Abstract:

The development of new quality productive forces based on local conditions is an important strategic requirement proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping. Based on the connotation of new quality productive forces, a comprehensive evaluation system is constructed from two dimensions: technological innovation-driven factors and new quality production elements. Using the entropy weight TOPSIS method, this study measures the comprehensive level of new quality productive forces in 21 provinceial units across three major river basins from 2012 to 2022. Additionally, the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and optimal parameter geographical detector methods are employed to examine regional disparities and influencing factors of new quality productive forces. The findings indicate that, ①first, the overall level of new quality productive forces in the three major river basins shows an upward trend, with the order of development being the Yangtze River Basin > the Pearl River Basin > the Yellow River Basin. Furthermore, all three river basins exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, following a distribution pattern of "higher in the east and lower in the west." ②Second, the regional disparity analysis reveals that the gap in new quality productive forces among the three river basins initially widened and then narrowed. The Yangtze River Basin has the smallest internal disparity, while the Pearl River Basin has the largest. The largest inter-basin disparity exists between the Yangtze River Basin and the Pearl River Basin, with inter-basin differences being the primary source of variation in new quality productive forces among the three major river basins. ③Finally, the key influencing factors restricting the development of new quality productive forces vary significantly across the three river basins. Specifically, the Yangtze River Basin is mainly driven by economic development, industrial upgrading, and entrepreneurial activity; the Pearl River Basin is influenced by industrial upgrading, industrial agglomeration, and economic development; while the Yellow River Basin is primarily shaped by industrial agglomeration, industrial upgrading, and capital investment. This study provides theoretical guidance and policy recommendations for enhancing the level of new quality productive forces in the three major river basins.

Key words: new quality productive forces, three major river basins, regional differences, dynamic evolution, influencing factors

摘要：

因地制宜发展新质生产力是习近平总书记提出的重要战略要求。基于新质生产力内涵，本文从科技创新驱动和新质生产要素两个维度构建评价指标体系，并运用熵权TOPSIS法测算2012—2022年三大流域21个省（市）新质生产力的综合水平，之后采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计和最优参数地理探测器考察新质生产力的区域差异及其影响因素。研究发现：①三大流域新质生产力整体呈上升趋势，具体表现为长江流域＞珠江流域＞黄河流域。此外，三大流域新质生产力均具有显著的空间异质性，呈“东高西低”的分布格局。②区域差异分析表明，三大流域新质生产力差距呈“先扩大后缩小”趋势，其中，长江流域内部差异最小，珠江流域内部差异最大。长江-珠江流域组间差距最大，且组间差距是三大流域新质生产力差异的主要原因。③三大流域新质生产力的主要影响因素具有显著异质性：长江流域主要受经济水平、产业高级化和创业活跃度引领；珠江流域受产业高级化、产业集聚和经济水平驱动；黄河流域则以产业集聚、产业高级化和资本投入为主导。本研究可为提升三大流域新质生产力水平提供理论指导和政策建议。

关键词: 新质生产力, 三大流域, 区域差异, 动态演进, 影响因素