Abstract:

This article used social network analysis methods to explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the APEC trade network structure, the results shown that: 1)The APEC trade network has formed a "double center" trade pattern dominated by the central area of East Asia with China as the core and the central area of North America with the United States as the core. With the transfer of the centrality center and standard deviation ellipse of the trade network nodes from east to west, the trade status of East Asia and Southeast Asia is gradually increasing, while that of North America is declining; 2)China's centrality in the network has increased rapidly, and it surpassed the United States to become the first central economy in 2015, and the US's position in the network is relatively stable; 3)The APEC trade network has formed three associations in East Asia, the Americas and Southeast Asia. The strong absorption capacity of East Asian associations to Southeast Asian associations has led to the disintegration of Southeast Asian associations; 4)The circle structure of APEC trade network shows obvious characteristics of "core+sub-core+semi-periphery+edge", and the changes in the circle structure are more obvious. The United States has always been in the core circle, and China rose to the core circle in 2015. The results of QAP regression analysis show that the spatio-temporal evolution of APEC's trade network structure is mainly affected by factors such as economic scale, geographic distance, and trade freedom.

Key words: trade network structure, spatio-temporal evolution, influencing factors, APEC

摘要：

运用社会网络分析方法对APEC贸易网络结构时空演变进行探究，结果表明：①APEC贸易网络形成了以中国为核心的东亚中心区和美国为核心的北美中心区“双中心”贸易格局，并随着贸易网络节点中心度重心和标准差椭圆自东向西转移，东亚、东南亚地区的贸易地位逐步提升，北美地区则在下降；②中国在网络中的中心度快速提升，并在2015年超越美国成为首位中心度经济体，美国在网络中的地位较为稳定；③APEC贸易网络形成了东亚、美洲和东南亚三个社团，东亚社团对东南亚社团的吸纳能力较强，使得东南亚社团呈现瓦解趋势；④APEC贸易网络圈层结构呈现出明显的“核心+次核心+半边缘+边缘”特征，且圈层结构变化较为明显，美国始终处于核心圈层，中国在2015年上升至核心圈层。QAP回归分析结果显示，APEC贸易网络结构时空演变主要受经济规模、地理距离、贸易自由度等因素的综合作用。

关键词: 贸易网络结构, 时空演变, 影响因素, 亚太经合组织（APEC）