Abstract:

Based on the data of Taobao village issued by Ali Research Institute, "growth-disappearance rate" calculation, nuclear density analysis method and optimized hot spot analysis are used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of Taobao village's "growth-disappearance" in China from 2009 to 2020. The results show that: ①From the perspective of time dimension, Taobao village in China has experienced the germination period, growth period and the rapid expansion period at the present stage. However, the "disappearance/growth" presented a "broken line" change trend of "steep at first, then slow down and then steep", indicating that the disappeared Taobao villages "increased at first, then decreased and then increased". ② From the perspective of spatial characteristics, using four time sections in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020, it is found that the "growth-disappearance" of Taobao village in China gradually expanded to the central and western parts of the eastern coastal areas, which developed from "dot" to "ribbon". In terms of spatial distribution, agglomeration and correlation, the "growth-disappearance" distribution of Taobao villages in 2020 shows a pattern of "decreasing from the east to the west, and deepening from the north to the south (coastal areas) ,the hot spots are concentrated and the cold spots are scattered". ③ From the perspective of survival type, most of the Taobao villages in the eastern region are growth type, followed by low flow type, and a few areas are recession type. The central and western regions are mostly growth and low flow, followed by high flow and recession. ④ From the perspective of influencing factors, homogenization competition, industry involution, business operation skills, e-commerce transformation and market sensitivity are the main reasons for the disappearance of Taobao village. The results of this study provide reference for the healthy development of Taobao village in rural areas and the optimization of government policies.

Key words: Taobao village, spatio-temporal characteristics, growth-disappearance, influencing factors, China, e-commerce

摘要：

基于阿里研究院发布的淘宝村2009—2020年数据，运用“增长-消失”率、核密度分析法、冷热点分析、组合分类等方法对中国淘宝村“增长-消失”的时空特征及影响因素进行研究。结果发现：①从时间维度看，中国淘宝村经历了萌芽期、成长期以及现阶段的高速扩张期；但“消失/增长”呈现出“先陡再缓后陡”的“折线形”变化态势，表明消失的淘宝村呈现“先增后减再增”的特点。②从空间特征来看，利用2014、2016、2018和2020年4个时间断面，发现中国淘宝村的“增长-消失”由“点状”发展成“带状”的东部沿海地区逐渐向中西部扩展；在空间分布、集聚与关联上，2020年淘宝村“增长-消失”分布呈现出“东中西依次递减，北中南（沿海）集聚加深，热点集中冷点偏散”的格局。③从生存类型来看，东部地区淘宝村多为增长型，其次为低流动型，有少量地区为衰退型；中西部地区多为增长型以及低流动型，其次为高流动型、衰退型。④从影响因素来看，同质化竞争、行业内卷化、商户经营技能、电商转型、市场敏锐程度是导致淘宝村消失的主要原因，期待这一研究结果能为淘宝村在农村地区的健康发展和政府政策优化提供借鉴。

关键词: 淘宝村, 时空特征, “增长-消失”, 影响因素, 中国, 电子商务