后冷战时代尼罗河流域地缘关系演变研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230738

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

尼罗河流域是中非“一带一路”合作的前沿区域，是非洲经济增速最快的地区之一。近年来，流域地区的整体安全局势渐趋稳定，但跨境水冲突、边界领土争端、族群冲突等事件时有发生，威胁局部地区的和平与稳定。基于新闻事件数据库GDELT，结合社会网络分析方法，对1994年1月至2023年6月尼罗河流域国家之间、流域国家与域外大国之间的地缘关系时空演变特征进行研究，并分析其影响因素。研究发现：①流域总体合作和冲突水平具有相似的演变特征，均经历了增长、稳定、快速增长和下降4个阶段，流域整体地缘关系以合作为主。②流域国家合作关系呈现以苏丹和埃塞俄比亚为核心、“南北分立”的格局；冲突关系格局呈现动态性、局部性的特征，流域主要冲突地带向以埃塞俄比亚和苏丹为核心的流域北部地区转移。③流域国家与域外大国的合作和冲突水平具有明显的极化特征，美国与埃及是最显著的地缘关系，中国成为流域国家的第二大合作国。④跨境水资源利益联结、族群冲突和边界领土争端、大国战略导向、经济联通、文化融通等因素共同影响尼罗河流域的地缘关系演变。

关键词: 尼罗河流域, 地缘关系, 域外大国, 时空演变

Abstract:

The Nile Basin is at the forefront of China-Africa "the Belt and Road" cooperation and is one of the fastest growing regions in Africa. In recent years, the overall security situation in the Nile Basin has been gradually stabilizing, but transboundary water conflicts, boundary and territorial disputes, and ethnic conflicts occurred from time to time, which threatened peace and stability. Based on the event database GDELT, this paper used social network analysis method to examine the spatio-temporal evolution of geo-relations between the Nile Basin countries and between the Nile Basin countries and extraterritorial powers from January 1994 to June 2023, and analyzes its influencing factors. The results show that: ①The level of cooperation and conflict among countries in the Nile Basin has experienced four stages: growth, stabilization, rapid growth, and decline. Cooperation is the predominant type of geo-relations. ②From the perspective of geo-relations between basin countries, Sudan and Ethiopia are centers of the cooperation network; In addition, the main conflict zones have transferred to the northern part of the basin, with Ethiopia and Sudan as the core. ③From the perspective of geo-relations between basin countries and extraterritorial powers, the most prominent geo-relation is between the United States and Egypt.China has become the second largest partner country of basin countries. ④The evolution of geo-relations in the Nile Basin is affected by transboundary water resources benefit linkages, ethnic conflicts, boundaries and territorial disputes, strategies of extraterritorial powers, economic connectivity, and cultural integration.

Key words: the Nile Basin, geo-relation, extraterritorial powers, spatio-temporal evolution

景义博, 张振克. 后冷战时代尼罗河流域地缘关系演变研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(4): 1-15.

Yibo JING, Zhenke ZHANG. The evolution of geo-relations in the Nile Basin in the post-Cold War era[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(4): 1-15.

图/表 5

图1 尼罗河流域总体合作和冲突水平时序演变注：图中k为趋势拟合线的斜率，Pearsons’r为Pearson相关系数。

Fig.1 Evolution of overall cooperation and conflict levels of the Nile Basin

图2 尼罗河流域总体合作冲突水平比注：冲突月为冲突水平大于合作水平的月份。

Fig.2 Ratio of levels of cooperation to conflict of the Nile Basin

图3 尼罗河流域国家地缘关系网络的度中心性特征注：时段划分同下一节流域国家地缘关系时空演变的时段划分一致。

Fig.3 Degree centrality of geo-relation networks of the Nile Basin countries

图4 尼罗河流域国家地缘关系网络注：颜色代表社区，相同颜色表示相同社区；连线代表两国之间合作或冲突水平；数值代表国家的合作或冲突水平的月度均值。

Fig.4 Geo-relations between the Nile Basin countries

图5 尼罗河流域国家与域外大国的地缘关系网络注：连线代表两国之间合作或冲突水平；数值代表国家合作或冲突水平的月度均值。

Fig.5 Geo-relations between the Nile Basin countries and extraterritorial powers

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