0.979	0.231	1.260	－0.040^***	0.961	0.070	1.073	-0.167^***	0.846
医院数量		0.002^***	1.002	0.005	1.005	0.003^***	1.003	－0.003	0.997	0.003	1.003
客运量对数		－0.067^**	0.935	－0.058	0.944	－0.048	0.953	－0.343^*	0.710	－0.151	0.860
工业SO₂排放量/GDP		0.001	1.001	0.000	1.000	－0.001	0.999	－0.005	0.995	－0.094^*	0.913
工业烟(粉)尘排放量/GDP		0.003	1.003	0.048^***	1.049	0.008^*	1.008	0.007	1.007	—0.004	1.004
常量		－3.460		－10.142		－3.436		1.017		－3.383
－2 log likelihood		17 031.503^a		3 721.264^a		8 368.317^a		2 203.176^a		2 485.845^a
Nagelkerke R²		0.135		0.155		0.160		0.113		0.150

Tab. 2 Regression results of factors affecting the migrant willingness

解释变量		126个城市		成长型		成熟型		衰退型		再生型
解释变量		系数B	EXP(B)	系数B	EXP(B)	系数B	EXP(B)	系数B	EXP(B)	系数B	EXP(B)
基本属性	性别（男）	－0.010	1.010	－0.087	0.917	0.012	1.012	0.084	1.088	0.063	1.065
	流动时长	0.062^***	1.064	0.079^***	1.083	0.056^***	1.058	0.055^***	1.056	0.062^***	1.064
	流动范围（跨省）	0.723^***	2.062	0.724^***	2.063	0.811^***	2.249	0.546^***	1.727	0.478^***	1.613
	婚姻状况（未婚）	0.657^***	1.928	0.502^***	1.652	0.727^***	2.069	0.548^***	1.730	0.652^***	1.920
	是否健康建档（否）	0.356^***	1.428	0.333^***	1.395	0.323^***	1.381	0.565^***	1.760	0.262^*	1.299
受教育程度（未上过学）	小学/初中	－0.153	0.858	－0.190	0.827	－0.286	0.751	0.243	1.275	－0.094	0.911
	高中/中专	0.157^**	1.171	0.147	1.158	－0.019	0.981	0.623^*	1.865	0.324	1.383
	大学本科/专科	0.614^***	1.849	0.485^*	1.625	0.444^*	1.559	0.811^**	2.250	0.700	2.014
	研究生	1.140^**	3.127	20.354	691 170 054	0.241	1.273	19.693	356 973 604	2.373^*	10.729
家庭月收入（X<0.5万）	[0.5万，0.75万)	－0.160^***	1.174	0.296^***	1.345	0.075	1.077	0.080	1.084	0.292^*	1.339
	[0.75万,1万)	0.406^***	1.500	0.480^***	1.617	0.325^***	1.384	0.335	1.397	0.750^***	2.116
	[1万,2万)	0.485^***	1.623	0.345^*	1.412	0.524^***	1.688	0.499^**	1.647	0.643^***	1.902
	[2万, $∞$ )	0.980^***	2.663	1.430^**	4.177	1.205^***	3.337	0.417	1.517	0.145	1.156
城市区位（西部）	东部	－0.004	0.996	—	—	－0.133	0.875	－0.125	0.882	－0.362	0.696
	中部	0.112	1.118	—	—	0.284^**	1.328	－0.379	0.6841	0.976	2.654
	东北	0.365^***	1.441	1.146^***	3.146	－0.373^***	1.452	－0.477	0.620	－0.055	0.947
人均GDP对数		0.235^***	1.265	0.458	1.581	0.237^***	1.267	－0.008	0.992	0.578^**	1.782
城市房租		－0.022^**	0.979	0.231	1.260	－0.040^***	0.961	0.070	1.073	-0.167^***	0.846
医院数量		0.002^***	1.002	0.005	1.005	0.003^***	1.003	－0.003	0.997	0.003	1.003
客运量对数		－0.067^**	0.935	－0.058	0.944	－0.048	0.953	－0.343^*	0.710	－0.151	0.860
工业SO₂排放量/GDP		0.001	1.001	0.000	1.000	－0.001	0.999	－0.005	0.995	－0.094^*	0.913
工业烟(粉)尘排放量/GDP		0.003	1.003	0.048^***	1.049	0.008^*	1.008	0.007	1.007	—0.004	1.004
常量		－3.460		－10.142		－3.436		1.017		－3.383
－2 log likelihood		17 031.503^a		3 721.264^a		8 368.317^a		2 203.176^a		2 485.845^a
Nagelkerke R²		0.135		0.155		0.160		0.113		0.150

Fig.4 Coordination of the "push-pull" force matching relationship for resource-based cities of different development types

References 40

[1]	朱宇, 林李月. 流动人口在城镇的居留意愿及其决定因素——文献综述及其启示. 人口与经济, 2019(2): 17-27.
	ZHU Y, LIN L. The settlement intention of the floating population in the cities and its determinants: A literature review and its implications. Population & Economics, 2019(2): 17-27.
[2]	杨晓军. 中国城市流动人口规模的区域差异与收敛性. 人口与发展, 2021, 27(4): 2-13.
	YANG X. The regional difference and convergence of urban floating population size in China. Population and Development, 2021, 27(4): 2-13.
[3]	古恒宇, 肖凡, 沈体雁, 等. 中国城市流动人口居留意愿的地区差异与影响因素——基于2015年流动人口动态监测数据. 经济地理, 2018, 38(11): 22-29.
	GU H, XIAO F, SHEN T, et al. Spatial difference and influencing factors of settlement intention of urban floating population in China:Evidence from the 2015 National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey. Economic Geography, 2018, 38(11): 22-29.
[4]	朱宇, 林李月. 中国人口迁移流动的时间过程及其空间效应研究:回顾与展望. 地理科学, 2016, 36(6): 820-828.
	ZHU Y, LIN L. Studies on the temporal processes of migration and their spatial effects in China: Progress and prospect. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(6): 820-828.
[5]	GU H, LIU Z, SHEN T. Spatial pattern and determinants of migrant workers' interprovincial hukou transfer intention in China: Evidence from a national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey in 2016. Population, Space and Place, 2019, 26(2): E2250-E2250.
[6]	吴康, 张文忠, 张平宇, 等. 中国资源型城市的高质量发展:困境与突破. 自然资源学报, 2023, 38(1): 1-21.
	WU K, ZHANG W, ZHANG P, et al. High-quality development of resource-based cities in China: Dilemmas and breakthroughs. Journal of Natural Resources, 2023, 38(1): 1-21.
[7]	湛东升, 吴倩倩, 余建辉, 等. 中国资源型城市房价时空变化与影响因素分析. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(12): 2888-2900.
	ZHAN D, WU Q, YU J, et al. Spatiotemporal change and influencing factors of resource-based cities' housing prices in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(12): 2888-2900.
[8]	SONG Y, YEUNG, G, ZHU, D, et al. Efficiency of urban land use in China's resource-based cities, 2000-2018. Land Use Policy, 2022, 115: 106009.
[9]	NELLE A, GROßMANN K, HAASE D, et al. Urban shrinkage in Germany: An entangled web of conditions, debates and policies. Cities, 2017, 69: 116-123.
[10]	JOO Y, SEO B. Dual policy to fight urban shrinkage: Daegu, South Korea. Cities, 2018, 73: 128-137.
[11]	付占辉, 梅林, 刘艳军, 等.东北三省城乡收入差距空间格局及其分异机制研究. 地理科学, 2019, 39(9): 1473-1483.
	FU Z, MEI L, LIU Y, et al. Spatial pattern of urban-rural income disparity and its differentiation mechanism in 3 provinces of northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019, 39(9): 1473-1483.
[12]	张耀军, 陈虹, 张正峰. 资源型城市人口生存与发展问题分析及对策选择. 人口学刊, 2007(4): 9-14.
	ZHANG Y, CHEN H, ZHANG Z. The survival and development of population in resource-based cities. Population Journal, 2007(4): 9-14.
[13]	古恒宇, 李琦婷, 沈体雁. 东北三省流动人口居留意愿的空间差异及影响因素. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 261-269.
	GU H, LI Q, SHEN T. Spatial difference and influencing factors of floating population's settlement intention in the three provinces of northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020, 40(2): 261-269.
[14]	毛蒋兴, 何邕健. 资源型城市生命周期模型研究. 地理与地理信息科学, 2008, 24(1): 56-60.
	MAO J, HE Y. Study on the lifecycle model of resource-intensive cities. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2008, 24(1): 56-60.
[15]	吴康, 刘骁啸, 姚常成. 产业转型对中国资源型城市增长与收缩演变轨迹的影响机制. 自然资源学报, 2023, 38(1): 109-125.
	WU K, LIU X, YAO C.The mechanisms of industrial transformation on the evolutionary trajectory of growth and shrinkage in Chinese resource-based cities. Journal of Natural Resources, 38(1): 109-125.
[16]	ZHOU J, ZHANG Z, XU X, et al. Does the transformation of resourse-dependent cities promote the realization of the Carbon-Peaking goal? An analysis based on typical resource dependent city clusters in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 365: 132731.
[17]	昌敦虎, 李明奎, 原佳倩, 等. 中国资源型城市可持续发展转型对促进就业和环境治理的影响——基于"人与自然和谐共生"视角的分析. 人口研究, 2023, 47(3): 63-77.
	CHANG D, LI M, YUAN J, et al. The employment promotion and environment improvement through sustainable transformation in China's resource-based cities: The perspective of harmonious co-existence between humanity and nature. Population Research, 2023, 47(3): 63-77.
[18]	肖小东, 刘耀彬, 李汝姿. 中国资源型城市经济高质量发展水平识别与转换规律——以30个煤炭城市为例. 自然资源学报, 2023, 39(03): 563-575.
	XIAO X, LIU Y, LI R. The identification of high-quality economic development level of coal resource-based cities and its transformation in China: A case study of 30 coal cities. Journal of Natural Resources, 2023, 39(03): 563-575.
[19]	穆学英, 崔璨, 崔军茹, 等. 中国流动人口的跨等级流动及其对流入城市住房选择的影响. 地理学报, 2022, 77(2): 395-410.
	MU X, CUI C, CUI J, et al. Hierarchical migration patterns of China's floating population and their impact on the housing choices. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(2): 395-410.
[20]	李亭亭, 朱宇, 林李月, 等. 流动人口居留时长意愿的空间分异及影响因素. 地理学报, 2021, 76(12): 2978-2992.
	LI T, ZHU Y, LIN L, et al. The intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence: Spatial variation and determinants. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(12): 2978-2992.
[21]	王珩, 龚岳. 中国流动人才居留意愿和时长的空间分布及影响因素. 地理科学, 2023, 43(1): 61-71.
	WANG H, GONG Y. Spatial distribution and influencing factors of migrant talents' settlement intention and settlement duration in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2023, 43(1): 61-71.
[22]	GU H, JIE Y, LI Z, et al. What drives migrants to settle in chinese cities: A panel data analysis. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 2021(14): 297-314.
[23]	LIN L, ZHU Y. Types and determinants of migrants' settlement intention in China's new phase of urbanization: A multi-dimensional perspective. Cities, 2022(124): 1-11.
[24]	陈艳如, 谷跃, 宋伟轩, 等. 长三角流动人口居留意愿差异及其影响因素. 经济地理, 2022, 42(9): 59-67.
	CHEN Y, GU Y, SONG W, et al. Spatio-temporal differences and influencing factors of floating population's settlement intention in the Yangtze River Delta. Economic Geography, 2022, 42(9): 59-67.
[25]	埃弗雷特·李, 廖莉琼, 温应乾. 人口迁移理论. 南方人口, 1987(2): 34-38.
	LEE E, LIAO L, WEN Y. Population migration theory. South China Population, 1987(2): 34-38.
[26]	曹琳剑, 王杰, 王欢欢, 等. 京津冀基础设施建设与人口集聚耦合演进分析——基于推拉理论解析. 地理科学, 2019, 39(8): 1256-1264.
	CAO L, WANG J, WANG H, et al. Evolutional analysis of coupling between infrastructure and population agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: An analysis based on Push-pull theory. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019, 39(8): 1256-1264.
[27]	李强. 影响中国城乡流动人口的推力与拉力因素分析. 中国社会科学, 2003(1): 125-136.
	LI Q. An analysis of push and pull factors in the migration of rural workers in China. Social Sciences in China, 2003(1): 125-136.
[28]	王良健, 陈坤秋, 王奔. 流动人口城市定居意愿及其影响因素研究:基于湖南省流动人口动态监测数据. 调研世界, 2016(7): 21-26.
	WANG L, CHEN K, WANG B. Study on floating population's settlement intention in cities and its influencing factors: Based on the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in Hunan Province. The World of Survey and Research, 2016(7): 21-26.
[29]	李竞博, 高瑗, 原新. 积分落户时代超大城市流动人口的永久迁移意愿. 人口与经济, 2018(1): 17-27.
	LI J, GAO Y, YUAN X. The permanent migration willingness study of the floating population in megacity in the era of points system for household registration. Population & Economics, 2018(1): 17-27.
[30]	于潇, 徐英东. 流入城市对流动人口居留意愿的影响——基于家庭生命周期理论的分解. 人口研究, 2021, 45(1): 50-67.
	YU X, XU Y. Impact of destination city on settlement intention of floating population: Based on the family life cycle theory. Population Research, 2021, 45(1): 50-67.
[31]	孙林, 田明. 流动人口核心家庭的迁移模式分析——基于家庭生命周期的视角. 人文地理, 2020 (5): 18-24.
	SUN L, TIAN M. Study on migration mode in nuclear family of migrants: Based on the perspective of family life cycle theory. Human Geography, 2020 (5): 18-24.
[32]	蔡少燕. 中国人口家庭式迁移研究的知识图谱分析. 世界地理研究, 2021, 31(3): 649-661.
	CAI S. Knowledge map analysis on the study of Chinese family migration. World Regional Studies, 2021, 31(3): 649-661.
[33]	林李月, 朱宇, 柯文前, 等. 基本公共服务对不同规模城市流动人口居留意愿的影响效应. 地理学报, 2019, 74(4): 737-752.
	LIN L, ZHU Y, KE W, et al. The impact of migrants' access to urban public services on their urban settlement intentions: A study from the perspective of different-sized cities. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(4): 737-752.
[34]	刘乒慧, 李薇, 马慧强. 教育公共服务对城市流动人口居留意愿的影响效应——以太原市为例. 经济问题, 2022(4): 116-123.
	LIU B, LI W, MA H. The effect of educational public service on the residence willingness of urban floating population: Take Taiyuan city as an example. On Economic Problems, 2022(4): 116-123.
[35]	刘彩霞. 城市更新如何影响流动人口的居留意愿:以棚改为例. 劳动经济研究, 2020, 8(3): 120-144.
	LIU C. How does urban renewal affect willingness to study for migrants: Evidence from shantytown redevelopment in China. Studies in Labor Economics, 2020, 8(03): 120-144.
[36]	李辉, 王良健. 房价、房价收入比与流动人口长期居留意愿——来自流动人口的微观证据. 经济地理, 2019, 39(6): 86-96.
	LI H, WANG L. Housing price, price-income ratio and long-term residence intention of the floating population: Evidence from the floating population in China. Economic Geography, 2019, 39(6): 86-96.
[37]	ZHAO Z, LAO X, GU H. How does air pollution affect urban settlement of the floating population in China? New evidence from a push-pull migration analysis. BMC Public Health, 2021(21): 1696.
[38]	余建辉, 李佳洺, 张文忠. 中国资源型城市识别与综合类型划分. 地理学报, 2018, 73(4): 677-687.
	YU J, LI J, ZHANG W. Identification and classification of resource-based cities in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(4): 677-687.
[39]	林李月, 朱宇, 林坤, 等. 两栖生计下中国流动人口城镇购房意愿的空间特征和影响因素. 地理学报, 2021, 76(6): 1350-1365.
	LIN L, ZHU Y, LIN K, et al. Spatial pattern and determinants of migrants' urban housing purchase intention under the binary-locational household arrangements. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(6): 1350-1365.
[40]	GUO G, ZHAO H. Multilevel modeling for binary data. Annual Review of Sociology, 2000, 26: 441-462.