Study on the trade characteristics and influencing factors between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.01.20240423

Abstract

Abstract:

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a pivotal region for China in implementing the Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of bilateral trade patterns between China and the GCC from 2002 to 2021 using methods including the entropy method, trade intensity index, trade dependency index, a coupling coordination degree model, and geographical detector. The findings reveal that: (1) Regarding international trade capacity, GCC countries ranked as follows: Saudi Arabia > UAE > Qatar > Kuwait > Oman > Bahrain. (2) The overall trade linkage intensity between China and the GCC was relatively low and stable, with a marked increase observed in 2020. (3) GCC countries exhibited high dependency on the Chinese market. However, disparities in consumption scale resulted in a significantly imbalanced bilateral dependency relationship. (4) The UAE demonstrated the most balanced alignment between its international trade capacity and its bilateral trade dependency with China. (5) The primary factor influencing China-GCC import and export trade was the level of economic driving force, with interaction detection results primarily indicating "two-factor enhancement". In summary, deepening economic and trade cooperation with GCC countries is crucial for China's energy security and broader political-economic interests. China should prioritize fostering institutional platforms to facilitate further bilateral trade development.

Key words: China, the Gulf Cooperation Council, trade ability, trade pattern, trade intensity, geographic detector

摘要：

海湾合作委员会是中国在中东地区推进“一带一路”建设的关键贸易组织。研究综合运用熵值法，通过测算相关指数并结合贸易强度、贸易依赖度指数、耦合度模型及地理探测器，分析2002—2021年中海双边贸易格局的时空演变过程。研究结果表明：①海合会国家国际贸易能力排序为：沙特阿拉伯＞阿联酋＞卡塔尔＞科威特＞阿曼＞巴林；②中国与海合会国家整体贸易联系强度较低且相对平稳，2020年贸易联系强度水平出现显著跃升；③基于中海双方消费规模差异所产生的影响，海合会国家对中国市场的依赖度极高，双边依赖度存在明显的非均衡特征；④在海合会国家中，国际贸易能力与中海双边贸易依赖度匹配程度最高的国家为阿联酋；⑤影响中海进出口贸易的主要因素为经济驱动能力，交互探测结果主要表现为“双因子增强”。综上，深化与海合会国家的经贸合作，对保障中国能源安全、维护政治经济利益具有至关重要的意义，中国应积极推动双边贸易合作的制度化平台建设，促进双边贸易深入发展。

关键词: 中国, 海合会, 贸易能力, 贸易格局, 贸易强度, 地理探测器

Mingji LI, Jiahe NIU, Xiaohua HE, Xiaojuan LI. Study on the trade characteristics and influencing factors between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(1): 32-44.

李鸣骥, 牛家禾, 何晓华, 李晓娟. 中国与海合会国家贸易特征及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(1): 32-44.

Figures/Tables 10

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位	属性
国际贸易能力（ITA）	贸易稳定能力	石油产量占全球比重	%	+
		天然气产量占全球比重	%	+
		年通货膨胀率	%	－
	贸易出口能力	石油出口占GDP比重	%	+
		天然气出口占GDP比重	%	+
		其他自然资源出口占GDP比重	%	+
		贸易额占GDP比重	%	+
		对外贸易差额（现价美元）	亿美元	+
	贸易消费能力	国内总人口	百万人	+
		GDP（现价美元）	亿美元	+
		居民消费支出（现价美元）	亿美元	+

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位	属性
国际贸易能力（ITA）	贸易稳定能力	石油产量占全球比重	%	+
		天然气产量占全球比重	%	+
		年通货膨胀率	%	－
	贸易出口能力	石油出口占GDP比重	%	+
		天然气出口占GDP比重	%	+
		其他自然资源出口占GDP比重	%	+
		贸易额占GDP比重	%	+
		对外贸易差额（现价美元）	亿美元	+
	贸易消费能力	国内总人口	百万人	+
		GDP（现价美元）	亿美元	+
		居民消费支出（现价美元）	亿美元	+

类型	交互作用
q(X1∩X2)＜Min（q（X1），q（X2））	非线性减弱
Min（q（X1）），q（X2））＜q（X1∩X2）＜Max（q（X1），q（X2））	单因子非线性减弱
q（X1∩X2）＞Max（q（X1），q（X2））	双因子增强
q（X1∩X2）=q（X1）+q（X2）	独立
q（X1∩X2）＞q（X1）+（X2）	非线性增强

类型	交互作用
q(X1∩X2)＜Min（q（X1），q（X2））	非线性减弱
Min（q（X1）），q（X2））＜q（X1∩X2）＜Max（q（X1），q（X2））	单因子非线性减弱
q（X1∩X2）＞Max（q（X1），q（X2））	双因子增强
q（X1∩X2）=q（X1）+q（X2）	独立
q（X1∩X2）＞q（X1）+（X2）	非线性增强

影响因素	指标类型	代码	指标选取	单位
经济驱动	经济规模	X1	GDP总值	亿美元
经济驱动	市场规模	X2	人口数量	百万
基础设施驱动	港口质量	X3	港口基础设施质量	WEF
基础设施驱动	港口效率	X4	货柜码头吞吐量	吨
技术创新驱动	创新水平	X5	研发投入占比	%
技术创新驱动	创新水平	X6	高科技出口额	美元
能源驱动	能源产量	X7	石油产量	亿吨
	能源产量	X8	天然气产量	千兆英热单位
	能源利用水平	X9	一次能源消费量	千兆英热单位
空间距离	两国间地理距离	X10	两国首都间的距离	km