俄乌冲突背景下世界能源贸易格局演变及能源安全评价研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.03.20240531

世界地理研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 37-53.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.03.20240531

• 地理学与区域国别研究专辑 • 上一篇下一篇

俄乌冲突背景下世界能源贸易格局演变及能源安全评价研究

庄星辉¹(), 王强¹(), 党牛¹, 周婷², 李一楠¹, 陈达荃¹, 张琦琦¹

^1.福建师范大学地理科学学院/碳中和未来技术学院，福州 350117
^2.中共福建省委党校生态文明教研部，福州 350108

收稿日期:2023-07-09 修回日期:2025-01-03 出版日期:2025-03-15 发布日期:2025-03-26
通讯作者: 王强
作者简介:庄星辉（1999—），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为能源地理，E-mail：qsx20211175@student.fjnu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42471191);福建省科学技术厅公益类竞争性项目(2023R1039);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJCZH006)

Evaluation of world energy security and the evolution of its pattern in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

Xinghui ZHUANG¹(), Qiang WANG¹(), Niu DANG¹, Ting ZHOU², Yinan LI¹, Daquan CHEN¹, Qiqi ZHANG¹

^1.College of Geographic Sciences/Carbon Neutral and Future Technology Institute, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350117, China
^2.Department of Ecological Civilization, Party School of Fujian Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China, Fuzhou 350108, China

Received:2023-07-09 Revised:2025-01-03 Online:2025-03-15 Published:2025-03-26
Contact: Qiang WANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在俄乌冲突的背景下，对世界能源贸易格局以及能源安全水平的时空演变特征进行分析，对新环境下中国能源安全的发展具有重要意义。基于2016—2022年各国的能源双边贸易及社会经济数据，建立世界能源贸易网络，从供应安全、使用安全和社会发展环境3个维度来建立能源安全评价指标，利用新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型模拟俄乌冲突未爆发情况下的世界能源安全格局；通过与实际情况相对比，探究俄乌冲突对世界能源安全的影响。研究发现：①整体来看，俄乌冲突爆发以来，世界能源网络的连通性有所弱化，国际能源贸易关系逐渐简化，世界能源贸易网络日趋集团化。能源贸易网络遭到随机性破坏的可能性升高，网络内部的稳定性下降，但面对针对性攻击的抵抗程度有所提高。世界能源贸易网络呈现以美国为强核心，其他国家均衡化发展的单中心“核心-边缘”结构。②俄罗斯能源出口受到较大影响，出口量大幅降低，出口格局出现了逐步向亚太地区转移的“东进”态势。以德国、芬兰和波兰为代表对俄罗斯发起制裁的国家对俄罗斯能源的依赖水平明显下降；以匈牙利、印度和中国为代表的加深与俄罗斯能源合作的国家，对俄罗斯能源的依赖水平有所提升。③在空间上，亚洲国家受俄乌冲突的负面影响较为明显；欧洲地区能源安全水平向好发展；非洲地区受自身经济发展条件的制约，仍是世界能源安全最危险的地区；北美洲、南美洲和大洋洲则因距离较远，受俄乌冲突的影响较小。④分维度来看，供应安全维度中的“一次能源生产与消费比”指标对能源安全的影响程度最深，使用安全维度各项指标的权重逐年增加，能源绿色转型对能源安全水平提升的重要性日益增加。

关键词: 俄乌冲突, 能源贸易, 能源安全, 时空演变

Abstract:

In light of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is critical for China to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution features of the global energy trade pattern and the level of energy security. Based on the energy bilateral trade and socio-economic data of each country from 2016 to 2022, this paper establishes the world energy trade network, and energy security evaluation indexes from three dimensions of security of supply, security of use and social development environment, and utilizes the metabolic GM(1,1) model to simulate the world energy security pattern under the situation of non-outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; and through the comparison of the actual situation, explore the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on world's energy security. The results shows: ① The world energy network has grown more consolidated since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, its connectivity has decreased over time. The energy trade network is more vulnerable to sporadic disruptions and less stable, but it is also more resilient against deliberate assaults. A monocentric "core-edge" structure, with the United States as the strong core and other nations developing in a balanced manner, characterizes the global energy trading network. ② Russia's energy exports have suffered tremendously; the export pattern gradually shows a "eastward" tendency toward the Asia-Pacific area. The degree of reliance on Russian energy has considerably dropped for Germany, Finland, and Poland as a result of the sanctions imposed on Russia; on the other hand, the level of reliance on Russian energy has increased for Hungary, India, and China as a result of the country's growing energy cooperation with Russia. ③ Asian countries are more obviously affected by the negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the danger has increased; the energy security level of the European region is developing positively; the African region, constrained by the conditions of its own economic development, is still the world's most dangerous region in terms of energy security; and North America, South America and Oceania, due to their long distance, are less affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. ④ Among the sub-dimensions, the "primary energy production-to-consumption ratio" indicator in the security of supply dimension has the greatest impact on energy security. The security of use dimension's indicator weights have been rising annually, meaning that the green transformation of energy sources is becoming more and more crucial for raising the level of energy security.

Key words: Russian-Ukrainian conflict, energy trade, energy security, time-space evolution

庄星辉, 王强, 党牛, 周婷, 李一楠, 陈达荃, 张琦琦. 俄乌冲突背景下世界能源贸易格局演变及能源安全评价研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(3): 37-53.

Xinghui ZHUANG, Qiang WANG, Niu DANG, Ting ZHOU, Yinan LI, Daquan CHEN, Qiqi ZHANG. Evaluation of world energy security and the evolution of its pattern in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(3): 37-53.

图/表 11

图 1 研究框架

Fig. 1 Research framework

表 1 能源安全指标

Tab. 1 Energy security indicators

维度层	度量层	指标层	单位	权重
				度量层	指标层
				度量层	2016	2018	2020	2022
能源供应安全维度	能源可利用性和可获得性	一次能源生产与消费比	—	0.40	0.31	0.31	0.29	0.31
		能源进口与消费比	—		0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
		能源供应多样性系数	—		0.07	0.07	0.10	0.08
能源使用安全维度	能源服务公平	人均电力消费量	kWh/人	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15
	能源消费环境与经济效应	可再生能源发电占比	%	0.25	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.15
		平均碳排放系数	t/t油当量		0.06	0.06	0.07	0.07
		能源强度	t油当量		0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03
社会发展环境维度	管理能力	人均GDP	美元	0.20	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.04
		政治稳定性	—		0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02
		管理水平	—		0.04	0.02	0.02	0.02
		政府效率	—		0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
		法治水平	—		0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04
		腐败控制	—		0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04

图 2 全球能源贸易网络的主要拓扑参数演变

Fig. 2 Evolution of the main topological parameters of global energy trade networks

图 3 全球能源贸易网络的平均度和度分布演变

Fig. 3 Evolution of the average degree and degree distribution of global energy trade networks

图 4 2016—2022年世界能源贸易格局的演变

Fig. 4 Evolution of world energy trade patterns， 2016-2022

图 5 俄罗斯能源贸易出度及出口量

Fig. 5 Russia's energy trade outflows and exports

图 7 2016—2022年各国对俄罗斯能源依赖度注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS（2016）1665号标准地图制作，底图边界无修改，下同。

Fig. 7 Russia energy dependence by country， 2016-2022

图 8 2016—2022年世界能源安全格局

Fig. 8 World energy security landscape， 2016-2022

表 2 2016—2022年各能源安全类型变化情况

Tab. 2 Changes in each energy security type, 2016-2022

能源安全类型	2016年	2018年	2020年	2022年冲突爆发后	2022年冲突爆发前	各类型阶段变化			2022年实际与预测差
能源安全类型	2016年	2018年	2020年	2022年冲突爆发后	2022年冲突爆发前	2016—2018	2018—2020	2020—2022	2022年实际与预测差
危险型	4	3	2	3	2	-1	-1	1	1
较危险型	10	10	12	12	12	0	2	0	0
一般安全型	11	14	12	11	13	3	-2	-1	-2
较安全型	16	13	14	14	11	-3	1	0	3
安全型	1	2	2	2	4	1	0	0	-2

图 9 2016—2022 年各大洲能源安全类型所占比

Fig. 9 Percentage of energy security types by continent， 2016-2022

图 10 2016—2022年能源安全各项指标权重变化

Fig. 10 Changes in the weighting of energy security indicators， 2016-2022

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俄乌冲突背景下世界能源贸易格局演变及能源安全评价研究

Evaluation of world energy security and the evolution of its pattern in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

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