Abstract:

Under the backdrop of the accelerating global pursuit of carbon neutrality, it is of great practical significance to scientifically assess the emission reduction effectiveness of energy structure transformation. Following the Fukushima incident in 2011, Japan has accelerated the development of renewable energy and explicitly set a carbon neutrality target in 2020, positioning renewable energy as a strategic priority. However, its actual contribution to emission reduction remains subject to empirical verification. Using panel data from Japan's 47 prefectures from 2011 to 2020, this study employs a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model to examine the dynamic impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon intensity. The results indicate that, during the study period, the scale of renewable energy development in Japan was insufficient to effectively drive a reduction in carbon intensity, falling short of policy expectations. Further regional heterogeneity analysis reveals that coastal areas, leveraging resource advantages, exhibit a more significant effect of renewable energy in reducing carbon intensity, whereas inland regions show limited emission reduction outcomes due to structural and geographical constraints. Cluster analysis further demonstrates differentiated responses of carbon intensity to renewable energy shocks across regions with distinct development characteristics, reflecting the influence of regional development patterns and energy structures on emission reduction efficacy. These findings provide valuable insights for China in designing region-specific energy transition pathways under its carbon neutrality goal.

Key words: Japan, carbon neutrality, renewable energy, carbon intensity, emission reduction

摘要：

在全球碳中和目标加速推进的背景下，科学评估能源结构转型的减排效能具有重要现实意义。日本自2011年福岛核事故后加快发展可再生能源，并在2020年明确碳中和目标，将可再生能源发展上升至国家战略核心位置，但其实际减排效果仍有待检验。本文选取日本47个都道府县2011—2020年间的数据，采用面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型检验可再生能源与不可再生能源消费对碳强度的动态影响，结果表明，考察期内日本可再生能源发展规模尚不足以有效推动碳强度下降，减排效应未能达到政策预期；进一步的区域异质性分析显示，沿海地区依托资源优势，可再生能源对碳强度下降的作用更为显著，而内陆地区则因条件受限导致减排效果有限；聚类分析结果揭示，不同发展特征的地区碳强度对可再生能源冲击的响应存在差异，反映了区域发展模式和能源结构对减排效能的影响。研究结果能够为中国在碳中和目标下因地制宜优化能源转型路径提供参考。

关键词: 日本, 碳中和, 可再生能源, 碳强度, 减排