Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of domestic service industry development in China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.03.2021961

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the "tianyancha" network big data, we analysis the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of domestic service industry development in China by using the Theil index, spatial autocorrelation and geographic detector techniques. The results show that: (1)The domestic service industry development in China can be divided into four stages: incubation stage, growth stage, rising stage and prosperity stage.From 2000 to 2020, the regional difference of domestic service industry development has been shrinking and greater than the inter-regional differences, with the largest difference in the eastern region. (2)The development level of domestic service industry in China shows obvious spatial differentiation, the low, medium and high-level areas change greatly, but the trend of "east-middle-west" stepwise decline has not changed. Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong are always high-level areas. Tibet, Qinghai, Ningxia and Hainan are always low-level areas. At the same time, the spatial distribution of domestic service industry development is gathering day by day.(3)In 2000, economic and spatial factors were the main factors, and population factors were the auxiliary factors. While in 2020, economic, population and information factors were the main factors, and spatial factors and enterprises' own factors were the auxiliary factors. At the same time, the leading factors for the spatial differences in domestic service industry development in different regions are different.

Key words: domestic service industry, spatiotemporal evolution, influencing factors, geographic detector techniques, tianyancha, China

摘要：

基于“天眼查”网络大数据，采用泰尔指数、空间自相关及地理探测器等方法，分析中国家政服务业发展的时空演变特征及影响因素。结果表明：1）中国家政服务业发展经历了孕育、成长、兴起、繁荣四个阶段。2000—2020年，家政服务业发展区域差异不断缩小，区域内差异始终大于区域间差异，东部地区内差异最大。2）中国家政服务业发展空间分异明显，较低、中等、较高水平区变化较大，但东-中-西阶梯式递减态势始终未变，高水平区位于广东、江苏、山东等地，低水平区包括西藏、青海、宁夏、海南等地，家政服务业发展空间分布日趋集聚。3）影响家政服务业发展的核心因素由经济、空间因素为主，人口因素为辅转变为经济、人口、信息因素为主，空间、企业自身因素为辅。影响不同地区家政服务业发展的主导因素不尽相同。

关键词: 家政服务业, 时空演变, 影响因素, 地理探测器, 天眼查, 中国

Jiyao YAN, Yuan ZHAO, Xiaoyan XIONG, Xin XU. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of domestic service industry development in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(3): 161-174.

鄢继尧, 赵媛, 熊筱燕, 许昕. 中国家政服务业发展的时空演变特征及影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(3): 161-174.

Figures/Tables 7

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年份	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值
2000	－0.067 2	－0.263 5	2006	0.002 0	0.345 0	2012	0.135 7^**	1.400 7	2018	0.270 6^*	2.546 1
2001	－0.082 0	－0.423 9	2007	－0.129 2	－0.834 4	2013	0.137 0^*	1.381 1	2019	0.228 6^*	2.237 6
2002	－0.067 7	－0.316 4	2008	－0.038 3	－0.030 7	2014	0.242 3^*	2.371 5	2020	0.162 1^*	1.654 3
2003	－0.126 6	－0.819 6	2009	0.057 0	0.809 9	2015	0.239 4^*	2.316 7
2004	－0.099 3	－0.616 5	2010	0.062 9	0.777 1	2016	0.223 8^*	2.280 2
2005	－0.014 0	0.125 8	2011	0.108 0^**	1.002 6	2017	0.233 3^*	2.412 5

年份	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值
2000	－0.067 2	－0.263 5	2006	0.002 0	0.345 0	2012	0.135 7^**	1.400 7	2018	0.270 6^*	2.546 1
2001	－0.082 0	－0.423 9	2007	－0.129 2	－0.834 4	2013	0.137 0^*	1.381 1	2019	0.228 6^*	2.237 6
2002	－0.067 7	－0.316 4	2008	－0.038 3	－0.030 7	2014	0.242 3^*	2.371 5	2020	0.162 1^*	1.654 3
2003	－0.126 6	－0.819 6	2009	0.057 0	0.809 9	2015	0.239 4^*	2.316 7
2004	－0.099 3	－0.616 5	2010	0.062 9	0.777 1	2016	0.223 8^*	2.280 2
2005	－0.014 0	0.125 8	2011	0.108 0^**	1.002 6	2017	0.233 3^*	2.412 5

目标层	探测因素	代表性指标	2000年	2010年	2020年
经济因素	经济发展水平	地区生产总值	0.558 1^*	0.597 7^*	0.599 3^*
	购买力水平	社会消费品零售总额	0.475 2^*	0.611 4^*	0.635 1^*
	服务业发展水平	第三产业增加值	0.542 8^*	0.567 0^*	0.541 0^*
	服务业发展水平	第三产业就业人员数	0.416 5^*	0.699 1^*	0.524 8^*
人口因素	市场需求	常住人口数量	0.226 9^*	0.381 4^*	0.506 6^*
		城市人口数量	0.487 1^*	0.501 1^*	0.659 1^*
		少年儿童数量	0.216 4^*	0.222 2^*	0.483 3^*
		老年人口数量	0.226 3^*	0.446 3^*	0.533 9^*
空间因素	交通通达性	公路总里程	0.233 5^*	0.107 1^**	0.192 4^*
空间因素	土地利用	商业营业房销售面积	0.807 8^*	0.640 8^*	0.431 0^*
信息因素	信息化程度	互联网用户数	0.265 4^*	0.629 4^*	0.593 6^*
企业自身因素	规模化程度	新增企业中注册资本10万元及以上企业占比	0.097 2	0.164 8^**	0.184 8^**
	规模化程度	新增企业中注册资本100万元及以上企业占比	0.076 3	0.104 4^**	0.321 5^*
	规范化程度	新增企业中非个体工商户企业占比	0.100 1	0.245 8^*	0.271 4^*

目标层	探测因素	代表性指标	2000年	2010年	2020年
经济因素	经济发展水平	地区生产总值	0.558 1^*	0.597 7^*	0.599 3^*
	购买力水平	社会消费品零售总额	0.475 2^*	0.611 4^*	0.635 1^*
	服务业发展水平	第三产业增加值	0.542 8^*	0.567 0^*	0.541 0^*
	服务业发展水平	第三产业就业人员数	0.416 5^*	0.699 1^*	0.524 8^*
人口因素	市场需求	常住人口数量	0.226 9^*	0.381 4^*	0.506 6^*
		城市人口数量	0.487 1^*	0.501 1^*	0.659 1^*
		少年儿童数量	0.216 4^*	0.222 2^*	0.483 3^*
		老年人口数量	0.226 3^*	0.446 3^*	0.533 9^*
空间因素	交通通达性	公路总里程	0.233 5^*	0.107 1^**	0.192 4^*
空间因素	土地利用	商业营业房销售面积	0.807 8^*	0.640 8^*	0.431 0^*
信息因素	信息化程度	互联网用户数	0.265 4^*	0.629 4^*	0.593 6^*
企业自身因素	规模化程度	新增企业中注册资本10万元及以上企业占比	0.097 2	0.164 8^**	0.184 8^**
	规模化程度	新增企业中注册资本100万元及以上企业占比	0.076 3	0.104 4^**	0.321 5^*
	规范化程度	新增企业中非个体工商户企业占比	0.100 1	0.245 8^*	0.271 4^*

年份	经济因素	人口因素	空间因素	信息因素	企业自身因素
2000年	0.498 2	0.289 2	0.520 7	0.265 4	不显著
2010年	0.618 8	0.387 8	0.374 0	0.629 4	0.245 8
2020年	0.575 1	0.545 7	0.311 7	0.593 6	0.271 4