Spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors of population aging in China from 2000 to 2020

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.05.20220367

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the data of three population censuses in 2000, 2010 and 2020, the spatio-temporal pattern, regional differences and influencing factors of population aging in cities at and above the prefecture level in China are analyzed by using exponential growth and Tobit Regression Model. The results show that:①The spatial distribution of population aging in China is clearly divided by the "Hu line", and the degree of aging in the northwest half of the "Hu line" is significantly lower than that in the southeast half; ②The young type and adult type areas continue to decrease, and the elderly type area shows a large spatial expansion. Among them, the "core periphery" distribution characteristics of the elderly type Ⅱ are obvious, and the elderly type Ⅲ presents a near L-shaped structure; ③There are significant spatial differences in the speed of aging. From 2000 to 2010, the rapid aging areas were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Heilongjiang, Sichuan and other provinces, while from 2010 to 2020, they were mainly distributed in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other provinces; ④ In the past 20 years, the aging degree of resource-based cities and provincial capital cities is gradually higher than that of non-resource-based and non-provincial capital cities; ⑤The age structure of the population in the base period is the dominant factor affecting population aging. Economic factors have a two-way impact on population aging. Topographic relief, net migration rate, natural growth rate and other factors are negatively correlated with the aging rate.

Key words: population aging, urban scale, spatiotemporal differentiation, China

摘要：

基于2000、2010和2020年三次人口普查数据，应用指数增长和Tobit回归模型分析2000—2020年中国地级及以上行政区人口老龄化时空格局、区域差异以及影响因素，结果表明：①中国人口老龄化空间分布以“胡焕庸线”为明显分界，“胡焕庸线”西北半壁老龄化程度显著低于东南半壁；②年轻型、成年型区域不断减少，老年型区域呈现大幅度空间扩张，其中老年型Ⅱ期“核心-外围”分布特征明显，老年型Ⅲ期呈现近“L”形结构；③老龄化速度空间差异特征显著，2000—2010年快速老龄化区域主要分布于新疆、内蒙古、甘肃、黑龙江、四川等省份，2010—2020年则主要分布于黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、甘肃、内蒙古等省份；④20年间，资源型城市、省会城市老龄化率逐渐高于非资源型、非省会城市；⑤基期人口年龄结构是影响人口老龄化的主导性因素，经济因素对人口老龄化有双向影响，地形起伏度、净迁移率、自然增长率等因素与老龄化率负相关。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 城市尺度, 时空分异, 中国

Linguo WU, Rongwei WU, Degang YANG. Spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors of population aging in China from 2000 to 2020[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(5): 163-176.

邬林果, 武荣伟, 杨德刚. 2000—2020年中国人口老龄化时空演变及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(5): 163-176.

Figures/Tables 7

References 41

1	马晓帆,张海峰,高子轶,等.西宁市老年人口分布与养老资源错位研究.世界地理研究,2021,30(1): 213-222.
	MA X, ZHANG H, GAO Z,et al. Study on spatial differentiation of population aging and mismatch of endowment resources in Xining City. World Regional Studies,2021,30(1):213-222.
2	张航空.人口流动对中国不同省份人口老龄化的影响.人口学刊,2015,37(1):95-102.
	ZHANG H. The influence of population floating on the region aging of China. Population Journal,2015,37(1):95-102.
3	王志宝,孙铁山,李国平.近20年来中国人口老龄化的区域差异及其演化.人口研究,2013,37(1):66-77.
	WANG Z, SUN T, LI G. Regional differences and evolution of population aging in China. Population Research,2013,37(1):66-77.
4	杨菊华,王苏苏,刘轶锋.新中国70年:人口老龄化发展趋势分析.中国人口科学,2019(4):30-42.
	YANG J, WANG S, LIU Y.70 years of China: Analysis on the trend of population aging. Chinese Journal of Population Science,2019(4):30-42.
5	周榕,庄汝龙,黄晨熹.中国人口老龄化格局演变与形成机制.地理学报,2019,74(10):2163-2177.
	ZHOU R, ZHUANG R, HUANG C. Pattern evolution and formative mechanism of aging in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,2019,74(10):2163-2177.
6	于涛方.中国城市老龄化空间特征及相关因素分析——基于"五普"和"六普"人口数据的分析.城市规划学刊,2013(6):58-66.
	YU T. China's aging population and its spatial features in city areas (2000-2010). Urban Planning Forum,2013(6):58-66.
7	陈蓉,王美凤.经济发展不平衡、人口迁移与人口老龄化区域差异——基于全国287个地级市的研究.人口学刊,2018,40(3): 71-81.
	CHEN R, WANG M. Unbalanced economic development,migration and regional differences of ageing: An empirical study with data of 287 cities in China. Population Journal,2018,40(3):71-81.
8	王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异.地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.
	WANG L, WU R, LIU H,et al. Spatial patterns and regional differences of population ageing in China based on the county scale. Progress in Geography,2016,35(8):921-931.
9	张开洲,陈楠.1990—2010年福建省县域人口老龄化时空演变特征及其驱动机制.地理科学进展,2014, 33(5):605-615.
	ZHANG K, CHEN N. Characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution in population aging and driving mechanism at. Progress in Geography,2014,33(5):605-615.
10	周春山,童新梅,王珏晗,等.2000—2010年广州市人口老龄化空间分异及形成机制.地理研究,2018,37(1):103-118.
	ZHOU C, TONG X, WANG J,et al. Spatial differentiation and the formation mechanism of population aging in Guangzhou in 2000-2010.Geographical Research,2018,37(1):103-118.
11	高晓路,吴丹贤,许泽宁,等.中国老龄化地理学综述和研究框架构建.地理科学进展,2015,34(12): 1480-1494.
	GAO X, WU D, XU Z.A review and frame-work setting of geographical research on aging in China. Progress in Geography,2015,34(12):1480-1494.
12	曲海波.中国人口老龄化的人口学原因.人口研究,1989(4):8-16.
	QU H. Zhongguo renkou laolinghua de renkouxue yuanyin. Population Research,1989(4):8-16.
13	原新,刘士杰.1982 —2007年我国人口老龄化原因的人口学因素分解.学海,2009(4):140-145.
	YUAN X, LIU S.A demographic decomposition of the causes of population aging in China:1982-2007. Academia Bimestris,2009(4):140-142.
14	赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究.人口研究,2012,36(2):71-81.
	ZHAO R, LIU C, ZHANG F. Spatial econometric research on regional spillover and distribution difference of population aging in China. Population Research,2012,36(2):71-81.
15	陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用.北京: 高等教育出版社,2010.
	CHEN Q. Advanced Econometrics and Stata Applications. Beijing Higher Education Press,2010.
16	ATKINS M T. "On the move, or staying put?" An analysis of intrametropolitan residential mobility and ageing in place. Population, Space and Place,2018,24(2):e2096.
17	林琳,马飞.广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势.地理研究,2007(05):1043-1054.
	LIN L, MA F. Spatial distribution and trends of the aging of population in Guangzhou. Geographical Research,2007,26(5):1043-1054.
18	郑度,赵东升.青藏高原的自然环境特征.科技导报,2017,35(6):13-22.
	ZHENG D, ZHAO D. Characteristics of natural environment of the Tibetan Plateau. Science & Technology Review,2017,35(6):13-22.
19	张子威,黄秋昊,陆羽,等.中国居民预期寿命及其影响因素的空间差异分析.地球信息科学学报,2021,23(9):1575-1585.
	ZHANG Z, HUANG Q, LU Y,et al. Analysis on the spatial difference of Chinese residents' life expectancy and its influencing factors. Journal of Geo-Information Science,2021,23(9):1575- 1585.
20	赵雪雁,王晓琪,刘江华,等.基于不同尺度的中国优质医疗资源区域差异研究.经济地理,2020,40(7):22-31.
	ZHAO X, WANG X, LIU J. Regional differences of quality medical resources in China based on different scales. Economic Geography,2020,40(7):22-31.
21	许昕,赵媛,张新林,等.江苏省人口老龄化空间分异演变及影响因素.地理科学,2017,37(12):1859-1866.
	XU X, ZHAO Y, ZHANG X,et al. Spatial variation of population aging and associated factors in Jiangsu Province. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(12):1859-1866.
22	南通市统计局.南通市人口流动现状分析.(2022-03-06)[2022-08-19]. .
	Nantong Statistics Department. Analysis on the Present Situation of Population Flow in Nantong.(2022-03-06)[2022-08-19]..
23	鲍曙明,时安卿,侯维忠.中国人口迁移的空间形态变化分析.中国人口科学,2005(5):28-36.
	BAO S, SHI A, HOU W. Analysis of the changing spatial patterns of migration in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science,2005(5):28-36.
24	刘涛,彭荣熙,卓云霞,等.2000—2020年中国人口分布格局演变及影响因素.地理学报,2022,77(2):381-394.
	LIU T, PENG R, ZHUO Y,et al. China's changing population distribution and influencing factors: Insights from the 2020 census data. Acta Geographica Sinica,2022,77(2):381-394.
25	宋丽敏,张铭志.东北地区人口流动、居留及落户意愿的影响因素分析.人口与发展,2022,28(1):151-160.
	SONG L, ZHANG M. Analysis of the influencing factors of population mobility decision--Making,willingness to stay and willingness to settle in Northeast China. Chinese Population & Development,2022,28(1):151-160.
26	王巍,路春艳,王英哲.黑龙江省资源型城市人口流失问题与对策.中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(S2):63-66.
	WANG W, LU C, WANG Y. Problems countermeasures of population loss in resource-based cities in Heilongjiang. China Population,Resources and Environment,2018,28(S2): 63-66.
27	武前波,惠聪聪.新时期我国中心城市人口城镇化特征及其空间格局.世界地理研究,2020,29(3):523-535.
	WU Q, HUI C. Urbanization characteristics and spatial pattern of population in central cities of China in the 21st century. World Regional Studies,2020,29(3): 523-535.
28	王录仓,武荣伟,李巍.中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局.地理学报,2017,72(6):1001-1016.
	WANG L, WU R, LI W. Spatial-temporal patterns of population aging on China's urban agglomerations .Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(6):1001-1016.
29	赵东霞,韩增林,王利.中国老年人口分布的集疏格局及其形成机制.地理学报,2017,72(10):1762-1775.
	ZHAO D, HAN Z, WANG L. The spatial pattern of aging population distribution and its generating mechanism in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(10):1762-1775.
30	周福林.我国城乡居民分年龄、性别和受教育程度的生育意愿研究.西北人口,2005(4):12-14.
	ZHOU F. Study on Chinese people's fertility desires by age and gender. Northwest Population Journal,2005(4):12-14.
31	许昕,赵媛,张新林,等.中国县域高龄人口地域分异特征及环境成因.地理科学,2018,38(9):1449-1457.
	XU X, ZHAO Y, ZHANG X,et al. Regional differentiation characteristics and environmental causes of elderly population in China based on county scale. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(9):1449-1457.
32	刘华军,何礼伟,杨骞.中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进: 1989—2011.人口研究,2014,38(2): 71-82.
	LIU H, HE L, YANG Q. Spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of population ageing in China,1989-2011.Population Research,2014,38(2):71-82.
33	梅林,郭艳花,陈妍.吉林省人口老龄化时空分异特征及成因.地理科学进展,2018,37(3):352-362.
	MEI L, GUO Y, CHEN Y. Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Jilin Province. Progress in Geography,2018,37(3):352-362.
34	白永平,周鹏,武荣伟,等.中国地级及以上城市人口流动对城镇化效应分析.干旱区资源与环境,2016, 30(9):78-84.
	BAI Y, ZHOU P, WU R,et al. The floating population and its effects on urbanization in cities above prefecture level in China. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(9):78-84.
35	黄成凤,汤小波,杨燕绥.城乡居民人均可支配收入对医疗保健支出影响及区域差异分析.卫生软科学,2017,31(12):23-27.
	HUANG C, TANG X, YANG Y. Analysis on the impact of urban and rural residents per capita disposable income to health care expenditure and regional difference. Soft Science of Health,2017,31(12):23-27.
36	刘晔,王若宇,薛德升,等.中国高技能劳动力与一般劳动力的空间分布格局及其影响因素.地理研究,2019,38(8):1949-1964.
	LIU Y, WANG R, XUE D,et al. The spatial pattern and determinants of skilled laborers and less- skilled laborers in China: Evidence from 2000 and 2010 censuses. Geographical Research,2019,38(8):1949- 1964.
37	王智勇.基础教育与人口集聚——基于地级市面板数据的分析.人口与发展,2017,23(6):14-25.
	WANG Z. Primary education and population agglomeration: A study based on prefectural panel data. Population and Development,2017,23(6):14-25.
38	邹湘江,吴丹.人口流动对农村人口老龄化的影响研究——基于"五普"和"六普"数据分析.人口学刊,2013,35(4):70-79.
	ZOU X, WU D. Floating population impact on rural aging. Population Journal,2013,35(4):70-79.
39	宋健,阿里米热·阿里木.育龄女性生育意愿与行为的偏离及家庭生育支持的作用.人口研究,2021, 45(4):18-35.
	SONG J, ALIMIRE A. Deviation between fertility desire and fertility behavior in China and the effect of family support. Population Research,2021,45(4):18-35.
40	林宝.积极应对人口老龄化:内涵、目标和任务.中国人口科学,2021(3):42-55.
	LIN B. Actively addressing population ageing: Connotation, targets and tasks. Chinese Journal of Population Science,2021(3):42-55.
41	蔺雪芹,王岱,王女英,等.北京市老年人口空间分布格局特征及驱动力.地域研究与开发,2016,35(3):158-164.
	LIN X, WANG D, WANG N,et al. Spatial patterns characteristics and driving forces of elderly population distribution in Beijing City. Areal Research and Development,2016,35(3):158-164.

年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重/%	老龄人口/万	老龄化率/%
2000	资源型	38 358.49	30.85	2 561.87	6.68
2000	非资源型	85 986.29	69.15	6 370.45	7.29
2010	资源型	39 462.19	29.59	3 497.44	8.86
2010	非资源型	93 912.13	70.41	8 402.10	8.95
2020	资源型	38 499.39	27.31	5 406.46	14.04
2020	非资源型	102 472.37	72.69	13 657.74	13.33

年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重/%	老龄人口/万	老龄化率/%
2000	资源型	38 358.49	30.85	2 561.87	6.68
2000	非资源型	85 986.29	69.15	6 370.45	7.29
2010	资源型	39 462.19	29.59	3 497.44	8.86
2010	非资源型	93 912.13	70.41	8 402.10	8.95
2020	资源型	38 499.39	27.31	5 406.46	14.04
2020	非资源型	102 472.37	72.69	13 657.74	13.33

年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重%	老龄人口/万	老龄化率/%
2000	省会	22 377.13	18.00	1 707.81	7.63
2000	非省会	101 967.64	82.00	7 124.51	6.99
2010	省会	26 628.13	19.96	2 387.73	8.97
2010	非省会	106 746.20	80.04	9 511.81	8.91
2020	省会	32 339.86	22.94	4 126.52	12.76
2020	非省会	108 631.90	77.06	14 937.68	13.75

年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重%	老龄人口/万	老龄化率/%
2000	省会	22 377.13	18.00	1 707.81	7.63
2000	非省会	101 967.64	82.00	7 124.51	6.99
2010	省会	26 628.13	19.96	2 387.73	8.97
2010	非省会	106 746.20	80.04	9 511.81	8.91
2020	省会	32 339.86	22.94	4 126.52	12.76
2020	非省会	108 631.90	77.06	14 937.68	13.75

变量类型		指标名称（符号）	指标说明	数据来源
被解释变量		老龄化率（AGPOP）	65岁及以上人口比例	中国人口普查分县资料
解释变量	人口因素	净迁移率（MI）	净迁移人数/户籍人口总数	城市统计年鉴
		自然增长率（NGR）	自然增长人口/年平均人口	城市统计年鉴
		55~65岁人口占总人口比例（APA）	前一时期55~65岁人口/总人口	中国人口普查分县资料
	自然环境因素	地形起伏度（RDLS）	最高海拔与最低海拔的差值与地表切割深度的综合表现	采用窗口分析等方法提取栅格尺度的地形起伏度
	经济因素	人均GDP（PGDP）	人均国内生产总值	城市统计年鉴
	经济因素	城镇居民人均可支配收入（UDPI）	各地级市城镇居民人均可支配收入	各省统计年鉴
	社会因素	平均受教育年限（EDU）	15岁及以上人口的平均受教育年限	中国人口普查分县资料