Abstract:

The China-India border dispute is the biggest obstacle to the development of China-India relations. The existing studies on the China-India border dispute do not pay enough attention to geographical factors and lack comprehensive analysis of multi-agent and multi-scale, so it is difficult to grasp the essential characteristics and overall situation of the China-India border issue. This paper proposes a multi-scale geopolitical analysis framework to analyze the competitive nature of contemporary China-India border dispute under the joint action of multi-scale and multi-agent. The main conclusion is that the contemporary China-India border dispute is a complex problem caused by multi-scale spatial superposition and multi-agent power game. On the global scale, the China-India border dispute is an important part of the strategic interaction between the United States and India to contain China; At the regional scale of South Asia, China-India border dispute is a land blockade for India and its partner countries to restrict China's expansion of influence in South Asia; On the bilateral scale of China and India, India regards the China-India border dispute as a strategic fulcrum to seek land advantages over China, and tries to gain strategic advantages over China on both land and sea; At the national internal scale, the China-India border dispute is a competition between China and India in the border transformation mechanism; At the border area scale, the China-India border dispute is a competition between the two countries in terms of their ability to effectively manage border areas. The national internal scale is the core scale that determines the China-India border dispute, but the possibility of the two countries reaching a reasonable compromise on this scale is still very small in the short term. The current situation of the global, South Asian region, and bilateral scale is not conducive to a rational solution of the China-India border dispute. The border area scale is the main focus of the China-India border dispute for a long time.

Key words: China-India border dispute, multi-scale analysis, geopolitics, actors, power game

摘要：

中印边界问题是中印关系发展的重大障碍。目前，国内外有关中印边界问题的研究对地理因素关注不足，缺少多行为体、多尺度的综合分析，难以把握中印边界问题的本质特征和整体态势。本文提出多尺度地缘政治分析框架，分析多尺度、多主体共同作用下当代中印边界问题的竞争本质。主要结论为：当代中印边界问题是多尺度空间叠加、多主体权力博弈的复杂问题；在全球尺度上，中印边界问题是美国和印度东西互动遏制中国包围圈的重要组成部分；在南亚区域尺度上，中印边界问题是印度及其伙伴国制衡中国在南亚地区影响力扩大的陆上封锁线；在中印双边尺度上，印度将中印边界问题作为谋求对中国陆上优势的战略支点；在国家内部尺度上，中印边界问题是中印两国边界转化机制的竞争；在边境地区尺度上，中印边界问题是两国对边境地区有效管理能力的竞争。国家内部尺度是中印边界问题的核心尺度，但在该尺度上，两国达成合理妥协的可能性短期内仍很小，全球、南亚和中印双边尺度目前的态势不利于中印边界问题的合理解决，边境地区尺度是很长一段时间内中印边界问题的最主要着力点。

关键词: 中印边界问题, 多尺度分析, 地缘政治, 行为体, 权力博弈