“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力的时空格局

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.12.2021906

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“一带一路”沿线国家是全球主要的人口集聚区和食物生产区，从热量、蛋白质和脂肪营养当量视角开展土地资源承载力研究，可为沿线地区改善食物供给状况提供参考。基于营养素转换模型和土地资源承载力模型，从全域到国别研究了沿线国家土地资源承载力的时空格局。结果表明：1995—2019年期间，（1）沿线国家蔬果和蛋奶类食物增幅超过或接近1倍，3种营养素供给量增幅均超过50%，但动物性食物蛋白质供给比例与发达国家仍有一定差距；（2）土地资源承载力增至50亿~60亿人区间水平，约80%国家土地资源承载力在提高，主要集中于东南亚、南亚地区，而中东欧部分国家可载人口有所下降；（3）沿线国家土地资源整体上转入盈余状态，约60%国家土地资源承载指数下降，50%国家人口超载，超过50%的国家热量和蛋白质供应不足。

关键词: 食物供给, 营养当量, 土地资源承载力, 时空格局, “一带一路”沿线国家

Abstract:

Countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) are the major population agglomeration areas and food production areas in the world. It is of great significance to study land resource carrying capacity from the perspectives of energy, protein and fat nutrition equivalence for promoting the improvement of regional dietary nutrition. Based on nutrient transformation model and land resources carrying capacity model, the spatial-temporal pattern of land resources carrying capacity of countries along the B&R from 1995 to 2019 was studied from the whole region and national scale. The results showed that, during the study period: (1) The growth rate of fruits, vegetables and egg milk food in B&R is more than or close to one time, and the growth rate of all three kinds of nutrients supply quantity is more than 50%, but there is still a certain gap between the supply ratio of animal food in protein and that in developed countries. (2) The carrying capacity of land resources has increased to the level of 5~6 billion people in B&R. The carrying capacity of 80% of countries was increasing, mainly located in Southeast Asia and South Asia. The carrying capacity of land resources of some countries in Central and Eastern Europe has declined. (3) Land resource carrying capacity pressure in B&R have turned into surplus overall, with about 60% countries slowing down, 50% countries overloaded with population, and over 50% countries lack of energy and protein.

Key words: food supply, nutrition equivalent unit, land resource carrying capacity, spatial - temporal pattern, countries along the Belt and Road

张超, 杨艳昭, 肖池伟, 刘莹, 宋欣哲. “一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力的时空格局[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(12): 54-66.

Chao ZHANG, Yanzhao YANG, Chiwei XIAO, Ying LIU, Xinzhe SONG. Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on nutritional requirement[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(12): 54-66.

图/表 11

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区域	国家名称	数量
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦	5
中蒙俄	中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯	3
东南亚	越南、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、文莱、菲律宾、缅甸、东帝汶	11
南亚	印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫	8
中东欧	波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、黑山、北马其顿、波黑、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦	19
西亚及中东	土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚、伊拉克、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、黎巴嫩、阿曼、也门、约旦、以色列、巴勒斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、埃及	19

区域	国家名称	数量
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦	5
中蒙俄	中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯	3
东南亚	越南、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、文莱、菲律宾、缅甸、东帝汶	11
南亚	印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫	8
中东欧	波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、黑山、北马其顿、波黑、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦	19
西亚及中东	土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚、伊拉克、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、黎巴嫩、阿曼、也门、约旦、以色列、巴勒斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、埃及	19

类型	限制度/承载状态	NUTCCI	LCCI
土地盈余	富富有余	≤0.5	＞1.20
土地盈余	盈余	0.5~0.875	1.05~1.20
人地平衡	平衡有余	0.875~1.0	1.00~1.05
人地平衡	临界超载	1.0~1.125	0.95~1.00
人口超载	超载	1.125~1.5	0.82~0.95
人口超载	严重超载	＞1.5	＜0.82

类型	限制度/承载状态	NUTCCI	LCCI
土地盈余	富富有余	≤0.5	＞1.20
土地盈余	盈余	0.5~0.875	1.05~1.20
人地平衡	平衡有余	0.875~1.0	1.00~1.05
人地平衡	临界超载	1.0~1.125	0.95~1.00
人口超载	超载	1.125~1.5	0.82~0.95
人口超载	严重超载	＞1.5	＜0.82

1995年	2019年	国家
热量超载	营养素充足	吉尔吉斯斯坦、拉脱维亚、中国
热量-脂肪超载		缅甸
营养素超载		老挝、越南
脂肪超载		克罗地亚
热量-蛋白质超载	热量超载	菲律宾、马来西亚
热量-脂肪超载		阿尔巴尼亚
营养素超载		塔吉克斯坦
营养素超载	脂肪超载	柬埔寨、尼泊尔
营养素超载	热量-脂肪超载	斯洛文尼亚、亚美尼亚、印度
营养素充足	热量-脂肪超载	叙利亚、阿塞拜疆、波黑
热量-蛋白质超载	营养素超载	黑山
营养素充足	营养素超载	不丹
/	/	除上述国家外的研究对象