Spatial-temporal evolution analysis of terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2001 to 2020

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.05.20222175

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to reveal the spatial-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2001 to 2020, based on the data collected in the Global Terrorism Database, geostatistical methods such as kernel density, standard deviation ellipse and spatial autocorrelation were used for analysis and research. The results show that the situation of terrorism in Pakistan has experienced three stages from 2001 to 2020. The turning point of the stage is highly consistent with the alternation of political power. The spatial distribution changed from "triangle" to "N-shaped", forming three major terrorist attack clusters with Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta as the core. The density value of casualties decreased significantly, but the scope of terrorist attacks increased, and the density value of terrorist attacks in Karachi and Quetta did not decrease significantly. In different stages, the spatial autocorrelation of terrorist attack events showed differentiation. The clustering characteristics of the original FATA and Quetta clusters were mainly H-H characteristics, while the Karachi cluster was H-L characteristics. Terrorist attacks using explosives are the most frequent, and in recent years attacks on the military, police and journalists and media have increased. The evolution of terrorist attacks in Pakistan is driven by identity factors, political factors, social and economic factors, geographical location factors and other factors, and used by religious extremism and ethnic separatist forces, the scope of terrorist attacks has been expanded in Pakistan, with the central city becoming major targetted area, causing worse impact.

Key words: terrorist attacks, spatial autocorrelation, center migration, driving factors, Pakistan

摘要：

为揭示2001—2020年巴基斯坦恐怖袭击事件的时空演变规律，基于全球恐怖主义数据库收录数据，采用核密度、标准差椭圆、空间自相关等地理统计方法进行分析研究，结果表明：2001—2020年巴基斯坦恐怖主义形势经历了三个阶段，阶段转折点与政治权力交替高度吻合；空间分布从“三角形”转变为“N字形”，形成了以卡拉奇、白沙瓦、奎达为核心的3大恐怖袭击聚集区，伤亡人数的密度值显著减小，但恐袭活动范围有所增大，且卡拉奇、奎达地区恐袭密度值下降不明显；不同阶段恐袭事件的空间自相关呈现分异性，原FATA、奎达聚集区聚类特征主要为H-H特征，而卡拉奇聚集区为H-L特征；使用爆炸物的恐怖袭击频次最多，近年来，对军事、警察和记者媒体的袭击开始增多；巴基斯坦恐袭事件的演变受认同因素、政治因素、社会经济因素、地理位置因素等驱动，并被宗教极端主义和民族分离势力利用，造成巴基斯坦恐袭事件范围不断扩大、中心城市成重灾区、影响愈发恶劣等后果。

关键词: 恐怖袭击, 空间自相关, 重心迁移, 驱动因素, 巴基斯坦

Zhongxiang CAI, Zhekun HUANG, Yong GUO, Maoyu GONG, Yan WANG, Yaowei CHANG. Spatial-temporal evolution analysis of terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2001 to 2020[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(5): 60-72.

蔡中祥, 黄哲琨, 郭勇, 公茂玉, 王岩, 常耀伟. 2001—2020年巴基斯坦恐怖袭击事件时空演变分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(5): 60-72.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Location diagram of Pakistan

Fig.2 Annual distribution of terrorist attacks in Pakistan

Tab. 1 Average absolute deviation of terrorist attacks in Pakistan in different time periods

时间段	爆发次数	死亡人数	受伤人数
2001—2006	31.89	83.67	179.89
2007—2013	526.94	546.61	1 009.47
2014—2020	470.20	530.29	667.18

Fig. 3 Regional distribution changes of terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2001 to 2020

Fig. 4 Ellipse comparison of standard deviations of terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2001 to 2020

Tab. 2 Moran's I index of overall terrorist attacks in Pakistan

类型	时间	全局Moran's I	Z-score	空间自相关	是否显著
爆发次数	2001—2006年	0.056	1.440	随机分布	否
	2007—2013年	0.175	4.008	聚集分布	是
	2014—2020年	0.157	3.537	聚集分布	是
死亡人数	2001—2006年	－0.083	－0.715	随机分布	否
	2007—2013年	0.269	4.701	聚集分布	是
	2014—2020年	0.201	3.967	聚集分布	是
受伤人数	2001—2006年	－0.044	－0.320	随机分布	否
	2007—2013年	0.152	2.772	聚集分布	是
	2014—2020年	0.154	3.165	聚集分布	是

Fig. 5 Distribution of Moran's I in terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2001 to 2020

Fig. 6 Attribute statistics of terrorist attacks in Pakistan

Fig.7 Driving process of terrorist attacks in Pakistan

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