Abstract:

Since 2008, under the impact of the global financial crisis, trade conflicts, the COVID-19 and its geopolitical conflicts, the traditional economic globalization has suffered an unprecedented impact. Economic globalization presents a new narrative, which has a profound impact on the global value chain. This study uses social network analysis methods and GeoDetector to explore the structure evolution and influencing factors of the global value chain in the Indo-Pacific region based on the OECD-TIVA database data. Research has found that: ①The global value chain network in the Indo-Pacific region is showing an increasingly loose trend, with significant "small world" characteristics. ②The global value chain network in the Indo-Pacific region is increasingly fragmented, with China, Japan, and the United States becoming the "three core leading" forces; India is beginning to rise, and its pivotal role is becoming increasingly apparent; other small and medium-sized countries are further marginalized, and the characteristics of "marginalized small groups" in these countries are becoming increasingly prominent. ③The trend of modularization in the global value chain of the Indo-Pacific region has further strengthened, highlighting the characteristics of "small groups". ④Research has found that: Data elements reflecting innovation, national economic scale elements reflecting the fluctuation of economic strength, economic liberalization elements reflecting trade conflicts, and institutional distance reflecting economic coordination have the most critical impact on the structure evolution of the global value chain in the Indo-Pacific region.The structure evolution of the global value chain in the Indo-Pacific region is the result of the joint action of various factors, and the two-factor interaction is stronger than a single factor.This research has important theoretical significance and practical value for us to systematically understand the structural evolution of the global value chain in the Indo-Pacific region and make scientific responses.

Key words: global value chain, structure evolution, influencing factors, Indo-Pacific region

摘要：

2008年以来，在全球金融危机、贸易冲突、新冠疫情及地缘冲突的相继冲击下，传统的经济全球化遭遇了前所未有的挑战，进而经济全球化呈现出新的叙事，对全球价值链产生了深远影响。本研究基于OECD-TIVA数据库，运用社会网络分析法和地理探测器对印太地区全球价值链的结构演进及其影响因素进行探究。研究发现：①印太地区全球价值链网络呈现松散化的趋势，具有显著的“小世界”特征。②印太地区全球价值链网络日益分化，中国、日本和美国成为“三核引领”力量；印度开始崛起，其枢纽作用愈发显现；其他中小国家则进一步被边缘化，其“边缘小团体”特征日益显著。③印太地区全球价值链的板块化趋势进一步加强，“小群体”特征进一步凸显。④基于“供给-需求-环境-距离”分析框架的研究，发现反映创新的数据要素、反映经济实力的国家经济规模要素、反映贸易冲突的经济自由化要素以及反映经济协调的制度距离对印太地区全球价值链的结构演进产生了较为关键的影响；印太地区全球价值链网络结构演进是各因子共同作用的结果，且双因子交互作用强于单因子作用。本研究对于系统了解印太地区全球价值链的结构演进、为印太地区做出科学应对具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。

关键词: 全球价值链, 结构演进, 影响因素, 印太地区