Abstract:

The impact of cyber-attack on national cyberspace security has gradually increased. This paper uses cyberspace analysis methods to conduct an in-depth study of global cyber-attack in 2022 to reveal their spatial pattern and connection characteristics. The results show that: ① In terms of geographical distribution， cyber-attacks show a full geographical coverage， mainly originating from North America and Western Europe， and the main targets are also in these regions. The US， Canada， the UK， Ireland， the Netherlands， France， etc. are the main source areas of attacks. Vulnerable target areas include the UK， Germany， France， the Netherlands， the US， Canada， Brazil， Japan， China， Singapore and the British Virgin Islands. ② In terms of attack types and main sources， website phishing attacks are mainly from the US， the UK， and Germany， and the US is the primary source and target of attacks. Malware attacks mainly come from the UK， the US， and Germany， with the US being the primary attack source. Malicious control attacks mainly come from the US， the UK， and Singapore， with the US being the primary attack source and target. ③ In terms of attack trends， the GMM estimation results show that cyber-attack are persistent and trend-based, and past attacks have a significant positive impact on future attacks, showing a cyclic cumulative effect. National technological innovation is negatively correlated with the intensity of cyber-attack, indicating that the improvement of technological innovation may introduce more complex and unpredictable means of cyber-attack, thereby leading to an increase in the intensity of cyber-attack.

Key words: cyber-attack, network analysis, spatial distribution, influencing factors

摘要：

随着网络空间对全球经济和国家安全的影响深入，网络攻击等非传统安全威胁手段对国家网络空间安全的影响逐渐显现。本文运用网络空间分析方法，对2022年全球网络攻击进行了深入研究，并揭示其空间格局和联系特征。通过建立网络模型，运用度、平均路径长度、网络密度等方法构建计量模型，对网络攻击的地理空间分布特征进行分析。结果表明：①在地理分布上，网络攻击呈现“从西向东、从北到南”的地理分布，美国、加拿大、英国、爱尔兰、荷兰、法国等是主要的攻击来源区域。易受攻击的目标区域包括英国、德国、法国、荷兰、美国、加拿大、巴西、日本、中国、新加坡及英属维尔京群岛。②在攻击类型和主要来源上，网站钓鱼攻击以美国、英国、德国为主要攻击源，美国是首要攻击来源和目标；恶意软件攻击主要源自英国、美国、德国，美国是首要攻击源；恶意控制攻击以美国、英国、新加坡为主要攻击源，美国是首要攻击来源和目标。③网络攻击具有持续性和趋势性，过去的攻击情况对未来攻击有显著的正向影响，呈现循环累积效应。国家技术创新与网络攻击强度呈负相关，表明技术创新的提升可能引入更复杂和难以预测的网络攻击手段，从而导致网络攻击强度的提升。

关键词: 网络攻击, 网络分析, 空间分布, 影响因素