Abstract:

This paper adopts the expansion intensity index, equal sector method, spatial autocorrelation, PCA-STIRPAT model, and geographic detectors to quantitatively reveal the characteristics and spatial-temporal driving factors of the construction land growth pattern in the CZT metropolitan area from 1990 to 2018. The results show that: (1) The construction land of CZT metropolitan area expanded slowly from 1990 to 2000, expanded rapidly from 2000 to 2010, and expanded slowly from 2010 to 2018. In the three stages, the main expansion directions of the construction land in the CZT metropolitan area are different. The direction of expansion of the Changsha metropolitan area changed from northeast to southwest, the expansion direction of Zhuzhou metropolitan area changed from southwest to west, and the expansion direction of Xiangtan metropolitan area changed from south to north. It can be seen that under the influence of the integrated construction of the CZT urban agglomeration, the expansion direction of the three cities tends to move closer to the central intersection. (2) From 1990 to 2018, the expansion of construction land in the CZT metropolitan area showed an overall trend of agglomeration. Wangcheng District and Changsha County of Changsha City were hot spots for construction land growth, while Lukou District of Zhuzhou City and Xiangtan County of Xiangtan City were extremely cold spots for construction land growth. (3) The dominant time driving factors for the expansion of construction land are local fiscal expenditure, fixed asset investment, highway passenger traffic, total population, number of employees, and number of patent authorizations. In a comprehensive view, socio-economic investment, population growth and technological progress are important driving forces for the expansion of construction land. Population and GDP are the dominant spatial driving factors for the expansion of built space.

Key words: construction land, growth pattern, driving factors, CZT metropolitan area, PCA-STIRPAT model, geographic detector

摘要：

采取扩张强度指数、等扇形法、空间自相关、PCA-STIRPAT模型 、地理探测器等方法，定量揭示1990—2018年长株潭都市圈建设用地增长格局特征及时空驱动因子。结果表明：（1）长株潭都市圈建设用地1990—1999年间扩张缓慢，2000—2009年迅速扩张，2010—2018年缓速扩张。这三个阶段长株潭都市圈建设用地主要扩张方向不同，长沙都市区为东北-正东-西南，株洲都市区为西南-西南-正西，湘潭都市区为正南-东南-正北，可见受长株潭城市群一体化建设的影响，三市的扩张方向有向中心交汇地靠拢的趋势。（2）1990—2018年长株潭都市圈建设用地扩张整体呈集聚态势，长沙市望城区和长沙县是建设用地增长的热点区，株洲市渌口区与湘潭市湘潭县是建设用地增长的极冷点区。（3）建设用地扩张的时间演化驱动因子是地方财政支出、固定资产投资、公路客运量、总人口、职工数量和专利授权数。综合来看，社会经济投资、人口增长和科技进步是驱动建设用地扩张的重要动力，人口和GDP是建成空间扩张的主导空间驱动因子。

关键词: 建设用地, 增长格局, 驱动因子, 长株潭都市圈, PCA-STIRPAT模型, 地理探测器