全球锂离子蓄电池出口贸易竞争力及影响力时空演变分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.09.20222476

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

锂离子蓄电池作为一种新兴清洁能源，是实现“双碳”目标的重要支撑。为探究全球主要锂离子蓄电池出口国在出口贸易中竞争力和影响力的格局和特征，本文基于UN Comtrade数据库分析了2012—2020年全球锂离子蓄电池出口贸易的总体格局，并从主要国家出口贸易额的优势地位、贸易流动过程中的控制能力、贸易渠道的多元化三个维度分析其竞争力并利用构建的影响力评价指标分析主要锂离子蓄电池出口国（中、日、韩）的出口影响力。结果显示：（1）全球锂离子蓄电池出口规模呈持续上升趋势，且空间不均衡性在逐渐缩小，从最初集中在欧洲、东亚、北美洲地区到后来基本涵盖全球。（2）中国在出口寡占能力、出口结构方面占据绝对优势地位；美、德两国具有较高的贸易中介控制能力；日、韩两国具有一定的寡占优势，但都小于中国。（3）中国锂离子蓄电池出口不同影响类型的国家数量分布均匀，且强影响类型国家数量在不断增加；日、韩两国不同影响类型国家数量出现“两极分化”现象，强影响类型国家数量最少，弱影响类型最多。（4）美国、德国、法国等一些欧美发达国家受日、韩两国强影响，受中国较强或中等影响。此外，基于研究结论，提出了促进中国锂离子蓄电池出口贸易发展的相关建议。

关键词: 锂离子蓄电池, 出口贸易, 竞争力, 影响力, 时空演变

Abstract:

As a new clean energy source, lithium-ion battery is an important support point to achieve the goal of "double-carbon". In order to explore the competitiveness and influence of major lithium-ion battery exporters in export trade, this paper analyzes the overall pattern of lithium-ion battery export trade from 2012 to 2020, and analyzes the competitiveness of major countries in export trade volume, the control ability in trade flow and diversified trade channels; and analyzes the influence evaluation index of major lithium-ion battery exporters (China, Japan and South Korea). The results show that: (1) the global export scale of lithium ion battery shows a continuous upward trend and the spatial imbalance is gradually shrinking, from the beginning of the concentration in Europe, East Asia, North America to later basically covering the whole world.(2) China has an absolute dominant position in the export weak capacity and export structure; the United States and Germany have high trade intermediary control ability; Japan and South Korea have certain dominant advantages but both less in advantage than China.(3) The number of countries with different influence types of lithium ion battery export in China is evenly distributed and the number of trading partners is increasing; the number of countries (regions) in Japan and South Korea is "polarizing", with the least influenced countries(regions) and the most weak influence types.(4) The United States, Germany, France and some other developed countries are very strongly influenced by Japan and South Korea, and they are relatively strong or moderately influenced by China.In addition, based on the research conclusions, some suggestions are put forward to promote the development of China's lithium ion battery export trade.

Key words: lithium-ion battery, export trade, competitiveness, influence, time-space evolution

宋勇成, 刘建忠, 张寅宝, 张欣佳. 全球锂离子蓄电池出口贸易竞争力及影响力时空演变分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(9): 17-30.

Yongcheng SONG, Jianzhong LIU, Yinbao ZHANG, Xinjia ZHANG. Analysis on the spatial and temporal evolution of the competitiveness and influence of the global lithium ion battery export trade[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(9): 17-30.

图/表 10

参考文献 29

1	前瞻研究院.2020年中国动力电池行业市场现状及竞争格局分析累计产量突破80GWh.(2021-02-23)[2022-12-01]..
	QianZhan Industry Research Institute.In 2020, the cumulative output of China's power battery industry exceeded 80GWh.(2021-02-23)[2022-12-01]..
2	张锐,洪涛.清洁能源供应链与拜登政府的重塑战略:基于地缘政治视角.和平与发展,2022(1):16-37.
	ZHANG R, HONG T.Clean energy supply chain and the Biden administration's reshaping strategy: From a geopolitical perspective.Peace and Development,2022(1):16-37.
3	国务院.中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要».(2021-03-13)[2022-12-30]..
	The State Council.The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the 2035 Vision Target.(2021-03-13)[2022-12-30]..
4	蔡艳龙,李建武.全球锂资源开发利用形势分析及启示.地球学报,2017,38(1):25-29.
	CAI Y, LI J.The analysis and enlightenment of exploitation situation of global lithium resources.Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2017,38(1):25-29.
5	王秋舒,元春华.全球锂矿供应形势与我国资源安全保障建议.中国矿业,2019,28(5):1-6.
	WANG Q, YUAN C.The global supply situation of lithium ore and suggestions on resource security in China.China Mining Magazine,2019,28(5):1-6.
6	杨卉芃,柳林,丁国峰.全球锂矿资源现状及发展趋势.矿产保护与利用,2019,39(5):26-40.
	YANG H, LIU L, DING G.Present situation and development trend of lithium resources in the world.Conservation and Utilization of Mineral Resources,2019,39(5):26-40.
7	周园园.中国锂资源供需形势及对外依存度分析.资源与产业,2019,21(5):46-50.
	ZHOU Y.Supply-demand situation and external dependence of China's lithium resource.Resources & Industries,2019,21(5):46-50.
8	王浩,黄根红,陈瑞英,等.全球锂资源供需展望及锂产品价格预测.中国有色冶金,2022,51(6):1-11.
	WANG H, HUANG G, CHEN R,et al.Supply and demand outlook of lithium resources and price forecast of lithium products.China Nonferrous Metallurgy,2022,51(6):1-11.
9	王自国.锂供需分析及价格波动分析.中国矿业,2020,29(S1):16-18.
	WANG Z.Analysis of lithium supply and demand and price fluctuation.China Mining Magazine,2020,29(S1):16-18.
10	郭娟,崔荣国,邢佳韵,等.全球锂供需分析及展望.中国矿业,2017,26(11):27-31.
	GUO J, CUI R, XING J,et al.Analysis and outlook of the global lithium resources supply and demand.China Mining Magazine,2017,26(11):27-31.
11	撒兴昌,高天明,张艳.全球碳酸锂贸易格局与供应危机传播研究.地球学报,2023,44(2):341-350.
	SHA X, GAO T, ZHANG Y.Global lithium carbonate trade pattern and spread of supply crisis.Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2023,44(2):341-350.
12	屈金芝,张艳松,张艳,等.新形势下中国锂矿资源供应安全评价.中国矿业,2021,30(12):1-7.
	QU J, ZHANG Y, ZHANG Y,et al.Safety evaluation of lithium resources supply in China under the new situation.China Mining Magazine,2021,30(12):1-7.
13	朱丽丽,杨贝贝,杨雪松.基于复杂网络视角下中国碳酸锂国际贸易地位分析.资源与产业,2016,18(5):14-20.
	ZHU L, YANG B, YANG X.China's global lithium carbonate trading position based on complex network.Resources & Industries,2016,18(5):14-20.
14	朱丽丽,金庆花,杨雪松.基于复杂网络理论的氢氧化锂国际贸易中国地位分析.中国矿业,2016,25(10):49-52.
	ZHU L, JING Q, YANG X.Analysis of China's status in international lithium hydrate trade based on complex network.China Mining Magazine,2016,25(10):49-52.
15	SUN X, HAO H, ZHAO F,et al.Global lithium flow 1994-2015:Implications for improving resource efficienc yand security.Environmental Science&Technology,2018,52(5):2827-2834.
16	赵展一,钟永恒,刘佳,等.全球锂产业专利布局及发展对策研究.无机盐工业,2022,54(7):10-17.
	ZHAO Z, ZHONG Y, LIU J,et al.Research on global patent distribution and development countermeasures of lithium industry.Inorganic Chemicals Industry,2022,54(7):10-17.
17	兰凤崇,李诗成,陈吉清,等.基于专利分析的锂离子动力电池产业发展趋势.科技管理研究,2019,39(12):144-150.
	LAN F, LI S, CHEN J,et al.Development trend of Lithium-ion battery industry based on patent analysis.Science and Technology Management Research,2019,39(12):144-150.
18	张良.新时期中国新能源汽车出口现状与发展展望.价格月刊,2022(7):89-94.
	ZHANG L.Current situation and development prospect of China's new energy vehicle export in the new era.Prices Monthly,2022(7):89-94.
19	王蓓蓓.中国新能源汽车的出口现状及策略分析.财经界,2020(29):35-36.
	WANG B.Export status quo and strategy analysis of China's new energy vehicles.Money China,2020(29):35-36.
20	HUGO B, ADRIAN R, OZGUR M,et al.A mul‐tivariate analysis of hybrid and electric vehicles sales in Mexico.Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,2020(10):100957.
21	HASISHI I.Overview of Japan's efforts on plug-in hybrid vehicles.Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Workshop,2007.
22	丛海彬,邹德玲,高博,等."一带一路"沿线国家新能源汽车贸易网络格局及其影响因素.经济地理,2021,41(7):109-118.
	CONG H, ZHOU D, GAO B,et al.Network patterns and influence factors of new energy vehicle trade along the countries of the Belt and Road.Economic Geography,2021,41(7):109-118.
23	马佳卉,贺灿飞.中间产品贸易网络结构及其演化的影响因素探究——基于贸易成本视角.地理科学进展,2019,38(10):1607-1620.
	MA J, HE C.Structure and change of international trade network of intermediate goods:From the perspective of trade costs.Progress in Geography,2019,38(10):1607-1620.
24	王东方,陈伟强.中国铝土矿贸易与供应安全研究.资源科学,2018,40(3):498-506.
	WANG D, CHEN W.Trade and supply security of bauxite in China.Resources Science,2018,40(3):498-506.
25	HAO X, AN H, SUN X, et al. The import competition relationship and intensity in the international iron ore trade: From network perspective. Resources Policy,2018,57:45-54.
26	李华姣,安海忠,齐亚杰,等.基于产业链国际贸易网络的中国优势矿产资源全球贸易格局和竞争力——以钨为例.资源科学,2020,42(8):1504-1514.
	LI H, AN H, QI Y,et al.Trade and competitiveness structure of China's advantageous mineral resources based on the international trade network of industrial chain: A case study of Tungsten.Resources Science,2020,42(8):1504-1514.
27	徐美娟,许礼刚,袁梦洁.双循环格局下中国关键有色金属资源贸易格局和竞争力分析——以钴为例.世界地理研究,2023,32(6):14-27.
	XU M, XU L, YUAN M.Analysis trade network and competitiveness of China's key non-ferrous metal resources under Dual circulation pattern: A case study of Cobalt.World Regional Studies,2023,32(6):14-27.
28	邵忠忠,熊理然,蒋梅英,等.印度稻米出口贸易时空格局及地缘影响力.资源科学,2022,44(2):375-385.
	SHAO Z, XIONG L, JIANG M,et al.Spatiotemporal patterns and geo-influence of Indian rice export trade.Resources Science,2022,44(2):375-385.
29	张卓颖.新能源汽车财政补贴政策及发展策略探讨.中国市场,2022(32):36-38.
	ZHANG Z.Discussion on financial subsidy policy and development strategy of new energy vehicles.China Market,2022(32):36-38.

指标	变量	特征向量	权重/%	最大特征根	CI值
1	进口国家（地区）从主要出口国进口的锂离子蓄电池占其锂离子蓄电池总进口量的比例	1.667	41.680	4.071	0.024
2	进口国家（地区）从主要出口国进口的锂离子蓄电池占其锂电池总进口量的比例	0.771	19.278
3	主要出口国向进口国家（地区）出口的锂离子蓄电池占其锂离子蓄电池总出口量的比例	1.078	26.948
4	主要出口国向进口国家（地区）出口的锂离子蓄电池占其锂电池总出口量的比例	0.484	12.094

指标	变量	特征向量	权重/%	最大特征根	CI值
1	进口国家（地区）从主要出口国进口的锂离子蓄电池占其锂离子蓄电池总进口量的比例	1.667	41.680	4.071	0.024
2	进口国家（地区）从主要出口国进口的锂离子蓄电池占其锂电池总进口量的比例	0.771	19.278
3	主要出口国向进口国家（地区）出口的锂离子蓄电池占其锂离子蓄电池总出口量的比例	1.078	26.948
4	主要出口国向进口国家（地区）出口的锂离子蓄电池占其锂电池总出口量的比例	0.484	12.094

国家	影响等级	2012年	2015年	2018年	2020年
中国	强	0.347 4~0.575 2	0.389 4~0.599 9	0.454 6~0.599 4	0.419 1~0.611 1
	较强	0.259 5~0.347 4	0.275 2~0.389 4	0.305 1~0.454 6	0.274 5~0.419 1
	中等	0.166 3~0.259 5	0.180 0~0.275 2	0.164 5~0.305 1	0.176 9~0.274 5
	较弱	0.086 3~0.166 3	0.081 0~0.180 0	0.068 9~0.164 5	0.097 9~0.176 9
	弱	0.007 9~0.086 2	0.001 9~0.081 0	0.000 0~0.068 9	0.000 4~0.097 9
日本	强	0.288 1~0.450 9	0.154 0~0.297 5	0.148 9~0.270 5	0.252 1~0.464 0
	较强	0.144 8~0.288 1	0.081 2~0.154 0	0.062 4~0.148 9	0.105 5~0.252 1
	中等	0.076 1~0.144 8	0.045 0~0.081 2	0.022 3~0.062 4	0.048 2~0.105 5
	较弱	0.032 8~0.076 1	0.018 7~0.045 0	0.007 0~0.022 3	0.016 1~0.048 2
	弱	0.000 2~0.032 8	0.000 03~0.018 7	0.000 001~0.007 0	0.000 001~0.016 1
韩国	强	0.410 4~0.599 1	0.121 9~0.447 2	0.186 3~0.309 7	0.261 0~0.396 6
	较强	0.194 1~0.410 4	0.034 4~0.121 9	0.112 1~0.186 3	0.141 0~0.261 0
	中等	0.048 3~0.194 1	0.017 9~0.034 4	0.057 1~0.112 1	0.077 2~0.141 0
	较弱	0.015 3~0.048 3	0.006 3~0.017 9	0.020 1~0.057 1	0.026 3~0.077 2
	弱	0.000 2~0.015 3	0.000 1~0.006 3	0.000 0~0.020 1	0.000 0~0.026 3

国家	影响等级	2012年	2015年	2018年	2020年
中国	强	0.347 4~0.575 2	0.389 4~0.599 9	0.454 6~0.599 4	0.419 1~0.611 1
	较强	0.259 5~0.347 4	0.275 2~0.389 4	0.305 1~0.454 6	0.274 5~0.419 1
	中等	0.166 3~0.259 5	0.180 0~0.275 2	0.164 5~0.305 1	0.176 9~0.274 5
	较弱	0.086 3~0.166 3	0.081 0~0.180 0	0.068 9~0.164 5	0.097 9~0.176 9
	弱	0.007 9~0.086 2	0.001 9~0.081 0	0.000 0~0.068 9	0.000 4~0.097 9
日本	强	0.288 1~0.450 9	0.154 0~0.297 5	0.148 9~0.270 5	0.252 1~0.464 0
	较强	0.144 8~0.288 1	0.081 2~0.154 0	0.062 4~0.148 9	0.105 5~0.252 1
	中等	0.076 1~0.144 8	0.045 0~0.081 2	0.022 3~0.062 4	0.048 2~0.105 5
	较弱	0.032 8~0.076 1	0.018 7~0.045 0	0.007 0~0.022 3	0.016 1~0.048 2
	弱	0.000 2~0.032 8	0.000 03~0.018 7	0.000 001~0.007 0	0.000 001~0.016 1
韩国	强	0.410 4~0.599 1	0.121 9~0.447 2	0.186 3~0.309 7	0.261 0~0.396 6
	较强	0.194 1~0.410 4	0.034 4~0.121 9	0.112 1~0.186 3	0.141 0~0.261 0
	中等	0.048 3~0.194 1	0.017 9~0.034 4	0.057 1~0.112 1	0.077 2~0.141 0
	较弱	0.015 3~0.048 3	0.006 3~0.017 9	0.020 1~0.057 1	0.026 3~0.077 2
	弱	0.000 2~0.015 3	0.000 1~0.006 3	0.000 0~0.020 1	0.000 0~0.026 3

[1]	刘宇斯, 李灿松, 葛旭瑞, 王涛, 王帆. 云南省县域边境地方贸易时空演变及驱动因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(8): 174-188.
[2]	李绪茂, 李弢, 龙祖坤. 美国境外军事基地时空格局演变与动力机制[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(3): 1-14.
[3]	鄢继尧, 赵媛, 熊筱燕, 许昕. 中国家政服务业发展的时空演变特征及影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(3): 161-174.
[4]	陈秀红, 胡志丁, 叶倩源, 牛福长. 后冷战时期阿富汗暴力冲突的时空演变及行为体互动特征研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(2): 40-52.
[5]	梁茂林, 洪菊花, 骆华松, 彭邦文, 熊琛然. 亚太经合组织贸易网络结构时空演变及其影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(1): 18-32.
[6]	张新焕, 张小雷, 张璐, 武荣伟, 周婵. 中国与“一带一路”沿线国家地缘关系时空演变特征[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(9): 17-27.
[7]	冯长强, 武丽丽, 周国众, 齐晓飞, 杜鹏. 东南亚武器贸易格局的时空演变[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(7): 13-23.
[8]	胡平平, 武友德, 李灿松, 王敏. 缅北武装冲突的时空演变及对中国西南边疆地区的影响[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(7): 75-87.
[9]	马慧强, 刘嘉乐, 席建超, 王清. 京津冀地区城市精明发展的时空格局与障碍因子诊断[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(6): 98-107.
[10]	王珂, 赵媛, 鄢继尧, 李逸. 安哥拉石油工业及其在全球地位的时空演变[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(12): 29-40.
[11]	陈俊华, 苏敏, 李澳, 梁嘉玲, 王美君, 杨晓璐. 中东地缘环境时空演变及驱动机制分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(11): 30-42.
[12]	丁晓明, 王成新, 张宇, 李梦程, 王瑞莉, 金振兴. 中国老工业基地城市收缩的时空演变及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(11): 94-107.
[13]	凌旋, 马勇, 任洁. 三亚市旅游休闲业态时空演变特征及其形成机制分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(10): 134-146.
[14]	许翔宇, 徐楚, 许培源. 海上丝绸之路港口网络的层次结构及其时空演变分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(10): 41-51.
[15]	王来顺, 刘建忠, 张寅宝, 张欣佳. “21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家绿色贸易格局的时空演变[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(10): 63-75.