Abstract:

Using the trade intensity index, the HM index and the Geodetector to analyze the evolution and influencing factors of the trade pattern between China and the Caribbean countries from 2008 to 2019. The research finds:① The total import and export trade between China and the Caribbean countries has grown rapidly, showing a trend of volatility; ② There are significant spatial differences in trade cooperation between China and Caribbean countries, which are mainly concentrated in large countries such as Mexico and Colombia;③ The trade ties between China and Caribbean countries are relatively low, but the trade relations are developing in a closer direction; ④ China mainly imports primary products such as mineral products in the Caribbean countries, and exports technology-intensive and labor-intensive products such as machinery and equipment, textiles and clothing; ⑤ The dependence of Caribbean countries' commodity exports on the Chinese market is significantly higher than the dependence of China's commodity exports on Caribbean countries, showing an asymmetrical Structure; ⑥ Economy development, resources endowment, infrastructure conditions and technological innovation levels have become important factors affecting China and Caribbean countries trade. The explanatory power of dual-factor interactive detection is higher than single-factor detection, including two types of "non-linear enhancement" and "two-factor enhancement", and "Two-factor enhancement" dominates.

Key words: trade intensity index, HM index, geographic detector, trade pattern, Caribbean countries

摘要：

运用贸易强度指数、HM指数和地理探测器分析了2008—2019年中国与加勒比国家的贸易格局演变及影响因素，研究发现：①中国与加勒比国家进出口贸易总额增长迅速，呈波动上升的趋势；②中国与加勒比国家贸易合作存在明显的空间差异，主要集中于墨西哥和哥伦比亚等大国；③中国与加勒比国家的贸易联系强度较低，但贸易关系正向紧密方向发展；④中国在加勒比国家主要进口矿产品等初级产品，出口机械设备、纺织服装等技术密集型和劳动密集型产品；⑤加勒比国家商品出口对中国市场的依赖程度显著高于中国商品出口对加勒比国家的依赖程度，呈现出非对称性结构；⑥经济发展、资源禀赋、基础设施条件和技术创新水平成为影响中国与加勒比国家贸易的重要因素，双因子交互探测解释力高于单因子探测，包括“非线性增强”和“双因子增强”两种类型，其中“双因子增强”占主导。

关键词: 贸易强度指数, HM指数, 地理探测器, 贸易格局, 加勒比国家