Abstract:

Population mortality is one of the key factors in population transformation, which is also related to quality of regional social and economic development. Based on crude mortality data from 2000-2015, the study analyzes spatial pattern of population mortality and its evolution in China through coefficient of variation, trend analysis and spatial auto-correlation, and combined with partial least squares regression to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of population mortality. Results show that: 1) China's population mortality rate was generally low in the northwest, northeast, and southeast, and high in the central and southwestern regions. In each period, the mortality rate of the provinces decreased more than the growth provinces. 2) The coefficients of variation of mortality in China's provinces are quite different, and in the spatial trend, the east-west direction shows low ends and middle high, and the north-south direction changes from low ends middle and high to north low south high. 3)The overall spatial concentration of population mortality has continued to weaken, regional differences have narrowed, and the local spatial distribution is dominated by high and low aggregation. 4) The aging of the population is the main driving factor for the increase in the death rate of the population, followed by the total discharge of industrial waste-water, the number of environmental emergencies and climatic conditions. Per capital GDP has a major inhibitory effect on population mortality, followed by the number of beds per 1,000 population, the average number of university students per 100,000 population, the per capital water consumption and the number of days that the air quality reaches level 2 or above account for the proportion of the whole year. The total affected area of crops has inconsistent effects on population mortality in different years.

Key words: population mortality, spatial pattern evolution, spatial auto-correlation, influencing factors, China

摘要：

人口死亡率是人口转型关键因素之一，而人口转型又关系着地区社会经济发展质量。以2000—2015年粗死亡率数据为基础，通过变异系数、趋势分析和空间自相关分析中国人口死亡率空间格局差异及演变态势，并结合偏最小二乘回归定量分析人口死亡率影响因素。结果发现：（1）中国人口死亡率大致呈西北、东北和东南低，中部及西南高态势，且各时段人口死亡率降低省份高于增长省份；（2）中国各省死亡率变异系数差异悬殊，且在空间趋势中东西方向呈现两端低中间高、南北方向由两端低中间高向北低南高转变；（3）人口死亡率全局空间集聚程度不断减弱，区域差异缩小，且局部空间上以高-高和低-低聚集为主；（4）人口老龄化是人口死亡率提升的主要推动因子，其次分别为工业废水排放总量、突发环境事件次数和气候条件等。人均生产总值对人口死亡率起主要抑制作用，其次分别为每千人口床位数、每十万人口大学平均在校生数、人均用水量和空气质量。农作物受灾面积合计对人口死亡率在不同年份作用力不一致。

关键词: 人口死亡率, 空间格局演变, 空间自相关, 影响因素, 中国