Abstract:

Amidst great-power strategic competition, the weaponization of economic interdependence poses severe challenges to national security. However, existing research—whether focused on the sender states of geoeconomic coercion or grounded in traditional economic resilience theories—fails to adequately explain how target states respond to deliberate geoeconomic attacks, revealing a notable theoretical gap. To address this, this paper proposes the concept of "geoeconomic resilience" and constructs a dynamic analytical framework. This framework defines geoeconomic resilience as the comprehensive capacity of a target state to safeguard its core geostrategic interests through shock absorption, adaptive adjustment, and strategic transformation following deliberate geoeconomic coercion. It emphasizes the critical moderating role played by core national endowments such as the industrial system, market size, and governance model. Through a case study of China in the context of China-U.S. rivalry, the research finds that by virtue of its complete industrial system and vast domestic market, China's geoeconomic resilience has proven robust in securing its baseline interest of national survival. Nevertheless, in pursuing the higher-level goal of autonomous development, it faces a mixed picture of both achievements and persistent challenges.

Key words: geoeconomics, geoeconomic tools, geoeconomic resilience, geostrategy, China-US strategic competition

摘要：

在大国战略竞争背景下，经济相互依赖的“武器化”对国家安全构成严峻挑战。然而，现有研究或聚焦于地缘经济胁迫发起国，或以传统经济韧性理论切入，均未能有效解释目标国如何应对蓄意的地缘经济冲击，存在明显的理论空白。为此，本文提出“地缘经济韧性”概念，并构建了一个动态的分析框架。该框架将地缘经济韧性界定为在遭受蓄意的地缘经济胁迫后，目标国通过吸收冲击、适应性调整与战略转型，最终维护其核心地缘战略利益的综合能力，并强调国家产业体系、市场规模与治理模式等核心禀赋在其中发挥着关键的调节作用。通过分析中美博弈中的中国案例，研究发现，凭借完备的工业体系与庞大的内需市场，中国地缘经济韧性在维护生存安全这一底线利益上表现充分，但在追求自主发展的更高目标时成果与挑战并存。

关键词: 地缘经济, 地缘经济手段, 地缘经济韧性, 地缘战略, 中美博弈