Abstract:

Geo-setting provides sufficient theoretical support for understanding the evolution of the situation of a country or region, and its risk research has the advantages of cross-integration. Accurately identifying and scientifically preventing geo-setting risks is of great significance to safeguarding China's overseas interests. By clarifying the relationship between geo-setting and risk, the concept of geo-setting risk was proposed. An assessment model of geo-setting risks was established based on geo-potential and the theories and methods of geo-setting. Taking Southeast Asia and South Asia as examples, this paper conducted spatial identification of geo-setting risks faced by China in this region and explored their spatio-temporal differentiation rules. The results show that: ① The geo-setting risks faced by Laos, Nepal, Maldives, Brunei, Pakistan and Myanmar are mainly affected by the country's vulnerability; in Singapore and India, they are mainly affected by risk resilience and geopolitical potential ratio; in Vietnam, they are affected by the above three factors; and in the other nine countries, they are mainly affected by geopolitical potential ratio and risk resilience. ② China's geo-setting risks in Southeast Asia and South Asia show a fluctuating downward trend, showing a trend of low in Southeast Asian countries, high in South Asian countries, and lower in the Indochina Peninsula than in neighboring countries in the South China Sea. ③ The geo-setting risks in Laos, Nepal, Brunei, Maldives, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore are low risks. Afghanistan, the Philippines and India, where the game between major powers is more intense, are high risks. Pakistan and Myanmar, where the internal situation is relatively chaotic, are medium-high risks. The other five countries are medium risks. In the future, it is necessary to enhance national competitiveness at the domestic level, optimize the ability of risk research and judgment, strengthen inter-governmental communication at the international level and pay attention to the geographical environment of the host country, so as to serve the maintenance of China's overseas interests.

Key words: China, geo-setting, risk, Southeast Asia, South Asia

摘要：

准确识别并科学防范地缘环境风险，对维护中国的海外利益具有重要意义。在厘清地缘环境风险概念的基础上，结合地缘位势和地缘环境的理论与方法建立地缘环境风险评估模型，对中国在东南亚、南亚面临的地缘环境风险进行评估并探究其时空分异规律。结果表明：①中国在老挝、尼泊尔、马尔代夫、文莱、巴基斯坦、缅甸等六国的地缘环境风险主要受这些国家脆弱性的影响，在新加坡、印度的地缘环境风险受风险韧性和地缘位势比的影响，在越南受脆弱性、风险韧性和地缘位势比的影响，在剩余九国风险主要受到地缘位势比和脆弱性的影响。②中国在东南亚、南亚的地缘环境风险波动下降，呈现出东南亚国家偏低、南亚国家偏高，以及中南半岛低于南海周边国家的态势。③中国在老挝、尼泊尔、文莱、马尔代夫、不丹、斯里兰卡、马来西亚和新加坡八国的地缘环境风险为低风险，在阿富汗、菲律宾、印度为高风险，在巴基斯坦和缅甸为中高风险，在其他五国为中风险。未来应重视东道国的地缘环境，提升国家竞争力，优化风险研判能力，在国际层面加强政府间沟通，维护中国的海外利益。

关键词: 中国, 地缘环境, 风险, 东南亚, 南亚