Abstract:

Under the challenges posed by the scarcity of water-energy resources, as well as the growing pressures of carbon emissions,to prevent the irrational diversion of water resources from agriculture, we integrate water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture(WTAN) within the water-energy-carbon coupling framework. Based on the measured degree of WTAN and the comprehensive evaluation indices of the water, energy, and carbon emission systems, a coupling coordination model is employed to calculate the coordinated development level of WTAN-water-energy-carbon. Subsequently, the influence characteristics of WTAN are summarized. The results suggest that: ① In major agricultural provinces of China, the coupling coordination level of WTAN-water-energy-carbon display pronounced spatial disparities. The evolutionary trends can be categorized into five distinct types: steady change, fluctuating increase, fluctuating decrease, decrease followed by increase, and irregular variation. ② WTAN exerts a detrimental influence on the coupling coordination development of the water-energy-carbon across the majority of provinces, and this adverse effect intensifies with the passage of time. ③ There are regional differences in the coordination between WTAN and the individual systems of water, energy, and carbon, where it predominantly imposes a suppressive and negative impact on these individual systems within most provinces. Through the moderate implementation of WTAN and the advancement of the diversification of resource management, we can optimize the methodology of resource utilization, thereby propelling the comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable development of society.

Key words: water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture, coupling coordination degree, water-energy-carbon, major agricultural provinces of China

摘要：

在水能资源短缺、碳排放压力日益严峻的形势下，为抑制农业水资源的不合理转移，本研究将水资源“农转非”纳入水-能-碳耦合的分析框架。本文以中国农业大省为例，在对水资源“农转非”程度进行测度及对水资源、能源、碳排放系统进行综合评价的基础上，采用耦合协调模型测算水资源“农转非”-水-能-碳的协调发展水平，进而总结水资源“农转非”的影响特征。结果表明：①中国农业大省水资源“农转非”-水-能-碳耦合协调水平空间差异显著，演变趋势可分为平稳变化、波动上升、波动下降、先降后升、不规律变化5种类型；②水资源“农转非”对多数省份水-能-碳耦合协调发展产生消极影响，且这种消极影响随时间推移逐渐增强；③水资源“农转非”与水-能-碳单个系统的协调性存在地域差异，对多数省份单个系统起到负向抑制作用。通过适度开展水资源“农转非”并促进资源管理的多元化，可以优化资源利用方式，推动社会全面协调与可持续发展。

关键词: 水资源“农转非”, 耦合协调度, 水-能-碳耦合, 中国农业大省