

World Regional Studies ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (7): 150-165.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.07.20250183
Yuanqin LIANG1(
), Weihua YIN1,2(
), Jiawen KUANG1
Received:2025-03-19
Revised:2025-07-29
Online:2026-07-15
Published:2026-07-24
Contact:
Weihua YIN
通讯作者:
殷为华
作者简介:梁圆卿(2000—),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为经济地理与区域经济韧性,E-mail:m19921873620@163.com。
基金资助:Yuanqin LIANG, Weihua YIN, Jiawen KUANG. Spatial distribution characteristics of National Agricultural Science and Technology Parks and their impact on rural residents' income increase in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(7): 150-165.
梁圆卿, 殷为华, 匡佳文. 国家农业科技园区的空间分布特征及对农村居民增收的影响[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(7): 150-165.
| 变量类型 | 变量符号 | 变量含义 | 赋值方式 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 被解释变量 | income | 农村居民收入水平 | 农村居民可支配收入/元 |
| 核心解释变量 | did | 国家农业科技园区设立 | 若某城市在当年设立国家农业科技园区,则当年及以后年份赋值为 1;否则,赋值为 0 |
| 控制变量 | gdp | 经济发展水平 | 人均GDP/元 |
| ind | 产业结构 | 二、三产业增加值占比/% | |
| gov | 政府支持力度 | 地方财政一般预算内支出的 GDP 占比/% | |
| edu | 基础教育水平 | 中小学在校人数占总人口的比/% | |
| trans | 交通通达度 | 人均道路面积/m2 | |
| inform | 数字化水平 | 互联网宽带接入用户数/户 | |
| 机制变量 | sca | 农业规模扩张 | 人均农林牧渔业产值/元 |
| entre | 农村创业活动 | 农林牧渔业初创企业数量/家 | |
| moder | 农业技术进步 | 地区农业机械总动力/万千瓦 |
Tab.1 Variable meaning and assignment
| 变量类型 | 变量符号 | 变量含义 | 赋值方式 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 被解释变量 | income | 农村居民收入水平 | 农村居民可支配收入/元 |
| 核心解释变量 | did | 国家农业科技园区设立 | 若某城市在当年设立国家农业科技园区,则当年及以后年份赋值为 1;否则,赋值为 0 |
| 控制变量 | gdp | 经济发展水平 | 人均GDP/元 |
| ind | 产业结构 | 二、三产业增加值占比/% | |
| gov | 政府支持力度 | 地方财政一般预算内支出的 GDP 占比/% | |
| edu | 基础教育水平 | 中小学在校人数占总人口的比/% | |
| trans | 交通通达度 | 人均道路面积/m2 | |
| inform | 数字化水平 | 互联网宽带接入用户数/户 | |
| 机制变量 | sca | 农业规模扩张 | 人均农林牧渔业产值/元 |
| entre | 农村创业活动 | 农林牧渔业初创企业数量/家 | |
| moder | 农业技术进步 | 地区农业机械总动力/万千瓦 |
| 年份 | 全国 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 9.10 | 6.82 | 11.99 | 9.81 | 11.72 |
| 2007 | 14.46 | 13.52 | 15.30 | 15.22 | 14.65 |
| 2008 | 14.00 | 10.28 | 15.76 | 16.03 | 19.56 |
| 2009 | 10.03 | 9.41 | 9.43 | 11.00 | 11.48 |
| 2010 | 15.39 | 14.44 | 14.90 | 15.05 | 19.94 |
| 2011 | 18.12 | 16.94 | 18.24 | 19.15 | 19.67 |
| 2012 | 13.80 | 13.28 | 15.01 | 15.45 | 10.29 |
| 2013 | 13.40 | 13.42 | 14.57 | 12.67 | 12.48 |
| 2014 | 10.29 | 8.36 | 16.02 | 12.92 | 0.30 |
| 2015 | 8.50 | 6.91 | 8.51 | 11.89 | 6.75 |
| 2016 | 8.70 | 8.94 | 8.16 | 9.67 | 7.07 |
| 2017 | 8.69 | 8.82 | 8.78 | 9.15 | 7.08 |
| 2018 | 8.73 | 8.93 | 9.07 | 8.61 | 7.57 |
| 2019 | 9.40 | 9.47 | 9.16 | 9.67 | 9.15 |
| 2020 | 7.14 | 6.54 | 6.48 | 8.33 | 8.10 |
| 2021 | 10.76 | 10.66 | 11.20 | 10.60 | 10.38 |
| 平均 | 11.28 | 10.42 | 12.04 | 12.20 | 11.01 |
Tab.2 The annual growth rate of rural residents’ income in China from 2006 to 2021 by region
| 年份 | 全国 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 9.10 | 6.82 | 11.99 | 9.81 | 11.72 |
| 2007 | 14.46 | 13.52 | 15.30 | 15.22 | 14.65 |
| 2008 | 14.00 | 10.28 | 15.76 | 16.03 | 19.56 |
| 2009 | 10.03 | 9.41 | 9.43 | 11.00 | 11.48 |
| 2010 | 15.39 | 14.44 | 14.90 | 15.05 | 19.94 |
| 2011 | 18.12 | 16.94 | 18.24 | 19.15 | 19.67 |
| 2012 | 13.80 | 13.28 | 15.01 | 15.45 | 10.29 |
| 2013 | 13.40 | 13.42 | 14.57 | 12.67 | 12.48 |
| 2014 | 10.29 | 8.36 | 16.02 | 12.92 | 0.30 |
| 2015 | 8.50 | 6.91 | 8.51 | 11.89 | 6.75 |
| 2016 | 8.70 | 8.94 | 8.16 | 9.67 | 7.07 |
| 2017 | 8.69 | 8.82 | 8.78 | 9.15 | 7.08 |
| 2018 | 8.73 | 8.93 | 9.07 | 8.61 | 7.57 |
| 2019 | 9.40 | 9.47 | 9.16 | 9.67 | 9.15 |
| 2020 | 7.14 | 6.54 | 6.48 | 8.33 | 8.10 |
| 2021 | 10.76 | 10.66 | 11.20 | 10.60 | 10.38 |
| 平均 | 11.28 | 10.42 | 12.04 | 12.20 | 11.01 |
| 变量 | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| did | 0.530 4***(34.52) | 0.226 6***(16.74) | 0.036 1***(6.85) | 0.034 7***(6.66) |
| 控制变量 | 否 | 是 | 否 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 否 | 否 | 是 | 是 |
| 城市固定效应 | 否 | 否 | 是 | 是 |
| 样本量 | 4 480 | 4 480 | 4 480 | 4 480 |
| R2 | 0.201 2 | 0.516 1 | 0.972 5 | 0.973 4 |
Tab.3 Benchmark regression results
| 变量 | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| did | 0.530 4***(34.52) | 0.226 6***(16.74) | 0.036 1***(6.85) | 0.034 7***(6.66) |
| 控制变量 | 否 | 是 | 否 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 否 | 否 | 是 | 是 |
| 城市固定效应 | 否 | 否 | 是 | 是 |
| 样本量 | 4 480 | 4 480 | 4 480 | 4 480 |
| R2 | 0.201 2 | 0.516 1 | 0.972 5 | 0.973 4 |
| 变量 | 核密度匹配 | 近邻匹配 | 卡尺内近邻匹配 | 变更样本城市 | 排除极端值影响 | 被解释变量滞后1期 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| did | 0.035 9*** (6.88) | 0.036 0*** (5.31) | 0.035 9*** (5.30) | 0.035 9*** (6.59) | 0.043 4*** (7.22) | 0.034 1*** (6.70) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 城市固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 样本量 | 4 316 | 2 851 | 2 847 | 4 016 | 4 480 | 4 200 |
| R2 | 0.973 4 | 0.976 9 | 0.976 9 | 0.973 6 | 0.958 6 | 0.975 0 |
Tab.4 Robustness test results
| 变量 | 核密度匹配 | 近邻匹配 | 卡尺内近邻匹配 | 变更样本城市 | 排除极端值影响 | 被解释变量滞后1期 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| did | 0.035 9*** (6.88) | 0.036 0*** (5.31) | 0.035 9*** (5.30) | 0.035 9*** (6.59) | 0.043 4*** (7.22) | 0.034 1*** (6.70) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 城市固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 样本量 | 4 316 | 2 851 | 2 847 | 4 016 | 4 480 | 4 200 |
| R2 | 0.973 4 | 0.976 9 | 0.976 9 | 0.973 6 | 0.958 6 | 0.975 0 |
| 变量 | 农业规模扩张 | 农村创业活动 | 农业技术进步 |
|---|---|---|---|
| did | 0.028 2**(2.33) | 0.066 8***(2.61) | 0.046 7**(2.39) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 城市固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 样本量 | 4 480 | 4 480 | 4 480 |
| R2 | 0.958 4 | 0.852 5 | 0.930 2 |
Tab.5 Mechanism test results
| 变量 | 农业规模扩张 | 农村创业活动 | 农业技术进步 |
|---|---|---|---|
| did | 0.028 2**(2.33) | 0.066 8***(2.61) | 0.046 7**(2.39) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 城市固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 样本量 | 4 480 | 4 480 | 4 480 |
| R2 | 0.958 4 | 0.852 5 | 0.930 2 |
| 变量 | 区域异质性 | 收入水平异质性 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | 低收入水平 (q=0.25) | 中等收入水平 (q=0.50) | 高收入水平 (q=0.75) | |
| did | 0.020 6***(2.92) | 0.022 3***(3.76) | 0.024 8*(1.71) | 0.001 1(0.09) | 0.030 0** (2.34) | 0.041 1*** (2.81) | 0.056 8*** (2.85) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 城市固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 样本量 | 1 344 | 1 248 | 1 344 | 544 | 4 480 | 4 480 | 4 480 |
| R2 | 0.986 8 | 0.991 1 | 0.863 5 | 0.983 5 | 0.592 5 | 0.668 5 | 0.698 0 |
Tab.6 Heterogeneity analysis results
| 变量 | 区域异质性 | 收入水平异质性 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | 低收入水平 (q=0.25) | 中等收入水平 (q=0.50) | 高收入水平 (q=0.75) | |
| did | 0.020 6***(2.92) | 0.022 3***(3.76) | 0.024 8*(1.71) | 0.001 1(0.09) | 0.030 0** (2.34) | 0.041 1*** (2.81) | 0.056 8*** (2.85) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 城市固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 样本量 | 1 344 | 1 248 | 1 344 | 544 | 4 480 | 4 480 | 4 480 |
| R2 | 0.986 8 | 0.991 1 | 0.863 5 | 0.983 5 | 0.592 5 | 0.668 5 | 0.698 0 |
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