主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

World Regional Studies ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 19-32.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.05.20240062

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Analysis of the characteristics of the global rice trade network and its implications

Hongjie SUN(), Wanfei XING, Yaqin LI   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China
  • Received:2024-02-02 Revised:2024-03-29 Online:2025-05-15 Published:2025-06-03

全球稻米贸易网络特征分析及启示

孙红杰(), 邢宛飞, 李亚钦   

  1. 兰州理工大学经济管理学院,兰州 730050
  • 作者简介:孙红杰(1986—),男,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为贸易经济,人口、资源与环境经济学,E-mail:sunhj@lut.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金地区项目(72464020);甘肃省科技厅软科学项目(23JRZA443)

Abstract:

Based on the global rice trade relationship matrix from 2001 to 2022, employs the Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP) to analyze the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the global rice trade network. Key findings include: ①the rice export system is highly centralized, predominantly in Thailand, India, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United States, contrasting with a numerous and dispersed rice import system. The export monopoly in rice trade is significantly more pronounced than import competition.②The rice trade exhibits a multipolar pattern with increasing network size and density. Enhancements in trade agglomeration, connectivity efficiency, and accessibility are evident, lending the network 'small world' characteristics. China maintains robust independent trade capabilities in the global rice market, yet exhibits limited control over rice trade flows. ③ The rice trade network communities display a mix of spatial agglomeration and heterogeneity. The European community has distinct boundaries and high spatial integration, while communities in the Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa show chaotic and mixed affiliations. Thailand, the United States, India, and Italy remain central in trade network communities, with Kenya, C?te d'Ivoire, Senegal, Trinidad and Tobago on the periphery. ④Variations in per capita rice production and labor force size significantly positively influence rice trade, while disparities in government efficiency, tariff rates, and geographical proximity adversely affect it.. It is advised that the government of China should implement a risk early-warning system for rice import supply, refine the structure of imports, augment the efficacy of governmental services, and bolster the impact of supply chains. Such comprehensive measures are crucial to safeguarding the security of rice supply.

Key words: global rice trade, complex network, international trade network, QAP analysis, influencing factors

摘要:

基于2001—2022年全球稻米贸易关系矩阵,研究全球稻米贸易网络格局演化特征,运用QAP方法分析其影响因素。研究发现:①稻米出口系统分布较为集中,主要集中于泰国、印度、越南、巴基斯坦、美国,而稻米进口系统数量众多且分散;稻米贸易出口垄断程度明显高于进口贸易。②稻米贸易呈多极化格局,贸易网络规模与密度不断增加,贸易集聚性、连接效率与可达性不断增强,贸易网络具有“小世界”特征。中国在全球稻米贸易中保持较好的独立自主贸易能力,但对稻米贸易流动的控制能力不强。③稻米贸易网络社群具有空间集聚与混杂并存的分布特征,从区域尺度上看,欧洲社群边界相对清晰、空间整合度高,亚太、中东、非洲等区域的社群归属呈紊乱混杂状态;从国家尺度上看,泰国、美国、印度、意大利一直处于贸易网络社群核心位置,肯尼亚、科特迪瓦、塞内加尔、特立尼达和多巴哥等处于贸易网络社群边缘位置。④稻米人均产出差异、劳动力规模差异对稻米贸易具有显著的正向影响;政府效能差异、关税水平差异、地理距离对其存在负向影响。基于此,提出建立稻米进口供给风险预警机制、优化进口结构、提升政府服务效能和供应链影响力等举措确保稻米供给安全。

关键词: 全球稻米贸易, 复杂网络, 国际贸易网络, QAP分析, 影响因素