Abstract:

This paper collects data such as network attention,we can calculate the promotion effect and regional differences of the "Belt and Road" initiative on countries along the national borders by constructing a trend line model, and use Pearson correlation test and multiple linear regression analysis to analyze the influencing factors of the "Belt and Road" on the tourism demand of countries along the route and on the tourism demand of countries along the provinces (cities and districts). The results show that: ① The "Belt and Road" initiative has promoted tourism demand in 27 countries, and the degree of impact varies greatly; Population, economic development level, resource abundance and spatial distance are all important factors that affect the promotion of tourism demand of countries along the Belt and Road. ②The "Belt and Road" initiative has promoted the tourism demand of countries in 30 provinces (cities and districts), but the degree of impact is different among provinces (cities and districts); Population, economic development level, education level, and per capita disposable income are important factors that affect the tourism demand of the countries along the Belt and Road for national outbound travel along the border.

Key words: "Belt and Road", outbound tourism, tourism demand, promotion effect, network attention

摘要：

收集网络关注度等数据，构建趋势线模型测算“一带一路”对我国国民出境沿线国家旅游需求的促进效应、空间差异及影响因素。结果发现：①“一带一路”共对27个国家旅游需求有促进作用，且各国家所受影响程度差异较大；人口、经济发展水平、资源丰度和空间距离是“一带一路”对沿线各国旅游需求促进作用空间差异的重要影响因素。②“一带一路”共对30个省域国民出境旅游需求有促进作用，且各省域所受影响程度不同；人口、经济发展水平、受教育程度和人均可支配收入是“一带一路”对各省域国民出境旅游需求促进作用空间差异的重要影响因素。

关键词: “一带一路”, 出境旅游, 旅游需求, 促进效应, 网络关注度