Abstract:

The paper analyses the scale distribution, scale structure and internal dynamic change characteristics of the natural gas resource flow system in China by using methods of "law of the primate city", "rank-size rule "and "Markoff shift matrix". The following conclusions are drawn: (1) China's natural gas flow system is developing step by step, no matter in terms of quantity or scale, it has increased significantly. (2) The rank-size distribution of natural gas flow system in China accords with the ZIF rule and has fractal properties. In terms of output system size distribution, it presents the trend of converting from the primacy distribution mode to the decentralized equilibrium mode, and then to the primacy distribution mode. In terms of input system size distribution, the overall performance is centralized distribution mode, and the natural gas flow scale is relatively developed in the middle rank provinces. In the output scale system, the development of no flow area and low flow scale area is not active. And it is difficult to achieve leaping development. The input scale system shows a trend towards a moderate scale. Overall, China's natural gas scale expansion is relatively stable. Therefore, it is proposed to strengthen the exploration of natural gas resources, broaden the production and import source of natural gas, and further strengthen the construction of the main natural gas pipeline network in China, and gradually build and perfect the coastal LNG receiving station and the pipeline network.

Key words: natural gas, resources flow, law of the primate city, rank-size rule, Marekove shift matrix, China

摘要：

采用首位律、位序-规模分布律和马尔科夫转换矩阵等方法，解析了中国天然气资源流动系统的规模分布、规模结构和系统内部动态变化特征，得出以下结论：（1） 中国天然气流动系统呈逐步发育态势，在流动省份数量和规模上都有显著增加和扩大；（2） 中国天然气流动系统的位序-规模分布符合齐夫法则，具有分形性质。在输流系统规模分布方面，呈现出首位型分布模式向分散均衡型模式转变，再向首位型分布模式发展的趋势。在汇流系统规模分布方面，总体表现为集中型分布模式，中间位次省份天然气流动规模比较发育；（3） 输流系统规模体系中，无流区、低流动规模地区发展不活跃，中低流动规模以上地区很难实现跨越式发展。汇流系统规模体系则表现出向中等规模集中的发展趋势。整体来看，中国天然气流动规模扩大的同时，不同类型之间的变动相对较为平稳。基于以上研究，提出加强天然气资源勘探，拓宽天然气生产和进口来源；加强中国天然气主干管网建设；逐步建设完善沿海LNG接收站与输送管网的政策建议。

关键词: 天然气, 资源流动, 首位律, 位序-规模法则, 马尔科夫转移矩阵, 中国