World Regional Studies ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 128-140.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.06.20222029
Guandong SONGa(), Chengli TANGa(), Guohua ZHOUa,b
Received:
2022-07-11
Revised:
2022-12-29
Online:
2024-06-15
Published:
2024-06-28
Contact:
Chengli TANG
通讯作者:
唐承丽
作者简介:
宋关东(1991—),男,博士研究生,研究方向为区域经济与产业发展,E-mail: gdsong91@163.com。
基金资助:
Guandong SONG, Chengli TANG, Guohua ZHOU. Analysis of rural resilience measurement and its influencing factors based on county scale: A case study of Hunan Province[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(6): 128-140.
宋关东, 唐承丽, 周国华. 基于县域尺度的乡村韧性测量及其影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(6): 128-140.
准则层 | 指标层 | 单位 | 权重 | 指标解释 |
---|---|---|---|---|
抵御与吸收能力(B1) | 农林牧渔业生产总值(C1) | 亿元 | 0.086 2 | 反映乡村经济规模,规模越大,抵抗、吸收风险能力越强 |
农村居民人均可支配收入(C2) | 万元 | 0.099 7 | 反映农民应对风险的能力 | |
已建堤防长度(C3) | km | 0.078 6 | 反映乡村抵抗自然风险的能力 | |
每万人村委会数量(C4) | 个 | 0.067 3 | 反映村级组织管理能力 | |
恢复与适应能力(B2) | 乡村从业人员增长率(C5) | % | 0.093 0 | 反映乡村抵御危机的能力 |
农村用电量增长率(C6) | % | 0.079 2 | 反映乡村生产、生活恢复状况 | |
水土流失综合治理面积增长率(C7) | % | 0.068 4 | 反映乡村生态环境治理能力 | |
农地产出率(C8) | 万元/hm2 | 0.083 1 | 反映土地综合利用水平 | |
农业劳动生产率(C9) | 元/人 | 0.098 3 | 反映农业生产、组织和管理水平 | |
创新与转型能力(B3) | 乡镇规模以上工业企业个数(C10) | 个 | 0.097 2 | 企业规模越大,创新意识、创新能力越强 |
非农产值与农业产值比(C11) | % | 0.077 1 | 反映乡村产业结构状况 | |
单位面积农业机械动力(C12) | kw/hm2 | 0.071 9 | 反映农村科技进步水平 |
Tab.1 Rural resilience measurement index system
准则层 | 指标层 | 单位 | 权重 | 指标解释 |
---|---|---|---|---|
抵御与吸收能力(B1) | 农林牧渔业生产总值(C1) | 亿元 | 0.086 2 | 反映乡村经济规模,规模越大,抵抗、吸收风险能力越强 |
农村居民人均可支配收入(C2) | 万元 | 0.099 7 | 反映农民应对风险的能力 | |
已建堤防长度(C3) | km | 0.078 6 | 反映乡村抵抗自然风险的能力 | |
每万人村委会数量(C4) | 个 | 0.067 3 | 反映村级组织管理能力 | |
恢复与适应能力(B2) | 乡村从业人员增长率(C5) | % | 0.093 0 | 反映乡村抵御危机的能力 |
农村用电量增长率(C6) | % | 0.079 2 | 反映乡村生产、生活恢复状况 | |
水土流失综合治理面积增长率(C7) | % | 0.068 4 | 反映乡村生态环境治理能力 | |
农地产出率(C8) | 万元/hm2 | 0.083 1 | 反映土地综合利用水平 | |
农业劳动生产率(C9) | 元/人 | 0.098 3 | 反映农业生产、组织和管理水平 | |
创新与转型能力(B3) | 乡镇规模以上工业企业个数(C10) | 个 | 0.097 2 | 企业规模越大,创新意识、创新能力越强 |
非农产值与农业产值比(C11) | % | 0.077 1 | 反映乡村产业结构状况 | |
单位面积农业机械动力(C12) | kw/hm2 | 0.071 9 | 反映农村科技进步水平 |
分维度评价 | 2012年 | 2013年 | 2014年 | 2015年 | 2016年 | 2017年 | 2018年 | 2019年 | 2020年 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
抵御与吸收能力 | 0.212 4 | 0.398 2 | 0.422 5 | 0.491 6 | 0.660 9 | 0.792 4 | 0.783 3 | 0.805 6 | 0.884 8 |
恢复与适应能力 | 0.194 7 | 0.209 3 | 0.313 9 | 0.392 2 | 0.415 3 | 0.524 4 | 0.536 0 | 0.592 2 | 0.610 4 |
创新与转型能力 | 0.223 7 | 0.151 6 | 0.158 9 | 0.206 2 | 0.242 5 | 0.324 3 | 0.448 1 | 0.560 1 | 0.463 2 |
Tab.2 Evaluation values for each sub-factor
分维度评价 | 2012年 | 2013年 | 2014年 | 2015年 | 2016年 | 2017年 | 2018年 | 2019年 | 2020年 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
抵御与吸收能力 | 0.212 4 | 0.398 2 | 0.422 5 | 0.491 6 | 0.660 9 | 0.792 4 | 0.783 3 | 0.805 6 | 0.884 8 |
恢复与适应能力 | 0.194 7 | 0.209 3 | 0.313 9 | 0.392 2 | 0.415 3 | 0.524 4 | 0.536 0 | 0.592 2 | 0.610 4 |
创新与转型能力 | 0.223 7 | 0.151 6 | 0.158 9 | 0.206 2 | 0.242 5 | 0.324 3 | 0.448 1 | 0.560 1 | 0.463 2 |
驱动因素 | 具体指标 | 绝对关联度 | 相对关联度 | 综合关联度 |
---|---|---|---|---|
自然条件与资源禀赋 | 平均海拔/m | 0.602 6 | 0.685 3 | 0.687 2 |
人均耕地灌溉面积/hm² | 0.568 4 | 0.675 9 | 0.608 6 | |
基础设施水平 | 人均公路里程/km | 0.594 3 | 0.861 0 | 0.756 2 |
经济发展水平 | 人均GDP/万元 | 0.885 7 | 0.937 5 | 0.910 4 |
社会状况 | 动力数量占人口比例/% | 0.901 1 | 0.804 2 | 0.832 1 |
人口密度/(人/km2) | 0.886 3 | 0.821 4 | 0.805 3 |
Tab. 3 Analysis of rural resilience correlation indicators
驱动因素 | 具体指标 | 绝对关联度 | 相对关联度 | 综合关联度 |
---|---|---|---|---|
自然条件与资源禀赋 | 平均海拔/m | 0.602 6 | 0.685 3 | 0.687 2 |
人均耕地灌溉面积/hm² | 0.568 4 | 0.675 9 | 0.608 6 | |
基础设施水平 | 人均公路里程/km | 0.594 3 | 0.861 0 | 0.756 2 |
经济发展水平 | 人均GDP/万元 | 0.885 7 | 0.937 5 | 0.910 4 |
社会状况 | 动力数量占人口比例/% | 0.901 1 | 0.804 2 | 0.832 1 |
人口密度/(人/km2) | 0.886 3 | 0.821 4 | 0.805 3 |
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