World Regional Studies ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 108-122.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.02.2021957
Jieran DUAN1(), Lijun ZHANG1(), Yaochen QIN1,2, Huixin ZHANG1, Mengnan TIAN1, Jingfan WANG1
Received:
2021-12-18
Revised:
2022-03-10
Online:
2024-02-15
Published:
2024-02-29
Contact:
Lijun ZHANG
段杰冉1(), 张丽君1(), 秦耀辰1,2, 张慧馨1, 田梦男1, 王静帆1
通讯作者:
张丽君
作者简介:
段杰冉(1998—),女,硕士生,研究方向为区域可持续发展,E-mail:duanjieran0419@163.com。
基金资助:
Jieran DUAN, Lijun ZHANG, Yaochen QIN, Huixin ZHANG, Mengnan TIAN, Jingfan WANG. The spatiotemporal differentiation of China's prefectural digital divide and its influencing factors[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(2): 108-122.
段杰冉, 张丽君, 秦耀辰, 张慧馨, 田梦男, 王静帆. 中国城市数字鸿沟时空分异及其影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(2): 108-122.
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URL: https://sjdlyj.ecnu.edu.cn/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.02.2021957
一级指标 | 二级指标 | 变量 | 单位 | 说明 |
---|---|---|---|---|
信息通信技术 发展水平 | 信息通信技术获取 | 固定电话普及率 | % | 固定电话年末用户数与总人口数的比值 |
移动电话普及率 | % | 移动电话年末用户数与总人口数的比值 | ||
信息通信技术使用 | 人均互联网接入数 | % | 互联网宽带接入用户数与总人口数的比值 | |
信息通信技术技能 | 中等教育普及率 | % | 普通中学学生数与总人口数的比值 | |
高等教育普及率 | % | 普通高等学校学生数与总人口数的比值 |
Tab.1 Measurement indicators of ICT development level
一级指标 | 二级指标 | 变量 | 单位 | 说明 |
---|---|---|---|---|
信息通信技术 发展水平 | 信息通信技术获取 | 固定电话普及率 | % | 固定电话年末用户数与总人口数的比值 |
移动电话普及率 | % | 移动电话年末用户数与总人口数的比值 | ||
信息通信技术使用 | 人均互联网接入数 | % | 互联网宽带接入用户数与总人口数的比值 | |
信息通信技术技能 | 中等教育普及率 | % | 普通中学学生数与总人口数的比值 | |
高等教育普及率 | % | 普通高等学校学生数与总人口数的比值 |
自变量 | 变量/单位 | 说明 | 参考文献 |
---|---|---|---|
人口因素 | 女性人口占比(X1 )/% | 女性人口数与总人口数的比值,反映信息通信技术水平的性别差异 | [ |
年轻人口占比(X2 )/% | 年龄在15~64岁的人口数与总人口数的比值,反映信息通信技术水平的年龄差异 | [ | |
城镇化率(X3 )/% | 城市人口数与总人口数的比值,反映信通技术水平的地区差异 | [ | |
社会经济因素 | 人均GDP(X4 )/(万元/人) | 反映个体对信通技术的购买力状况 | [ |
百人信息技术从业人员数(X5 )/(人/百人) | 从事信息传输、计算机服务和软件业的人员数与总人口数比值*100 | [ | |
基础设施因素 | 普通高等学校数(X6 )/所 | 反映信通技术使用者的受教育程度 | [ |
开放度因素 | 外商直接投资项目数(X7 )/万个 | 反映地方制度的开放程度 | [ |
Tab.2 Description of independent variables
自变量 | 变量/单位 | 说明 | 参考文献 |
---|---|---|---|
人口因素 | 女性人口占比(X1 )/% | 女性人口数与总人口数的比值,反映信息通信技术水平的性别差异 | [ |
年轻人口占比(X2 )/% | 年龄在15~64岁的人口数与总人口数的比值,反映信息通信技术水平的年龄差异 | [ | |
城镇化率(X3 )/% | 城市人口数与总人口数的比值,反映信通技术水平的地区差异 | [ | |
社会经济因素 | 人均GDP(X4 )/(万元/人) | 反映个体对信通技术的购买力状况 | [ |
百人信息技术从业人员数(X5 )/(人/百人) | 从事信息传输、计算机服务和软件业的人员数与总人口数比值*100 | [ | |
基础设施因素 | 普通高等学校数(X6 )/所 | 反映信通技术使用者的受教育程度 | [ |
开放度因素 | 外商直接投资项目数(X7 )/万个 | 反映地方制度的开放程度 | [ |
年份 | Moran’s I | P | Z得分 |
---|---|---|---|
2005 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 16.87 |
2010 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 15.38 |
2015 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 13.42 |
2018 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 10.58 |
Tab.3 Global Moran's I statistics of digital divide from 2005 to 2018
年份 | Moran’s I | P | Z得分 |
---|---|---|---|
2005 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 16.87 |
2010 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 15.38 |
2015 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 13.42 |
2018 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 10.58 |
变量 | 无固定 效应 | 空间固定效应 | 时间固定效应 | 双向固定效应 |
---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | -3.38*** | -3.97*** | -3.27*** | -4.01*** |
X2 | 0.35*** | 0.31*** | 0.44*** | 0.42*** |
X3 | 0.51*** | 0.55*** | 0.48*** | 0.52*** |
Ln X4 | 0.07*** | 0.05*** | 0.06*** | 0.04*** |
Ln X5 | 0.12*** | 0.13*** | 0.13*** | 0.15*** |
Ln X6 | 0.03*** | 0.02** | 0.03*** | 0.02** |
Ln X7 | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** |
R2 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.51 |
LM lag | 33.46*** | 34.20*** | 39.16*** | 29.85*** |
R-LMlag | 2.82* | 4.60** | 6.60*** | 6.97*** |
LM error | 46.89*** | 35.08*** | 36.67*** | 24.44*** |
R-LMerror | 16.26*** | 5.47** | 4.11** | 1.56 |
DW | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.48 |
Log-likelihood | -63.46 | 80.71 | 487.56 | 91.70 |
Tab.4 Estimation results of traditional Mixed Panel Data Model
变量 | 无固定 效应 | 空间固定效应 | 时间固定效应 | 双向固定效应 |
---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | -3.38*** | -3.97*** | -3.27*** | -4.01*** |
X2 | 0.35*** | 0.31*** | 0.44*** | 0.42*** |
X3 | 0.51*** | 0.55*** | 0.48*** | 0.52*** |
Ln X4 | 0.07*** | 0.05*** | 0.06*** | 0.04*** |
Ln X5 | 0.12*** | 0.13*** | 0.13*** | 0.15*** |
Ln X6 | 0.03*** | 0.02** | 0.03*** | 0.02** |
Ln X7 | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** |
R2 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.51 |
LM lag | 33.46*** | 34.20*** | 39.16*** | 29.85*** |
R-LMlag | 2.82* | 4.60** | 6.60*** | 6.97*** |
LM error | 46.89*** | 35.08*** | 36.67*** | 24.44*** |
R-LMerror | 16.26*** | 5.47** | 4.11** | 1.56 |
DW | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.48 |
Log-likelihood | -63.46 | 80.71 | 487.56 | 91.70 |
变量 | 弹性系数 | 变量 | 弹性系数 |
---|---|---|---|
X1 | -2.73*** (-3.92) | W*X1 | -2.10*** (-4.33) |
X2 | 0.44*** (3.92) | W*X2 | -0.10 (-0.52) |
X3 | 0.47*** (9.75) | W*X3 | -0.01 (-0.08) |
Ln X4 | 0.06*** (4.48) | W*Ln X4 | 0.10*** (4.00) |
Ln X5 | 0.13*** (8.16) | W*Ln X5 | 0.08*** (3.20) |
Ln X6 | 0.04*** (3.47) | W*Ln X6 | -0.03**(-2.01) |
Ln X7 | 0.04*** (5.81) | W*Ln X7 | 0.02* (1.81) |
W*Y | -0.24*** (-5.21) | ||
R2 | 0.50 | LR_spatial_lag | 21.98*** |
Adj R2 | 0.52 | LR_spatial_error | -791.71*** |
Wald_spatial_lag | 62.23*** | Hausman test | 32.80*** |
Wald_spatial_error | 25.62*** |
Tab.5 Results of estimating SDM under the time-fixed effect
变量 | 弹性系数 | 变量 | 弹性系数 |
---|---|---|---|
X1 | -2.73*** (-3.92) | W*X1 | -2.10*** (-4.33) |
X2 | 0.44*** (3.92) | W*X2 | -0.10 (-0.52) |
X3 | 0.47*** (9.75) | W*X3 | -0.01 (-0.08) |
Ln X4 | 0.06*** (4.48) | W*Ln X4 | 0.10*** (4.00) |
Ln X5 | 0.13*** (8.16) | W*Ln X5 | 0.08*** (3.20) |
Ln X6 | 0.04*** (3.47) | W*Ln X6 | -0.03**(-2.01) |
Ln X7 | 0.04*** (5.81) | W*Ln X7 | 0.02* (1.81) |
W*Y | -0.24*** (-5.21) | ||
R2 | 0.50 | LR_spatial_lag | 21.98*** |
Adj R2 | 0.52 | LR_spatial_error | -791.71*** |
Wald_spatial_lag | 62.23*** | Hausman test | 32.80*** |
Wald_spatial_error | 25.62*** |
变量 | 直接效应 | 间接效应 | 总效应 |
---|---|---|---|
X1 | -2.63*** (-3.73) | -1.21*** (-2.95) | -3.85*** (-6.34) |
X2 | 0.45*** (3.75) | -0.18 (-1.01) | 0.27 (1.70) |
X3 | 0.48*** (9.39) | -0.10 (-1.46) | 0.38*** (6.03) |
Ln X4 | 0.06*** (4.00) | 0.07*** (3.29) | 0.13*** (6.21) |
Ln X5 | 0.12*** (7.55) | 0.05* (2.07) | 0.16*** (8.01) |
Ln X6 | 0.04*** (3.63) | -0.04** (-2.44) | 0.00 (0.18) |
Ln X7 | 0.03*** (5.70) | 0.01 (0.87) | 0.04*** (6.58) |
Tab.6 The direct and indirect effect estimates of SDM
变量 | 直接效应 | 间接效应 | 总效应 |
---|---|---|---|
X1 | -2.63*** (-3.73) | -1.21*** (-2.95) | -3.85*** (-6.34) |
X2 | 0.45*** (3.75) | -0.18 (-1.01) | 0.27 (1.70) |
X3 | 0.48*** (9.39) | -0.10 (-1.46) | 0.38*** (6.03) |
Ln X4 | 0.06*** (4.00) | 0.07*** (3.29) | 0.13*** (6.21) |
Ln X5 | 0.12*** (7.55) | 0.05* (2.07) | 0.16*** (8.01) |
Ln X6 | 0.04*** (3.63) | -0.04** (-2.44) | 0.00 (0.18) |
Ln X7 | 0.03*** (5.70) | 0.01 (0.87) | 0.04*** (6.58) |
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