长江南京以下港口城市可持续效率演变与影响因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.07.20220095

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

长江下游12.5 m深水航道的建成对长江南京以下港口与城市的发展具有重要影响。将港口系统与城市系统相结合，采用二阶段SBM-DEA模型对长江南京以下9个港口城市的可持续效率进行测算，结果表明：长江三角洲地区港口城市可持续效率值逐年增长；在空间分布上，可持续效率存在局部地区的效率值波动，呈现临海港口高于内河港口。产业结构、对外贸易量对港口城市可持续效率具有显著正向影响，而经济水平、人口密度和人才数量对其具有负向影响。研究丰富了港城互动方面的研究，可为促进港城绿色建设、提高港口城市可持续发展效率提供有益参考。

关键词: 长江深水航道, 港城发展, 可持续效率, 影响因素, 港口

Abstract:

The completion of 12.5 m deep water navigation channel in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River has an important impact on the development of port cities from Nanjing to Shanghai. In this research, we put the port system and the urban system into a holistic analysis system framework, the sustainable efficiency of nine port cities below the Nanjing on the Yangtze River is calculated by using the two stage SBM-DEA Model. The results showed that the sustainable efficiency of different port cities was all increased from 2011 to 2019. In terms of spatial distribution, the sustainable efficiency fluctuates in some regions, and the oceanic port was higher than the inland ports. And the industrial structure and foreign trade volume have a significant positive impact on the sustainable efficiency of the port cities, but economic level, population density and the number of talents have a negative correlation with sustainable efficiency of port cities. The comprehensive research on Port Geography and Urban Geography would enrich the understanding about the port-city interaction, and hopes that could contribute to the future researches on the port city sustainable development.

Key words: deep water navigation channel of the Yangtze River, port city development, sustainable efficiency, impact factors, port

陈宇奇, 蒋雪中. 长江南京以下港口城市可持续效率演变与影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(7): 116-127.

Yuqi CHEN, Xuezhong JIANG. Evolution and influencing factors of sustainable efficiency of port cities below Nanjing on the Yangtze River[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(7): 116-127.

图/表 9

参考文献 36

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系统	指标	变量	单位	最大值	最小值	均值	标准差
港口	投入指标	码头长度	米	126 900	3 111	31 414.62	33 776.47
	投入指标	泊位数量	个	1 300	93	444.22	356.61
	输出指标	货物吞吐量	万吨	77 574.6	7 384.5	26 683.98	20 150.68
城市	投入指标	建成区面积	平方公里	1 237.9	163	477.91	321.96
		劳动力人数	万人	1 376.2	182.14	376.45	145.14
		总耗电量	亿千瓦时	1 562.49	151.09	482.63	356.14
		货物吞吐量	万吨	77 574.6	7 384.5	26 683.98	20 150.68
	期望产出	GDP	亿元	38 155.32	1 956.64	9 098.06	7 798.581
	非期望产出	CO₂	百万吨	230.71	29.08	75.52	52.90
	非期望产出	SO₂	万吨	26.32	0.61	6.6193	5.46

系统	指标	变量	单位	最大值	最小值	均值	标准差
港口	投入指标	码头长度	米	126 900	3 111	31 414.62	33 776.47
	投入指标	泊位数量	个	1 300	93	444.22	356.61
	输出指标	货物吞吐量	万吨	77 574.6	7 384.5	26 683.98	20 150.68
城市	投入指标	建成区面积	平方公里	1 237.9	163	477.91	321.96
		劳动力人数	万人	1 376.2	182.14	376.45	145.14
		总耗电量	亿千瓦时	1 562.49	151.09	482.63	356.14
		货物吞吐量	万吨	77 574.6	7 384.5	26 683.98	20 150.68
	期望产出	GDP	亿元	38 155.32	1 956.64	9 098.06	7 798.581
	非期望产出	CO₂	百万吨	230.71	29.08	75.52	52.90
	非期望产出	SO₂	万吨	26.32	0.61	6.6193	5.46

年份	港口			城市			可持续
年份	综合技术效率	纯技术效率	规模效率	综合技术效率	纯技术效率	规模效率	综合技术效率	纯技术效率	规模效率
2010	0.416 4	1.013 7	0.419 4	0.343 1	0.742 7	0.544 9	0.379 7	0.878 2	0.482 2
2011	0.440 8	0.945 4	0.464 0	0.382 1	0.709 8	0.613 3	0.411 4	0.827 6	0.538 6
2012	0.444 5	0.877 1	0.494 0	0.417 1	0.696 5	0.658 1	0.430 8	0.786 8	0.576 1
2013	0.457 9	0.842 2	0.520 1	0.441 9	0.683 3	0.693 2	0.449 9	0.762 8	0.606 6
2014	0.455 5	0.805 4	0.542 9	0.478 2	0.704 0	0.719 8	0.466 8	0.754 7	0.631 4
2015	0.461 3	0.801 5	0.549 8	0.516 3	0.751 4	0.728 8	0.488 8	0.776 4	0.639 3
2016	0.438 0	0.714 3	0.588 6	0.570 3	0.775 8	0.762 7	0.504 1	0.745 1	0.675 6
2017	0.464 8	0.703 3	0.633 0	0.714 6	0.866 9	0.837 6	0.589 7	0.785 1	0.735 3
2018	0.485 7	0.703 6	0.688 8	0.774 2	0.923 4	0.846 1	0.629 9	0.813 5	0.767 4
2019	0.573 6	0.806 7	0.728 7	0.907 5	0.979 2	0.923 8	0.740 6	0.892 9	0.826 2
均值	0.463 8	0.821 3	0.562 9	0.554 5	0.783 3	0.732 8	0.509 2	0.802 3	0.647 9

年份	港口			城市			可持续
年份	综合技术效率	纯技术效率	规模效率	综合技术效率	纯技术效率	规模效率	综合技术效率	纯技术效率	规模效率
2010	0.416 4	1.013 7	0.419 4	0.343 1	0.742 7	0.544 9	0.379 7	0.878 2	0.482 2
2011	0.440 8	0.945 4	0.464 0	0.382 1	0.709 8	0.613 3	0.411 4	0.827 6	0.538 6
2012	0.444 5	0.877 1	0.494 0	0.417 1	0.696 5	0.658 1	0.430 8	0.786 8	0.576 1
2013	0.457 9	0.842 2	0.520 1	0.441 9	0.683 3	0.693 2	0.449 9	0.762 8	0.606 6
2014	0.455 5	0.805 4	0.542 9	0.478 2	0.704 0	0.719 8	0.466 8	0.754 7	0.631 4
2015	0.461 3	0.801 5	0.549 8	0.516 3	0.751 4	0.728 8	0.488 8	0.776 4	0.639 3
2016	0.438 0	0.714 3	0.588 6	0.570 3	0.775 8	0.762 7	0.504 1	0.745 1	0.675 6
2017	0.464 8	0.703 3	0.633 0	0.714 6	0.866 9	0.837 6	0.589 7	0.785 1	0.735 3
2018	0.485 7	0.703 6	0.688 8	0.774 2	0.923 4	0.846 1	0.629 9	0.813 5	0.767 4
2019	0.573 6	0.806 7	0.728 7	0.907 5	0.979 2	0.923 8	0.740 6	0.892 9	0.826 2
均值	0.463 8	0.821 3	0.562 9	0.554 5	0.783 3	0.732 8	0.509 2	0.802 3	0.647 9

变量	变量名称/符号	变量定义	单位
被解释变量	可持续效率/ Y	各港口城市可持续效率值
解释变量	经济水平/ X₁	人均GDP	人/万元
	人口密度/ X₂	常住人口与城市行政面积之比	人/km²
	产业结构/ X₃	第三产业占比	%
	人才数量/ X₄	普通高等院校人数	万人
	贸易往来/ X₅	对外贸易量	亿元