Abstract:

High-quality population development (HPD) support Chinese-style modernization. This study constructs an index system for HPD in four dimensions: quality, quantity, structure and distribution, analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of HPD from 2000 to 2020 in Guangdong based on different spatial scales. Based on the town-level counties, it analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of high-quality population development in the whole province from 2000 to 2020, and discusses the obstacles and main influencing factors of high-quality population development in different periods by using obstacle factor diagnosis and model space panel regression analysis. The results show that: ① There are differences in the score change process of different dimensions of HPD; specifically, the "quality" and the "structure" dimensions kept growing, the "quantity" dimension increased first and decreased recently, while the " distribution" dimension continued to decline; ② The HPD has significant regional heterogeneity, and the average score and growth rate of high-quality development of population in the Pearl River Delta region is much higher than that in the eastern and western regions of Guangdong, showing a "core-periphery" spatial distribution pattern; ③ The main factors influencing HPD are diversified, which are affected by the changes in the level of economic development and the structure of the industry, and by the effects of the local financial revenues and the medical service supply, as well as changes in air quality. The conduct of this study is of great theoretical and practical significance for the in-depth understanding of the scientific connotation of HPD and the improvement of the population development strategy in the new era.

Key words: high-quality population development, population shrinkage, spatio-temporal differentiation, influencing factors, Guangdong

摘要：

人口是现代化建设最基本的支撑。人口发展是关系中华民族伟大复兴的大事，必须着力提高人口整体素质，以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化。本研究从素质优良、总量充裕、结构优化和分布合理4个维度构建了人口高质量发展的评价指标体系，分析2000—2020年广东省县域人口高质量发展的时空演化特征，并使用多尺度地理加权回归模型，诊断影响因素的尺度效应及空间异质性。研究发现：①人口高质量发展不同维度的得分变化过程存在差异，即“素质优良”和“结构优化”维度保持稳步增长趋势，“总量充裕”维度呈现先增后减的趋势，而“分布合理”维度则持续下滑。②人口高质量发展具有显著的区域异质性，珠三角地区人口高质量发展的得分和增速均远高于粤东西北地区，呈现以珠三角为中心、粤东西北为外围的空间分布格局。③影响县域人口高质量发展的主要因素是多元的，包括经济发展水平、产业结构、地方财政支出、医疗卫生公共服务供给以及空气质量变化等。本研究对于深入理解人口高质量发展的科学内涵、完善新时代人口发展战略具有重大的理论和实践意义。

关键词: 人口高质量发展, 人口收缩, 时空分异, 影响因素, 广东