The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the digitalization of industries in participating countries

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.10.20250477

Abstract

Abstract:

Building the "Digital Silk Road" is an essential pathway for promoting the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, existing studies still lack solid theoretical foundations and empirical evidence regarding whether the BRI can effectively foster industrial digitalization in participating countries. Drawing on OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) data for the period 2009–2020, this paper measures industrial digitalization at the sectoral level and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach to empirically examine the impact of the BRI on industrial digitalization in partner countries. The results show that: ① the BRI significantly promotes industrial digitalization in participating countries, and the findings remain robust across a series of robustness checks; ② the BRI enhances industrial digitalization through multiple channels, including digital infrastructure connectivity, digital technology diffusion, deeper integration into global trade networks, and spillover effects from China's industrial upgrading; ③ heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is more pronounced for Eurasian countries, high-income economies, coastal countries, Maritime Silk Road participants, technology-intensive industries, and producer services; ④ the deepening of digital trade rule networks further strengthens the positive impact of the BRI on industrial digitalization. This study not only quantifies the digitalization effects of the BRI but also provides policy implications for how China can advance industrial digital transformation in partner countries through targeted policy design and strategic initiatives.

Key words: the Belt and Road Initiative, industrial digitalization, Digital Silk Road, multi-period Difference-in-Differences model

摘要：

建设“数字丝绸之路”是共建“一带一路”高质量发展的必由之路，但现有研究对“一带一路”倡议能否有效推动共建国家的产业数字化尚缺乏理论支撑和实证依据。本文基于2009—2020年OECD全球投入产出表数据，测算各国行业层面的产业数字化水平，并采用多时点双重差分方法，实证检验了“一带一路”倡议对共建国家产业数字化的影响。研究发现：①“一带一路”倡议有效地推动了共建国家的产业数字化水平的提升，经过稳健性检验后结果依然成立；②“一带一路”倡议通过数字基础设施互联互通、数字技术扩散、全球贸易网络嵌入深化以及中国产业辐射带动等渠道，促进了共建国家产业数字化水平的提升；③异质性分析发现，“一带一路”倡议对亚欧国家、高收入水平国家、沿海国家、海上丝绸之路国家、技术密集行业以及生产性服务业的推动作用更强；④数字贸易规则网络深化增强了该倡议对共建国家产业数字化的正向促进效应。本研究不仅量化了“一带一路”倡议的产业数字化效应，也为中国如何通过政策设计与战略布局有效推动共建国家产业数字化发展提供了政策启示。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, 产业数字化, 数字丝绸之路, 多时点双重差分模型

Guangda CHEN, Shengbing HE, Zhenni AN. The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the digitalization of industries in participating countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(10): 18-34.

陈光达, 贺胜兵, 安珍妮. “一带一路”倡议对共建国家产业数字化的影响研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(10): 18-34.

Figures/Tables 10

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变量符号	变量名称	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
digital	被解释变量	39 160	0.078	0.085	0.000	0.503
treat×post	解释变量	39 160	0.224	0.417	0.000	1.000
lngdp	经济发展水平	39 160	12.312	1.599	8.965	16.810
citypop	城镇化水平	39 160	69.071	18.389	19.930	100.000
labor	劳动人口比例	39 160	69.325	9.112	38.058	89.205
ip	制度质量	39 160	0.432	0.896	-1.753	1.867
lnfdi	外商直接投资	39 160	11.549	1.568	7.342	16.195
lnfe	贸易自由度	39 160	2.026	0.169	0.765	2.273
ind	产业结构	39 160	26.522	8.492	9.973	73.673

变量符号	变量名称	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
digital	被解释变量	39 160	0.078	0.085	0.000	0.503
treat×post	解释变量	39 160	0.224	0.417	0.000	1.000
lngdp	经济发展水平	39 160	12.312	1.599	8.965	16.810
citypop	城镇化水平	39 160	69.071	18.389	19.930	100.000
labor	劳动人口比例	39 160	69.325	9.112	38.058	89.205
ip	制度质量	39 160	0.432	0.896	-1.753	1.867
lnfdi	外商直接投资	39 160	11.549	1.568	7.342	16.195
lnfe	贸易自由度	39 160	2.026	0.169	0.765	2.273
ind	产业结构	39 160	26.522	8.492	9.973	73.673

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
treat×post	0.001 7^***	0.003 3^**	0.005 2^***	0.002 9^***	0.002 9^***
treat×post	(0.000 6)	(0.001 4)	(0.000 6)	(0.000 7)	(0.000 7)
lngdp		-0.006 7^***	-0.000 6	-0.008 0^**	-0.008 0^**
lngdp		(0.001 7)	(0.002 8)	(0.003 4)	(0.003 4)
citypop		-0.000 1	-0.001 3^***	-0.002 1^***	-0.002 1^***
citypop		(0.000 1)	(0.000 3)	(0.000 3)	(0.000 3)
labor		0.000 3^**	0.000 1	-0.000 1	-0.000 1
labor		(0.000 2)	(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)
ip		0.010 1^***	-0.009 4^***	-0.004 3^**	-0.004 3^**
ip		(0.002 7)	(0.002 2)	(0.002 1)	(0.002 1)
lnfdi		0.011 2^***	0.004 3^***	0.001 9	0.001 9
lnfdi		(0.001 8)	(0.001 2)	(0.001 3)	(0.001 3)
lnfe		-0.018 0^*	0.009 7^***	0.007 5^***	0.007 5^***
lnfe		(0.010 5)	(0.001 9)	(0.002 1)	(0.002 1)
ind		0.000 0	-0.000 1	0.000 2^*	0.000 2^*
ind		(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)
常数项	0.077 6^***	0.047 9^*	0.102 0^***	0.287 5^***	0.287 6^***
常数项	(0.000 1)	(0.027 0)	(0.030 3)	(0.047 7)	(0.047 6)
年份固定	Y	N	N	Y	Y
国家固定	N	N	N	Y	N
行业固定	N	N	N	Y	N
国家-行业固定	Y	N	Y	N	Y
N	39 160	39 160	39 160	39 160	39 160
R-sq	0.949	0.035	0.949	0.689	0.950

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
treat×post	0.001 7^***	0.003 3^**	0.005 2^***	0.002 9^***	0.002 9^***
treat×post	(0.000 6)	(0.001 4)	(0.000 6)	(0.000 7)	(0.000 7)
lngdp		-0.006 7^***	-0.000 6	-0.008 0^**	-0.008 0^**
lngdp		(0.001 7)	(0.002 8)	(0.003 4)	(0.003 4)
citypop		-0.000 1	-0.001 3^***	-0.002 1^***	-0.002 1^***
citypop		(0.000 1)	(0.000 3)	(0.000 3)	(0.000 3)
labor		0.000 3^**	0.000 1	-0.000 1	-0.000 1
labor		(0.000 2)	(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)
ip		0.010 1^***	-0.009 4^***	-0.004 3^**	-0.004 3^**
ip		(0.002 7)	(0.002 2)	(0.002 1)	(0.002 1)
lnfdi		0.011 2^***	0.004 3^***	0.001 9	0.001 9
lnfdi		(0.001 8)	(0.001 2)	(0.001 3)	(0.001 3)
lnfe		-0.018 0^*	0.009 7^***	0.007 5^***	0.007 5^***
lnfe		(0.010 5)	(0.001 9)	(0.002 1)	(0.002 1)
ind		0.000 0	-0.000 1	0.000 2^*	0.000 2^*
ind		(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)	(0.000 1)
常数项	0.077 6^***	0.047 9^*	0.102 0^***	0.287 5^***	0.287 6^***
常数项	(0.000 1)	(0.027 0)	(0.030 3)	(0.047 7)	(0.047 6)
年份固定	Y	N	N	Y	Y
国家固定	N	N	N	Y	N
行业固定	N	N	N	Y	N
国家-行业固定	Y	N	Y	N	Y
N	39 160	39 160	39 160	39 160	39 160
R-sq	0.949	0.035	0.949	0.689	0.950

	(1)	(2)
变量	IV1	IV2
treat×post	0.039 1^***	0.026 8^***
treat×post	(0.017 5)	(0.005 3)
控制变量	控制	控制
年份固定	Y	Y
国家-行业固定	Y	Y
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM值	37.438^***	214.714^***
Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald值	432.787^***	265.802^***
N	37 612	39 160
R-sq	-0.218	-0.089