Temporal-spatial pattern of regional population expansion in Africa in 1990-2015

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.04.2020116

Abstract

Abstract:

Basing on the spatial population data during 1996-2015, we applied both the single indicators, including total population and labor, and the integrated indicator including not only total population and labor but also natality, mortality, youth and aging, to analyze the changes of population expansion units in number and spatial distribution, and compared the differences in the measurement indicators. The research showed that:1)The total population expansion areas have a large proportion, however, the degree of expansion is dropping off; The distribution of total population expansion areas in Africa shows that the North and the South are weaker than the middle part; There are the significant reduction in East Africa.2)In comparison with The total population expansion areas, the labor expansion areas are more obvious, which are totally different in North Africa and South Africa;3)The areas ,in which labor growth rate higher than total population growth rate, have a large proportion than that is not. The former have a sharp distinctness in North-West Africa and Guinea Bay Coast; The latter are distributed in Central, East and West Africa;4)The integrated indicator was more effective in evaluating the comprehensive status of population development. Severe expansion areas have higher proportion, and Moderate expansion areas expand rapidly. Mild expansion areas shrink volatility during 1996-2015.5) The results based the integrated indicator are similar partly to that of the single indicators. The integrated indicator has some advantages in comprehensiveness and foresight.

Key words: population expansion, regional population change, labor change, Africa

摘要：

采用总人口和劳动力等直接指标单独测度，结合出生率、死亡率、少年系数和老年系数等指标进行综合测度，分析1996—2015年非洲51个国家（地区）人口扩张区的数量变化、空间分布及演化特征，并对比了不同测度指标和方法之间的差异。发现：①总人口扩张区的比重虽高，但扩张程度有所放缓，地域分布整体呈现“南北弱、中部强”的特征，其在东非地区缩减明显；②劳动力扩张区较总人口扩张区扩张程度更为明显，两者在北非和南非部分地区差异较大，其地域分布整体呈现“北退南进”的变化过程；③“劳动力增长率大于总人口增长率”地区比重高于“总人口增长率大于劳动力增长率”，且差距有不断拉大的趋势，前者以北非地区西北部、西非地区几内亚湾沿岸较为集中，后者主要集中分布在中非、东非与西非部分地区；④基于综合指标结果显示，重度扩张型占有较高的比重，中度扩张型增速较快，轻度扩张型占比呈波动下降；⑤综合指标与单一指标结果有一定的趋同性，但区别也比较明显，综合指标在综合性、前瞻性方面有一定优势。

关键词: 人口扩张, 人口变化, 劳动力变化, 非洲

Daliang JIANG, Hang REN, Binglin LIU, Shengnan JIANG, Zhenke ZHANG. Temporal-spatial pattern of regional population expansion in Africa in 1990-2015[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(4): 851-863.

蒋大亮, 任航, 刘柄麟, 蒋生楠, 张振克. 1996—2015年非洲人口扩张区域类型划分与区域演变分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(4): 851-863.

Figures/Tables 10

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参数	1996—2000年	2001—2005年	2006—2010年	2011—2015年	权重平均值
总人口变化率	0.156	0.079	0.076	0.097	0.102
劳动力变化率	0.133	0.100	0.085	0.077	0.099
出生率变化	0.076	0.092	0.153	0.101	0.106
死亡率变化	0.126	0.097	0.148	0.156	0.132
出生率期末值	0.107	0.113	0.096	0.098	0.103
死亡率期末值	0.099	0.140	0.137	0.140	0.129
老年系数变化	0.075	0.115	0.064	0.054	0.077
少年系数变化	0.080	0.089	0.066	0.116	0.088
老年系数期末值	0.075	0.078	0.080	0.067	0.075
少年系数期末值	0.072	0.095	0.096	0.095	0.090

参数	1996—2000年	2001—2005年	2006—2010年	2011—2015年	权重平均值
总人口变化率	0.156	0.079	0.076	0.097	0.102
劳动力变化率	0.133	0.100	0.085	0.077	0.099
出生率变化	0.076	0.092	0.153	0.101	0.106
死亡率变化	0.126	0.097	0.148	0.156	0.132
出生率期末值	0.107	0.113	0.096	0.098	0.103
死亡率期末值	0.099	0.140	0.137	0.140	0.129
老年系数变化	0.075	0.115	0.064	0.054	0.077
少年系数变化	0.080	0.089	0.066	0.116	0.088
老年系数期末值	0.075	0.078	0.080	0.067	0.075
少年系数期末值	0.072	0.095	0.096	0.095	0.090

人口增长率	1996—2000年		2001—2005年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年
人口增长率	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比
0-5%	3	5.88%	4	7.84%	6	11.76%	2	3.92%
5%-10%	17	33.33%	17	33.33%	13	25.49%	19	37.25%
10%-15%	25	49.02%	24	47.06%	28	54.90%	28	54.90%
>15%	6	11.76%	5	9.80%	3	5.88%	1	1.96%
小计	51	100.00%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%

人口增长率	1996—2000年		2001—2005年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年
人口增长率	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比
0-5%	3	5.88%	4	7.84%	6	11.76%	2	3.92%
5%-10%	17	33.33%	17	33.33%	13	25.49%	19	37.25%
10%-15%	25	49.02%	24	47.06%	28	54.90%	28	54.90%
>15%	6	11.76%	5	9.80%	3	5.88%	1	1.96%
小计	51	100.00%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%

劳动力增长率	1996—2000年		2001—2005年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年
劳动力增长率	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	频数
0 ~ 5%	3	5.88%	4	7.84%	5	9.80%	0	0.00%
5% ~ 10%	9	17.65%	11	21.57%	9	17.65%	10	19.61%
10% ~ 15%	31	60.78%	22	43.14%	26	50.98%	35	68.63%
>15	8	15.69%	13	25.49%	10	19.61%	5	9.80%
小计	51	100.00%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%