Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of urban logistics links in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.05.2020525

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the Modified Gravity Model and Social Network Analysis, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal pattern of the urban logistics links in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2017. And an econometric model is constructed to quantitatively estimate the driving factors of the urban logistics links' strength. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2017, the growth of logistics connection intensity experienced a process from fast to slow. The growth rate in Beijing has slowed down because of the distribution of logistics functions, while cities in Hebei province increased significantly. Although the proportion of logistics connection intensity between Beijing and Tianjin continued to decrease, the pattern of logistics connection concentrated in Beijing and Tianjin did not change fundamentally. (2) The structure of the logistics network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is becoming more and more complex, the control power of network resources in Beijing and Tianjin cities is declining, and the participation and control power of network resources in cities of Hebei are greatly enhanced, gradually forming a multi-core development trend with Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as the center. (3) The construction of urban infrastructure, the level of opening to the outside and the degree of specialization of logistics are the continuous driving forces of logistics connection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. During the research period, the driving force of the logistics connection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is driven by the construction of urban infrastructure and the degree of specialization of logistics, which is transformed into the export-oriented industrialization, and then into the double driving force of export and domestic consumption.

Key words: logistics links, spatial-temporal evolution, driving factors, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

摘要：

基于2005年、2010年和2017年三期数据，采用修正引力模型、社会网络分析法解析京津冀城市物流联系时空演变，并剖析城市物流联系强度的驱动因素。得出如下结论：①2005—2017年物流联系强度增长经历了快速到缓慢的过程，物流功能疏解降低了北京的增速，河北省各城市增长显著，京津两城市物流联系强度占比虽持续降低，但物流联系量集中于京津两地的格局没有发生根本改变；②京津冀城市物流网络结构日趋复杂，京津两城市网络资源控制力下降，河北各城市网络参与度与资源控制力大幅提升，逐渐形成以北京、天津、石家庄为中心的多核心发展态势；③城市基础设施建设、对外开放水平和物流专业化程度是京津冀物流联系的持续驱动，研究期内京津冀城市物流联系的驱动力由基础设施及物流专业化建设驱动，向以外向型为主的工业化驱动转变，进而向以出口加内需消费的双驱动转换。

关键词: 物流联系, 时空演变, 驱动因素, 京津冀地区

Hui LI, Qilong REN, Chunmei ZHANG. Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of urban logistics links in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(5): 1046-1056.

李会, 任启龙, 张春梅. 京津冀城市物流联系时空演变及驱动因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 1046-1056.

Figures/Tables 5

References 31

1	叶士琳,曹有挥,王佳韡,等.长江沿岸港口物流发展格局演化及其机制.地理研究,2018,37(5):925-936.
	YE S, CAO Y, WANG J, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and mechanism of the port logistics system along the Yangtze River. Geographical Research,2018,37(5):925-936.
2	ROS-MCDONNELL L, DE-LA-FUENTE-ARAGÒN M V, ROS-MCDONNELL D, et al. Analysis of freight distribution flows in an urban functional area. Cities,2018,(79):159-168.
3	刘程军,周建平,蒋建华.长江经济带区域物流的空间联系格局及其驱动机制研究.华东经济管理, 2019, 33(9):87-96.
	LIU C, ZHOU J, JIANG J. Research on spatial connection characteristics and driving mechanism of regional logistics in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. East China Economic Management, 2019,33(9):87-96.
4	张璐璐,赵金丽,宋金平.京津冀城市群物流企业空间格局演化及影响因素.经济地理,2019,39(3):125-133.
	ZHANG L, ZHAO J, SONG J. Spatial evolution and influencing factors of logistics enterprises in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Economic Geography, 2019,39(3):125-133.
5	戢晓峰,张雪,陈方,等.基于多源数据的区域物流与经济发展关联特性分析——以云南省为例.经济地理, 2016, 36(1):39-45.
	JI X, ZHANG X, CHEN F, et al. Associated Characteristics analysis of regional logistics and economic development based on multi-source data: the case of Yunnan province. Economic Geography,2016,36(1):39-45.
6	李国旗,金凤君,陈娱,等.基于物流热度的中国物流业空间格局.地理科学进展,2015,34(5):629-637.
	LI G, JIN F, CHEN Y, et al. Spatial patterns of logistics industry based on a geographic analysis of hotness degree. Progress in Geography, 34(5): 629-637.
7	曹卫东.城市物流企业区位分布的空间格局及其演化——以苏州市为例.地理研究,2011,30(11):1997-2007.
	CAO W. Spatial pattern and location evolution of urban logistics enterprises: Taking Suzhou as an example. Geographical Research,2011,30(11):1997-2007.
8	宗会明,王鹏程,戴技才.重庆市主城区物流园区空间布局及其对城市空间结构的影响.地理科学, 2015, 35(7):831-837.
	ZONG H, WANG P, DAI J. The spatial layout of logistics parks in Chongqing urban area and its impacts on the urban structure. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(7):831-837
9	谢守红,蔡海亚,朱迎莹.长三角城市群物流联系与物流网络优化研究.地理与地理信息科学, 2015, 31(4): 76-82.
	XIE S, CAI H, ZHU Y. Research on logistics link and logistics network optimization among cities of Yangtze River Delta. Geography and Geo-Information Scienc,2015, 31(4): 76-82.
10	任梦瑶,肖作鹏,王缉宪.中国城际专线物流网络空间格局.地理学报,2020,75(4):820-832.
	REN M, XIAO Z, WANG J. Spatial pattern of intercity less-than-truckload logistics networks in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,2020,75(4):820-832.
11	王佩佩,王哲,黄佛君,等.丝绸之路经济带下新疆通道轴辐式物流网络构建.经济地理,2016,36(2): 125-130.
	WANG P, WANG Z, HUANG F, et al. The construction of Xinjiang channel hub and spoke network in the Silk Road Economic Zone. Economic Geography,2016, 36(2):125-130.
12	曹炳汝,尹娣.基于轴-辐式理论的长三角区域物流网络的构建研究.地理与地理信息科学,2016, 32(2): 105-110.
	CAO B, YIN D. Construction of regional logistics network for the Yangtze River Delta Based on Hub and Spoke theory. Geography and Geo-Information Science,2016, 32(2): 105-110.
13	CASTELLS M. Rise of the Network Society: The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture. Blackwell Publishers, Inc. 1996.
14	HESSE M, RODRIUE J P. The transport geography of logistics and freight distribution. Journal of Transport Geography, 2004, 12(3):171-184.
15	MATSUMOTO H. International urban systems and air passenger and cargo flows: Some calculations. Journal of Air Transport Management,2004,10(4):239-247.
16	NOTTEBOOM T E, WINKELMANS W. Structural changes in logistics: How will port authorities face the challenge?. Maritime Policy & Management, 2001, 28(1): 71-89.
17	王成金.中国物流企业的空间组织网络.地理学报,2008,63(2):135-146.
	WANG C. Spatial organizational network of loigsitcs company in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,2008. 63(2):135-146.
18	刘正兵,戴特奇,廖聪,等.中国城际公路货运空间网络特征——基于"第一物流"网站数据.经济地理, 2017, 37(6):28-35.
	LIU Z, DAI T, LIAO C, et al. The characters of intercity freight transport networks in China—A case study on"First Cargo"platform. Economic Geography,2017,37(6):28-35.
19	宓泽锋,曾刚.不同尺度下长江经济带物流联系格局、特征及影响因素研究.地理科学,2018,38(7):1079-1088.
	MI Z, ZENG G. Logistics linkage pattern, characteristics and influencing factors of the Yangtze River Economic Belt under different scales. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(7):1079-1088.
20	李鲁奇,马学广.基于运单数据的中国快递型物流网络格局、结构与功能——以宅急送为例.地理科学, 2019, 39(1):89-97.
	LI L, MA X. Pattern, Structure and function of China's express logistics network based on waybill data: A case study of ZJS express. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2019,39(1):89-97.
21	刘程军,周建平,蒋建华,等.电子商务背景下县域物流的空间联系及其网络结构研究——以浙江省为例.地理科学,2019(11):1719-1728.
	LIU C, ZHOU J, JIANG J, et al. County-level logistics spatial linkage and network structure under the electronic commerce environment in Zhejiang province. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019(11):1719-1728.
22	李全喜,金凤花,孙磐石.区域物流引力和地位模型的构建及应用研究.经济地理,2010,30(10):1619-1624+1630.
	LI Q, JIN F, SUN P, et al. Construction and application of regional logistics gravity model & regional logistics status model. Economic Geography,2010,30(10):1619-1624+1630.
23	朱慧,周根贵.基于引力模型的内陆型区域物流空间联系研究——以浙江金衢丽地区为例.地域研究与开发,2015,34(1):43-49.
	ZHU H, ZHOU G. Spatial linkage of inland regional logistics based on gravity model: a case of Jinquli region in Zhejiang province. Areal Research and Development, 2015, 34(1): 43-49.
24	沈丽珍,席广亮,秦萧,等.基于快递物流测度的区域流动空间特征——以江苏省为例.人文地理,2018, 33(1):102-108.
	SHEN L, XI G, QIN X, et al. The research on the characteristics of the regional space of flows based on measurement of the express logistic of flows: a case study of Jiangsu province. Human Geography,2018,33(1):102-108.
25	陆大道,甄峰,刘瑜,等.信息时代社会经济空间组织的变革.北京:科学出版社,2018.
	LU D, ZHEN F, LIU Y, et al. The transformation of social and economic spatial organization in the information age. Beijing: Science Press,2018.
26	齐胜达,雷军,段祖亮,等.中国丝绸之路经济带区域物流空间差异及其演化研究.干旱区地理,2016, 39(1):207-215.
	QI S, LEI J, DUAN Z, et al. Spatial difference and evolution of regional logistic in Silk-road Economic Belt in China. Arid Land Geography, 2016,39(1):207-215.
27	金凤花,李全喜,孙磐石.基于场论的区域物流发展水平评价及聚类分析.经济地理,2010,30(7):1138-1143.
	JIN F, LI Q, SUN P. Evaluation and cluster analysis of regional logistics development level based on field theory. Economic Geography, 2010,30(7):1138-1143.
28	欧向军, 甄峰,秦永东,等.区域城市化水平综合测度及其理想动力分析——以江苏省为例.地理研究, 2008,27(5):993-1002.
	OU X, ZHEN F, QIN Y,et al. Study on compression level and ideal impetus of regional urbanization :The case of Jiangsu province. Geographical Research, 2008,27(5):993-1002.
29	李琳,牛婷玉.基于SNA的区域创新产出空间关联网络结构演变.经济地理,2017,37(9):19-25+61.
	LI L, NIU T. The spatial linkage network structure of regional innovation output—Based on the social network analysis. Economic Geography, 2017,37(9):19-25+61.
30	谢诗光.浙江省县际经济联系网络结构演化分析.世界地理研究,2020,29(4):738-749.
	XIE S. Evolution of the structure of economic linkage network of cities and counties in Zhejiang Province. World Regional Studies,2020,29(4):738-749.
31	钟昌宝,钱康.长江经济带物流产业集聚及其影响因素研究——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析.华东经济管理,2017,31(5):78-86.
	ZHONG C, QIAN K. Research on logistics industry agglomeration and its influencing factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt—An empirical analysis based on spatial durbin model. East China Economic Management,2017,31(5):78-86.

评价目标	评价内容	对应指标/ 单位
物流业综合发展水平	城市发展环境	年末常住人口/万人人均GDP/元单位GDP能耗 / （吨标煤/万元）
	物流需求	社会消费品零售总额/亿元规模以上工业企业/个限额以上批发零售贸易业企业/个
	物流规模	公路货运量/万吨交通运输、仓储和邮政业从业人员/万人交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值/亿元
	信息化水平	移动电话年末用户数/万户国际互联网数/万户
	物流发展基础	境内公路网密度 /（公里/平方公里）物流业建设投资/亿元

评价目标	评价内容	对应指标/ 单位
物流业综合发展水平	城市发展环境	年末常住人口/万人人均GDP/元单位GDP能耗 / （吨标煤/万元）
	物流需求	社会消费品零售总额/亿元规模以上工业企业/个限额以上批发零售贸易业企业/个
	物流规模	公路货运量/万吨交通运输、仓储和邮政业从业人员/万人交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值/亿元
	信息化水平	移动电话年末用户数/万户国际互联网数/万户
	物流发展基础	境内公路网密度 /（公里/平方公里）物流业建设投资/亿元

城市	2005年		2010年		2017年
城市	辐射影响	接受影响	辐射影响	接受影响	辐射影响	接受影响
北京	4009.70	889.68	8576.45	2242.22	12291.22	3208.80
天津	1659.00	1905.03	4244.12	3881.30	6333.09	4768.44
石家庄	369.17	540.02	908.61	1225.62	2052.06	1759.14
唐山	431.21	762.41	1475.88	1896.91	1787.41	2528.95
秦皇岛	58.62	222.59	151.30	537.85	269.77	1401.25
邯郸	174.27	264.25	558.11	686.40	800.05	1433.72
邢台	96.19	271.92	289.18	721.28	777.26	1624.60
保定	241.26	613.51	674.63	1438.85	990.44	2600.34
张家口	43.40	191.55	118.95	445.92	412.15	753.86
承德	20.50	151.17	96.99	475.31	383.12	673.62
沧州	211.29	643.67	840.56	1806.42	958.75	2770.40
廊坊	63.46	729.31	407.55	2504.75	1737.97	4643.98
衡水	50.52	243.48	151.36	630.87	702.08	1328.25

城市	2005年		2010年		2017年
城市	辐射影响	接受影响	辐射影响	接受影响	辐射影响	接受影响
北京	4009.70	889.68	8576.45	2242.22	12291.22	3208.80
天津	1659.00	1905.03	4244.12	3881.30	6333.09	4768.44
石家庄	369.17	540.02	908.61	1225.62	2052.06	1759.14
唐山	431.21	762.41	1475.88	1896.91	1787.41	2528.95
秦皇岛	58.62	222.59	151.30	537.85	269.77	1401.25
邯郸	174.27	264.25	558.11	686.40	800.05	1433.72
邢台	96.19	271.92	289.18	721.28	777.26	1624.60
保定	241.26	613.51	674.63	1438.85	990.44	2600.34
张家口	43.40	191.55	118.95	445.92	412.15	753.86
承德	20.50	151.17	96.99	475.31	383.12	673.62
沧州	211.29	643.67	840.56	1806.42	958.75	2770.40
廊坊	63.46	729.31	407.55	2504.75	1737.97	4643.98
衡水	50.52	243.48	151.36	630.87	702.08	1328.25

城市	度数中心度			接近中心度			中间中心度
城市	2005年	2010年	2017年	2005年	2010年	2017年	2005年	2010年	2017年
北京	100.000	100.000	100.000	100.000	100.000	100.000	73.485	23.788	7.175
天津	58.333	100.000	100.000	70.588	100.000	100.000	10.606	23.788	7.175
石家庄	33.333	66.667	83.333	60.000	75.000	85.714	1.515	4.798	1.898
唐山	16.667	66.667	100.000	54.545	75.000	100.000	0.000	4.848	7.175
秦皇岛	16.667	25.000	58.333	54.545	57.143	70.588	0.000	0.000	1.389
邯郸	16.667	33.333	75.000	54.545	60.000	80.000	0.000	0.000	0.433
邢台	25.000	33.333	66.667	57.143	60.000	75.000	0.758	0.000	0.000
保定	25.000	50.000	75.000	57.143	66.667	80.000	0.000	0.303	0.433
张家口	8.333	16.667	50.000	52.174	54.545	66.667	0.000	0.000	0.253
承德	8.333	25.000	33.333	52.174	57.143	60.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
沧州	16.667	58.333	91.667	54.545	70.588	92.308	0.000	1.566	3.514
廊坊	16.667	41.667	66.667	54.545	63.158	75.000	0.000	0.000	0.859
衡水	8.333	33.333	66.667	52.174	60.000	75.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
平均值	26.923	50.000	74.359	59.548	69.173	81.560	6.643	4.545	2.331