Measurement of the linkage level and spatial difference of greenfield investment between China and overseas economies

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.07.20250910

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution and political motivation characteristics of greenfield investment between China and overseas, this paper selects the greenfield investment data of China and overseas from 2010 to 2024, and studies it from three perspectives: the measurement of linkage level, its spatial difference and political factors. The results show that: ① The greenfield investment between China and overseas presents the fundamental characteristics of "the linkage strengthened from 2010 to 2018 and accelerated contraction from 2018 to 2024". 2018 is a critical turning point. Before that, greenfield investment was characterized by mutual investment between the two sides; but after that, the scale decreased and the contraction ratio significantly increased. The speed at which the linkage level of foreign greenfield investment in China turns to contraction was significantly higher than that of China's foreign investment. ② There are significant spatial and industrial differences in the linkage level of greenfield investment at the alliance scale: In political and security alliances, developed alliances have shown a systematic contraction from China due to high institutional synergy, while emerging alliances have shown resilience of linkage due to geographical proximity. In political and economic alliances, the Group of Seven leads the trend of contraction, while the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization, and the BRICS countries show contraction trend of investment linkage to China, with China's asymmetric feature of active strengthen. Regional integration alliances and other non-alliance economies show industrial dimension differences in contraction due to different factor orientations. ③ Political factors can affect the linkage level of greenfield investment: Geopolitical competition has increased the investment risk and accelerated the spatial differentiation of greenfield investment. Developed economies present an internal game between security considerations and economic rationality, which restricts the contraction of the linkage level with China; political friendship and compatible cooperation provide a stable investment environment and promote the strengthening of investment linkage between China and emerging and developing economies. Different industries adjust the intensity of the impact of political factors through strategic sensitivity and interest dependence.

Key words: greenfield investment, the linkage level, spatial difference, political factors, China

摘要：

为揭示中国与境外经济体绿地投资的时空演变规律及政治驱动特征，本文选取2010—2024年中国与境外经济体绿地投资数据，从联系水平的测度及其空间差异、政治因素三个维度展开研究。结果发现：①中国与境外经济体的绿地投资呈现“2010—2018年联系强化、2018—2024年收缩加速”的基本特征。2018年为关键拐点，此前绿地投资呈现双边互投格局，此后规模减小、收缩比例显著提高；外商对华绿地投资联系水平转向收缩的速度显著高于中国对外投资的转化速度。②联盟尺度的绿地投资联系水平存在显著空间与产业差异：政治与安全联盟中，发达联盟因高制度协同性对中国投资呈现系统性收缩，新兴联盟因地理临近等因素存在联系韧性；政治与经济联盟中，七国集团主导收缩趋势，呈现区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）、黑海经济合作组织、金砖国家对中国投资联系收缩、中国主动强化联系的不对称特征；区域性整合联盟与其他无联盟经济体因不同要素导向而呈现产业维度的差异性收缩。③政治因素能够影响绿地投资的联系水平：地缘博弈增加了投资风险，加速绿地投资联系的空间分化；发达经济体呈现安全考量与经济理性的内在博弈，制约其与中国联系水平的收缩程度；政治友好、兼容合作提供稳定的投资环境，推动中国与新兴市场与发展中经济体投资联系的强化；不同产业通过战略敏感度、利益依赖度等差异调节政治因素的影响强度。

关键词: 绿地投资, 联系水平, 空间差异, 政治因素, 中国

Huiran LIU, Yongchun YANG. Measurement of the linkage level and spatial difference of greenfield investment between China and overseas economies[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(7): 32-49.

刘惠冉, 杨永春. 中国与境外经济体绿地投资联系水平测度及其空间差异分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(7): 32-49.

Figures/Tables 13

Tab.1 Classification of industries

产业名称	行业名称
高新技术产业	航空航天、生物技术、商业机器和设备、通信、金融服务、医疗器械、制药业、可再生能源、半导体、软件与IT服务、太空与国防
资金密集型产业	汽车原始设备制造、建筑材料、化学制品、煤炭石油和天然气、发动机和涡轮、工业设备、金属、矿物、非汽车运输原始设备制造、房地产
劳动密集型产业	汽车零部件、商务服务、陶瓷与玻璃、电子消费品、消费品、电子元器件、餐饮服务、保健、酒店与旅游、休闲娱乐、纸张印刷和包装、塑料、橡胶、纺织品、运输与仓储、木制品

Tab.2 Classification and Basis of Measurement

类型		依据
联系收缩	低联型	$1 k < 0, λ = 0, 且 α < 0; 2 k = 0, 且 ∑ I = 0$
联系收缩	衰减型	$k < 0,0 < λ < 10 %, 且 α < 0$
联系调整	波动型	$k = 0, 且 ∑ I ≠ 0$
联系调整	弱化型	除联系收缩外，其他 $k < 0$ 情况
联系强化	增强型	除深化型外，其他 $k > 0$ 情况
联系强化	深化型	$k > 0, λ ≥ 200 %, 且 α > 0$

Tab.2 Classification and Basis of Measurement

类型		依据
联系收缩	低联型	$1 k < 0, λ = 0, 且 α < 0; 2 k = 0, 且 ∑ I = 0$
联系收缩	衰减型	$k < 0,0 < λ < 10 %, 且 α < 0$
联系调整	波动型	$k = 0, 且 ∑ I ≠ 0$
联系调整	弱化型	除联系收缩外，其他 $k < 0$ 情况
联系强化	增强型	除深化型外，其他 $k > 0$ 情况
联系强化	深化型	$k > 0, λ ≥ 200 %, 且 α > 0$

Fig.1 Changes in the amount of greenfield investment and industrial structure between China and overseas economies from 2010 to 2024

Fig.2 Spatial differentiation of the linkage level of greenfield investment between China and overseas economies from 2010 to 2024

Fig.3 Differentiation of the linkage level of greenfield investment between China and the political and security alliance from 2010 to 2024

Fig.4 Differentiation of the linkage level of greenfield investment between China and the political and economic alliance from 2010 to 2024

Fig.5 Differentiation of the linkage level of greenfield investment between China and the regional integration alliance from 2010 to 2024

Fig.6 Differentiation of the linkage level of greenfield investment between China and the resource-based alliance and non-alliance economies from 2010 to 2024

Fig.7 The logical relationship between political factors and greenfield investment

Fig.8 Changes in political distance between China and the world countries from 2010 to 2024

Fig.9 Corresponding relationship of greenfield investment and political distance between china and developed economies from 2010 to 2024

Fig.10 Corresponding relationship of greenfield investment and political distance between China and emerging market and developing economies from 2010 to 2024

Fig.11 Corresponding relationship of greenfield investment and political distance in industrial dimension between China and different economies from 2010 to 2024

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