Abstract:

The digitalization and serviceability of international trade have become typical features of the current economic structural transformation. Based on the bilateral digital service trade data of 65 countries along the Belt and Road from 2005 to 2021, this paper applies the complex network analysis method to deconstruct the network effects of digital service trade of countries along the Belt and Road from the "node-path-pattern" multi-level, and uses the time index random graph model to test. The findings are as follows:① From the point of view of primary node, the net flow of digital service trade between China and neighboring countries is relatively stable, while the middle countries of the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea are more volatile, and have "remote" attributes and "community" inertia characteristics.②From the perspective of backbone path, the digital service trade network path of countries along the "One Belt and One Road" has been continuously reconstructed, gradually forming two "community" patterns: China-Singapore-India "three core" and China-India-Singapore, Russia-Ukraine-Cyprus, and the "leader" effect is obvious.③ From the perspective of spatial pattern, it shows the characteristics of sparse east and dense west, directivity and density on the whole, and the geographical distance sensitivity decreases, the communication channels are diversified, and the number of participating regions increases.④Reciprocity and stability affecting the digital service trade network, economic development level, population size, internet penetration rate,common continent, common language and trade agreements are among the most important influencing factors.

Key words: digital service trade, network structure, dominant flow, time exponential random graph model, Belt and Road Initiative

摘要：

世界经济正处在新旧动能的转换阶段，国际贸易数字化和服务化已成为当下经济结构转型的典型特征。基于2005—2021年65个“一带一路”共建国家或地区数字服务双边贸易统计数据，应用复杂网络分析方法从“节点-路径-格局”多层级解析“一带一路”数字服务贸易网络结构演变特征，并采用时间指数随机图模型进行影响因素分析。研究发现：①从主要节点看，中国与周边国家数字服务贸易净流动始终相对稳定，而黑海与波罗的海沿岸国家则波动较大，且具有“远程式”属性和社团惯性特征。②从骨干路径看，“一带一路”数字服务贸易网络路径不断重构，逐渐形成中国-新加坡-印度三核心社团和中国-印度-新加坡、俄罗斯-乌克兰-塞浦路斯两大核心社团格局，“领头羊”效应明显。③从空间格局看，整体上表现出东疏西密、指向性及稠密化特征，且地理距离敏感性下降、沟通渠道多元化、参与地区数量增多。④从影响因素看，除边效应、互惠性和稳定性直接影响数字服务贸易网络构建外，经济发展水平、人口规模、互联网普及率、同属一个大洲、共同语言以及贸易协定等因素也不容忽视。

关键词: 数字服务贸易, 网络结构, 优势流, 时间指数随机图模型, “一带一路”