Abstract:

The Arctic Passage connects the most strategic and economically developed regions in the world, and its opening is of great strategic significance. The geodetic region of Arctic Passage can be considered from three dimensions: Arctic region, in-flight buffer, and route extension area. Based on the geodetic influence region of the Arctic Passage, this paper summarizes the globalization and grouping characteristics of the geopolitical pattern of the Arctic Passage. Based on the combination of distance and shipping income, this paper explores the combination of political actors based on countries, and puts forward the stereoscopic circle layer structure of the geopolitical pattern of the Arctic Passage: A five-tier structure inside out with different interests and positions centered on the Arctic Ocean. On the basis of the analysis of the shipping interests, propositions and policy systems of each circle structure, the relationship between the internal and external cooperation and competition among the circles is discussed. The analysis shows how to balance the inner-most Arctic Passage Coastal States' claims of "Internal hydration" and the institutionalized jurisdiction with the freedom of navigation in other circles will be the focus of future games, the competition and cooperation among and within the circles will gradually change with the change of resources and interests and the promotion of the process.

Key words: Arctic Passage, geopolitics, pattern, layer structure, competition coopetition relationship

摘要：

北极航道的开通具有重大的地缘战略意义。北极航道地缘区域可从北极地区、航线影响范围内缓冲区、航线延伸区域三个维度考虑。本文以北极航道地缘影响区域作为空间依托，总结北极航道地缘政治格局的全球化和集团化特征，并以地缘距离和航运收益组合为依据，探索以国家为单位的政治行为体组合方式，提出北极航道地缘政治格局的立体式圈层结构：以北冰洋为中心的不同利益不同立场的由内向外依次排列的五层结构。根据对各圈层结构的航运利益、观念主张和政策制度分析，探讨各圈层内外部竞合关系，提出最内层的北极航道沿海国“内水化”主张和制度化管辖与其他圈层的“航行自由”如何平衡将是未来博弈的焦点，各圈层间和内部的竞合关系也将随资源、利益的诉求变化和进程的推动而变化。

关键词: 北极航道, 地缘政治, 格局, 圈层结构, 竞合关系